A Monthly Indicator of the French Business Climate

Transcription

1 Direcion des Éudes e Synhèses Économiques G 29 / 2 A Monhly Indicaor of he French Business Climae Lauren CLAVEL - Chriselle MINODIER Documen de ravail Insiu Naional de la Saisique e des Éudes Économiques

2 INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE ET DES ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES Série des documens de ravail de la Direcion des Éudes e Synhèses Économiques G 29 / 2 A Monhly Indicaor of he French Business Climae Lauren CLAVEL*, Chriselle MINODIER** MAI 29 We address our special hanks o Éric Dubois and Philippe Scherrer for heir useful readings and commens. * Faisai parie du Déparemen de la conjoncure - Division «Synhèse conjoncurelle» Timbre G4-5, bd Gabriel Péri - BP MALAKOFF CEDEX - au momen de la rédacion de ce documen. ** Déparemen de la conjoncure - Division «Enquêes de conjoncure» Timbre G2-5, bd Gabriel Péri - BP MALAKOFF CEDEX Déparemen de la Conjoncure - Timbre G - 5, bd Gabriel Péri - BP MALAKOFF CEDEX - France - Tél. : 33 () Fax : 33 () dg75-g@insee.fr - Sie Web INSEE : hp:// Ces documens de ravail ne reflèen pas la posiion de l INSEE e n'engagen que leurs aueurs. Working papers do no reflec he posiion of INSEE bu only heir auhor's views.

3 2 A Monhly Indicaor of he French Business Climae Absrac In France, he business endency surveys conduced in all he imporan secors of he economy are key componens in diagnosing he economic oulook. Over he years, INSEE has gradually inroduced business climae indicaors for each business secor. Such indicaors summarise he daa conained in he many balances of opinion supplied by he surveys and enable o measure he economic siuaion each monh. An indicaor of his kind has been lacking, however, for he economy as he whole. To fill his gap and enrich he exising panel of business climae indicaors we provide in his paper he firs composie indicaor based on French business surveys covering all he imporan economic secors of he French economy. We chose he dynamic facor analysis o deal wih mixed and changing frequencies and ime availabiliy of he daa. Parameers are esimaed by maximum likelihood based on he Kalman filer. Several indicaors can be esimaed according o he ype (secor-based business climae indicaors or elemenary componens) and he number of variables included in he model. To validae our resuls and choose he bes indicaor, we defined hree crieria : real-ime sabiliy, predicive accuracy o forecas GDP growh and abiliy o reproduce French business cycles. The new monhly synheic indicaor which passed he ess bes allows a clear and simple inerpreaion of all he business surveys and can deliver each monh an early and accurae quaniaive message concerning he curren business climae in France. This indicaor can also be used o improve GDP growh forecas. Keywords: business survey, dynamic facor analysis, unobserved componens model, Kalman filer. Un indicaeur mensuel de clima des affaires en France Résumé Les enquêes de conjoncure auprès des enreprises, réalisées dans chacun des principaux seceurs de l économie, consiuen en France un ingrédien esseniel à l éablissemen d un diagnosic conjoncurel. Au fil des ans, l Insee a progressivemen mis en place des indicaeurs secoriels de clima des affaires permean de résumer l informaion conenue dans les nombreux soldes d opinion fournis par ces enquêes. Ces indicaeurs de clima des affaires, quaniaifs e coïncidens, permeen de mesurer chaque mois l éa de la conjoncure. Un el indicaeur manquai au niveau de l ensemble de l économie. Pour compléer le panel d indicaeurs exisans, nous fournissons dans le présen documen le premier indicaeur composie basé sur des enquêes de conjoncure couvran ous les seceurs économiques imporans de l'économie française. L héérogénéié des fréquences, les changemens de fréquence en cours de période e les différences de disponibilié des données nous on condui à uiliser l'analyse facorielle dynamique. Les paramères son esimés par maximum de vraisemblance basé sur le filre de Kalman. Plusieurs indicaeurs de clima des affaires peuven êre esimés selon le ype e le nombre de variables reenus dans le modèle. Le choix du meilleur indicaeur de clima des affaires s es appuyé sur rois crières : sabilié en emps réel, capacié à prévoir le PIB e capacié à reracer les cycles conjoncurels français. Le nouvel indicaeur de clima des affaires alors obenu offre une inerpréaion claire e simple de l ensemble des enquêes de conjoncure auprès des enreprises e perme de quanifier assez précisémen chaque mois l éa de la conjoncure française. Il perme égalemen de fournir une bonne prévision de la croissance économique à cour erme. Mos-clés : enquêes de conjoncure, analyse facorielle dynamique, modèles à composanes inobservées, filre de Kalman. Classificaion JEL : E32, E66, L

4 3 Table of conens Inroducion... 4 I - Survey daa and simple composie indexes... 5 II - The advanage of dynamic analysis... 7 III - The ess used o selec he final indicaor... 8 IV - Performance of he reained index... 3 Conclusion... 4 References... 4 Appendix: exhausive lis of balances used in he differen CIs... 5 Box: Dynamic facor analysis... 6

5 4 Inroducion The surveys conduced by naional saisical insiues are inensively used for shor-erm forecasing of he economic aciviy. Since here is a large number of available survey variables, composie indexes (CI) have been developed over he years o provide suiable summaries by exracing he common rend, and suppressing he undesirable "noise" of numerous daa. CIs have considerably flourished for analyzing and forecasing he French economic siuaion, firs in he indusry secor (Doz and Lenglar (999)), hen in he services (Bouon and Erkel-Rousse (23)), finally in he oher secors (building indusry, wholesale and reail rade, see Conjoncure in France in June 26, March 27 and June 28). These indicaors apply however o individual secors and an indicaor of his kind has been lacking for he economy as he whole. To fill his gap and enrich he exising panel of CIs, we provide in his paper he firs composie index based on all hese surveys. This indicaor gives an assessmen of he global climae of he whole French economy. The heerogeneiy of daa frequencies (monhly, bimonhly or quarerly), changes in frequency during he period and differences in daa availabiliy (since 976 in he indusry, since 988 in services ) lead us o use he dynamic facor analysis. Parameers are esimaed by maximum likelihood based on he Kalman filer.

6 5 I - Survey daa and simple composie indexes The following able summarizes he availabiliy and frequency of five major surveys produced by Insee in indusry, services, consrucion, wholesale rade and reail rade. Table : survey availabiliy and frequency Indusry Services Building ind. Non Available Quarerly Monhly Quarerly Monhly Wholesale rade Non Available Bimonhly Reail rade Non Available Monhly Since 2 Monhly Composie indexes, also known as secor business climaes, have been buil for each of hese five surveys. To build an index synhesizing hese survey daa, a firs, fairly simple and sponaneous idea is o consider a weighed average (wih consan coefficiens, for example esimaed by regression on GDP, or by aking he share of each secor in GDP) of he five secor-specific CIs. In he same vein, he principal componen analysis (PCA) or saic facor analysis (of he secor-specific CIs, or of all he balances enering hese CIs, or of a selecion of heses balances) can be used o esimae a linear combinaion maximizing he explained variance. These mehods are however saic and herefore require o inerpolae (here linearly) balances ha are no available on a monhly basis (services before June 2 and wholesale rade on he whole period for examples) and o ake as he esimaion period he longes period of common availabiliy. For example, we presen below (see Char ) a few simple indexes buil on several of hese mehods. These indexes are graphically very close and appear quie readable. However, and his is heir main drawback (besides he fac ha

7 6 hey involve reamen of missing daa), hey exis only from he end of 993, which limis he abiliy o validae hem, in a pseudo real-ime exercise in paricular. Therefore, he desire o have a synheic index over a long period leads us o choose he dynamic facor analysis, which was previously used o build he CI in he services secor. Char : comparison of saic CIs Saic facor analysis (secoral CIs) Weighed average of secoral CIs Principal componen analysis (balances) Saic facor analysis (balances) Principal componen analysis (secoral CIs)

8 7 II - The advanage of dynamic analysis The dynamic facor models are currenly used in many areas of he economy (see Geweke (977), Sock and Wason (989, 22), Forni e al. (2)). In such models, emporal observed variables (here he balances of opinion) are supposed o depend linearly on a few underlying unobservable variables, known as facors. Two mehods are mainly used for heir esimaion. The firs lies in he frequency domain and consiss in performing a specific breakdown of he specral densiy of he vecor process formed by all he variables sudied. The second lies in he ime domain and requires modeling he dynamics of facors, and hen o esimae hem by Kalman filer (see box for a complee descripion of he mehodology). To esimae a global climae of he French economy we have esed four ses of variables aken from he five main business surveys. - he firs se consiss simply of he 5 secor-specific CIs (CI5); - he second se consiss of he 26 balances enering he secor-specific CIs (CI26; see appendix for he exhausive lis of balances). In addiion, aking ino consideraion he ime of esimaion in he regular producion process, we have also ried o resric he number of balances enering he indicaor o a smaller number (2), and have hus esimaed: - a hird composie indicaor based on a firs selecion of 2 balances enering he secor-specific CIs; he selecion is made hrough a firs dynamic facor analysis: we consider he balances for which he associaed loading is sricly above he median of he loadings. This purely saisic selecion (more «objecive») leads o reain no balances from he survey in he building indusry (CI2obj) ; - a fourh composie indicaor based on a second selecion of 2 balances enering he secor-specific CIs (IC2subj); he selecion is made in a more «subjecive» manner, by reaining he main balances in each secor (ie he balances wih he sronges coefficiens for he secor-specific composie indicaor). The four CIs (average and sandard-deviaion on he period) are very close (cf. char 2). Char 2: comparison of he dynamic CIs IC5 IC26 IC2obj IC2subj

9 8 III - The ess used o selec he final indicaor In order o choose he bes CI, we use hree crieria linked o heir pracical use: Real-ime sabiliy: we wan o check ha adding new observaions does no dramaically change he esimaion on he previous period. Specifically, we perform a recursive esimaion of he four previous CIs on he following periods: January 98 January 999, January 98 February January 98 November 24, January 98 - December 24. Then we compare he 72 esimaes (see char 3 and able 2), firs by considering he average maximum revisions for a given monh m (ha is o say he difference beween he highes value of he indicaor on he real-ime period January December 24 and he lowes value on he same period), hen by calculaing he average revision afer one (respecively wo) monh(s), id es by compuing he gap beween he CI firs esimae on monh m and he value on monh m of he CI esimaed one (respecively wo) monh(s) laer. In he case of CI5, we iniially esimaed each secor-specific facor in real ime, and hen we esimaed in real-ime he synheic index buil on hese secor-specific facors: his herefore leads o he CI ha would have been esimaed a each dae 2. Moreover, given he nonavailabiliy of he general oulook in he services survey before June 2, he real-ime esimaes presened below were made by excluding his balance. We noe ha he index sabiliy increases wih he number of componens. In paricular he insabiliy of he composie index buil on secor-specific facors is paricularly obvious compared o he very low revisions of he index buil on 26 balances. CI5 (secor-specific facors) Chars 3: CI revisions CI26 (balances) CI2obj (balances) CI2subj (balances) On he period No aking ino accoun he, generally limied, revisions of survey daa.

10 9 Table 2 CI5 CI26 CI2obj CI2subj average monh revision afer 2 monhs common period Noe: daa are expressed in index poins Deecion of urning poins: an imporan poin in economic analysis concerns he deecion of urning poins. Even if he CIs are no opimized for his purpose (unlike he urning poin indexes), i seems ineresing o measure he relevance of a daing made from hese facors and o check wheher his daing enables o properly deec reversals in real ime. Specifically, we compare he daings obained from he CIs (esimaed in par 3.) o a reference daing buil on GDP year-on-year changes (see Table 3). All daings are esimaed using he Bry and Boschan s mehod (97). Given he pracical use of his ype of indicaor, one wishes ha he iming is advanced or coinciden wih ha of GDP, o measure he overall relevance of daing, herefore we consruc a funcion ha penalizes more severely lags above hree monhs and which favors leads over lags (see Char 4); echnically we measure he number of monhs needed o deec peaks and roughs. The equaion of he penalizing funcion is he following: (x+3)²+3 for x<-3 ; -x for -3<x< ; 2.x for <x<3 ; 2.(x-3)² for x>3; 6 Char 4: funcion used o compare daings

11 Table 3: leads and lags in daings compared o he reference daing GDP (reference) CI5 CI26 CI2obj CI2subj rough 98m5 - - peak 982m8 ND -5-6 ND rough 983m ND - -5 ND peak 984m ND ND ND ND rough 985m5 ND ND ND ND peak 989m rough 99m ND -7 ND -4 peak 992m5 ND - ND ND rough 993m ND peak 995m rough 996m8 3 - peak 998m5 ND rough 999m8 ND peak 2m rough 22m2 ND -2-3 ND peak 23m2 ND -7-7 ND rough 23m8 ND peak 25m2 ND Noe: a negaive (resp. posiive) figure poins o a lead (resp. a lag) compared o he reference daing; AME = absolue mean error. ND : No deeced A firs look a he RMSE, AME and he score deriving from he comparison funcion would lead us o conclude ha CI5 and CI2subj are he bes indicaors o deec urning poins. Bu boh fail o deec several peaks and roughs. To ake his ino accoun, we replace ND by 2 (he non-deecion of a peak or a rough is equivalen o deec his peak or rough wih an imporan delay, se convenionally o one year). Afer his correcion, he resuls are raher differen (see able 4). CI26 appears as he bes index in erms of overall closeness wih he daing of reference. CI2obj is quie good as well (see chars 5) whereas CI5 and CI2subj (which were already he less sable) are clearly worse. Table 4: Comparisons resuls CI5 CI26 CI2obj CI2subj Wihou penalizaion for missing deecion RMSE,2,9,,8 AME 2,5 3, 3,4 2, score CMLC 4,5 5,4 6,7 2,3 Wih penalizaion for missing deecion RMSE 2,3,2,6,9 AME 8,8 4, 5,3 6,5 score CMLC 3,5 23,5 42,6 75,9

12 Chars 5: daing confronaion CI26 and reference 3, 2,7,3, - -,3-2 -,7-3 -, 98m 98m9 98m5 982m 982m9 983m5 984m 984m9 985m5 986m 986m9 987m5 988m 988m9 989m5 99m 99m9 99m5 992m 992m9 993m5 994m 994m9 995m5 996m 996m9 997m5 998m 998m9 999m5 2m 2m9 2m5 22m 22m9 23m5 24m 24m9 25m5 daing upon CI26 GDP daing (y o y) GDP (y o y changes) CI2obj and reference 3, 2,7,3, - -,3-2 -,7-3 -, 98m 98m9 98m5 982m 982m9 983m5 984m 984m9 985m5 986m 986m9 987m5 988m 988m9 989m5 99m 99m9 99m5 992m 992m9 993m5 994m 994m9 995m5 996m 996m9 997m5 998m 998m9 999m5 2m 2m9 2m5 22m 22m9 23m5 24m 24m9 25m5 daing upon CI2obj GDP daing (y o y) GDP (y o y changes) GDP growh forecas: he secor-specific CIs are radiionally used o forecas aciviy in he secor, especially in univariae models. To validae our indicaor, we esimae a regression of GDP growh on each CI over he period and compare he in-sample resuls. Coefficiens and residuals pass he usual specificaion ess. These models are obained using he algorihm of auomaic variable selecion implemened in he Scilab oolbox Grocer 3. The framework is he one reained in INSEE s forecas exercise, id es he curren quarer is forecas wih survey daa from he second monh of he quarer ("nowcas"). Models are specified in he same way for all he CIs: regressors are a consan, he firs lag of GDP, he synheic index level and is las wo monhly variaions. However, when using CI2obj, he firs lag of GDP is poorly significan and he model could 3 hp://dubois.ensae.ne/grocer.hml and hp://dubois.ensae.ne/grocer4.pdf

13 2 be simpler, wihou any lag of GDP and wih a single monhly variaion of he facor 4. The model which presens he bes performance is based on CI2subj (see Table 4). CI5 and CI26 have similar properies. Table 5 CI5 CI26 CI2obj CI2subj adjused R² DW RMSE in-sample We also compare he forecasing performance of he composie indicaors wih models based on French PMI or on he European climae index for France (source: European Commission). Table 5 bis ESI PMI CI2subj adjused R² DW RMSE in-sample Esimaion period : (shorer period due o he non availabiliy of PMI before 999) 4 The performance of his simpler model is almos he same as he performance of he complee one.

14 3 IV - Performance of he reained index Upon compleion of his work, we choose he bes CI on he basis of he differen real-ime esimaes in erms of sabiliy, deecion of cyclical urning poins and GDP growh forecas. In he end, hese crieria would lead o reain he synheic index buil on he 26 balances wihin he secor-specific facors or he synheic indicaor based on an objecive selecion of 2 balances. Indeed i appears as he bes indicaor according o our crieria (see Table 6). CI2obj is performing quie well eiher. Neverheless, even if he use in producion (compuaion ime) would advocae considering a more limied number of balances, CI2obj has a main drawback: he 2 balances enering CI2obj do no conain any variable of he building indusry survey. I migh be a huge problem if his secor experiences very specific evoluions. Therefore we evenually choose CI26. Table 6 CI5 CI26 CI2obj CI2subj Sabiliy (See Table2) Turning poins deecion (See Table 4) Growh forecas (See Table 5) Toal score Noes: The figures correspond o he rank of he CI according each crierion: for he bes CI and 4 for he wors. As he sabiliy is he mos imporan crierion, he oal score is calculaed as he sum of wice he score for firs crierion, plus he scores for he urning poins deecion and growh forecas crieria. The bes composie indicaor is he one wih he lowes oal score. Char 6: The new French business climae and GDP Growh French business climae GDP (y o y changes)

15 4 Conclusion The indicaor inroduced in his paper is an addiion o he Insee oolbox dedicaed o shorerm analysis. By aking advanage of he well-known Kalman filer, his all-secor synheic indicaor, combining monhly, bimonhly and quarerly series coming from several business surveys allows a clear inerpreaion of all he business surveys. Furhermore, i delivers an early quaniaive message concerning he French economic oulook. Lasly, his new monhly business climae can be useful o forecas for example he quarerly growh rae of he GDP, all he more ha he analys can ake advanage of he informaion released each monh o updae he forecas. References Bouon F. e Erkel-Rousse H. (23), «Conjoncures secorielles e prévision à cour erme de l acivié : l appor de l enquêe de conjoncure dans les services», Économie e Saisique, n Bry G. e Boschan C. (97), «Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Seleced Procedures and Compuer Programs», NBER Technical Paper. Cornec M., Deperraz T. (26), «Un nouvel indicaeur synhéique résuman le clima des affaires dans les services en France», Économie e Saisique, n Doz C. e Lenglar F. (999), «Analyse facorielle dynamique : es du nombre de faceurs, esimaion e applicaion à l enquêe de conjoncure dans l indusrie», Annales d Économie e de Saisique, n 54, pp Dubois É. (24), «Grocer., an Economeric Toolbox for Scilab: a Scilab Poin of View», presened a he firs Scilab Inernaional conference. Forni M., Hallin M., Lippi M. e Reichlin L. (2), «The Generalized Dynamic Facor Model: Idenificaion and Esimaion», The Review of Economics and Saisics, vol. 82, n 4, pp Geweke J. (977), «The Dynamic Facor Analysis of Economic Time Series», in D.J. Aigner e A.S. Goldberger (eds.), Laen Variables in Socio-Economic Models, pp , Norh-Holland, Amserdam. Gregoir S. e Lenglar F. (2), «Measuring he probabiliy of a business cycle urning poin by using a mulivariae qualiaive hidden Markov model», Journal of Forecasing. Kim C. e Nelson C. (999), Sae-Space Models wih Regime Swiching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches wih Applicaions, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Sock J.H. e Wason M.W. (989), «New Indexes of Coinciden and Leading Economic Indexes», NBER Macroeconomics Annual 989, MIT Press, Cambridge, pp Sock J.H. e Wason M.W. (22), «Macroeconomic Forecasing Using Diffusion Indexes», Journal of Business and Economic Saisics, vol. 2, n 2, pp

16 5 Appendix: exhausive lis of balances used in he differen CIs In brackes, he frequency of each variable a he end of he period. Indeed, he frequency of some of hem changed over ime. PATOV_SERV : pas evoluion of urnover in services (monhly) EXTOV_SERV : expeced evoluion of urnover in services (monhly) GENO_SERV : general oulook in services (monhly) EXDEM_SERV : expeced demand in services (quarerly) PAOPP_SERV : pas evoluion of operaing profi in services (quarerly) EXOPP_SERV : expeced evoluion of operaing profi in services (quarerly) GENO_IND : PAPROD_IND : EXPROD_IND : INV_IND : EXFOR_IND : EXOOR_IND : PAACT_BUI : EXACT_BUI : LOR_ BUI : PAEMP_BUI : CLCU_BUI : OOR_RET : GENO_RET : PASALE_RET : EXEMP_RET : general oulook in indusry (monhly) pas producion in indusry (monhly) expeced producion in indusry (monhly) level of invenories in indusry (monhly) expeced foreign orders in indusry (monhly) expeced overall orders in indusry (monhly) pas evoluion of aciviy in building (monhly) expeced evoluion of aciviy in building (monhly) level of orders in building (monhly) pas evoluion of number of employees (monhly) curren level of capaciy uilizaion (monhly) overall orders in reail rade (monhly) general oulook in reail rade (monhly) pas evoluion of sales in reail rade (monhly) expeced evoluion of numbers of employees in reail rade (monhly) PASALE_WHO : pas evoluion of sales in wholesale rade (bimonhly) PAFSALE_WHO : pas evoluion of foreign sales in wholesale rade (bimonhly) OOR_WHO : overall orders in wholesale rade (bimonhly) GENO_WHO : general oulook in wholesale rade (bimonhly) FORDEL_WHO : foreign deliveries in wholesale rade (bimonhly)

17 6 Box: Dynamic facor analysis The unobserved componens model Each balance of opinion is modelled as he sum of wo unobserved erms: - a erm proporional o he common facor ( λ F i ); - a componen specific o he considered balance of opinion and called a residual ( u i ). In our conex we are confroning wih wo ypes of difficulies: muliple frequencies (quarerly, bimonhly and monhly series) and breaks in frequencies (for example, he series on expeced urnover in services became monhly in June 2). So, he saic facor analysis is no appropriae o handle his case. Following Doz and Lenglar, we consider his problem in a dynamic facor analysis framework and choose an ARMA(2,) dynamic for he common facor and an AR() for he residuals. Thus, we ge he following monhly parameric model: yi = λif + ui F = ϕ F + ϕ 2 ui = ρi ui + ε i F 2 + ε θ ε The common facor F being defined up o a muliplicaive consan, we se: V( ε ) =. ( ε ) and ( ε i ) are he innovaions of respecively ( F ) and ( u i ) ; ( ε ) and ( ε i ) are 2 independen gaussian whie noises, wih respecive variances and σ i. y ( i =... n ) represen he n balances of opinion. They are sandardized. i The real parameers of his model are: Recall for example ha: - his is a monhly model; - all variables are no observed every monh. λ ϕ ϕ θ σ, ρ i,, 2,, i i. Laen sae-space represenaion of he model The unobserved componens model admis he following linear sae-space represenaion: y = Z α α = Aα + w α ~ N(, Σ) ( iniial condiion) where: - y is he column vecor of balances of opinion for every monh ; he dimension n of his vecor changes over ime since according o he number of daa available a given monh (for example he quarerly series are observed only every hree monhs); hus here is no reamen for missing daa;

18 7 - Z is he measuremen marix; he number of lines of Z is equal o he number of observaions a ime ; - α is he sae vecor, )' ',,, ( u F F ε α = wih )'...,, ( n u u u = ; - = n A ρ ρ θ ϕ ϕ O 2 ; - = = = ) ( ; ; n Id R R w n ε ε ε η η M ; - ' ) ( ; ) ( ; ) ( ; ) ( 2 2 R B R w V w E B V E n = = = = = σ σ η η O Esimaion of he parameers and definiion of he synheic indicaor The parameers are esimaed by likelihood maximizaion, wih an ARMA(2,) dynamic of he common facor. This dynamic is indeed he one inensively used for such modelizaion. Once he parameers of he model are esimaed, he composie indicaor can be compued. This indicaor is he expecaion of he common facor F condiional on he informaion up o : ) ( ˆ I F E F CI = =.

19 8

20 Lise des documens de ravail de la Direcion des Éudes e Synhèses Économiques ii G 9 G 92 G 93 G 94 G 95 G 9 G 92 G 93 G 94 G 95 G 96 G 97 G 98 G 99 G 9 G 9 G 92 G 93 G 92 G 922 J. FAYOLLE e M. FLEURBAEY Accumulaion, profiabilié e endeemen des enreprises H. ROUSSE Déecion e effes de la mulicolinéarié dans les modèles linéaires ordinaires - Un prolongemen de la réflexion de BELSLEY, KUH e WELSCH P. RALLE e J. TOUJAS-BERNATE Indexaion des salaires : la rupure de 983 D. GUELLEC e P. RALLE Compéiivié, croissance e innovaion de produi P. RALLE e J. TOUJAS-BERNATE Les conséquences de la désindexaion. Analyse dans une maquee prix-salaires Equipe AMADEUS Le modèle AMADEUS - Première parie - Présenaion générale J.L. BRILLET Le modèle AMADEUS - Deuxième parie - Propriéés varianielles D. GUELLEC e P. RALLE Endogenous growh and produc innovaion H. ROUSSE Le modèle AMADEUS - Troisième parie - Le commerce exérieur e l'environnemen inernaional H. ROUSSE Effes de demande e d'offre dans les résulas du commerce exérieur manufacuré de la France au cours des deux dernières décennies B. CREPON Innovaion, aille e concenraion : causaliés e dynamiques B. AMABLE e D. GUELLEC Un panorama des héories de la croissance endogène M. GLAUDE e M. MOUTARDIER Une évaluaion du coû direc de l'enfan de 979 à 989 P. RALLE e alii France - Allemagne : performances économiques comparées J.L. BRILLET Micro-DMS NON PARU A. MAGNIER Effes accéléraeur e muliplicaeur en France depuis 97 : quelques résulas empiriques B. CREPON e G. DUREAU Invesissemen en recherche-développemen : analyse de causaliés dans un modèle d'accéléraeur généralisé J.L. BRILLET, H. ERKEL-ROUSSE, J. TOUJAS- BERNATE "France-Allemagne Couplées" - Deux économies vues par une maquee macro-économérique W.J. ADAMS, B. CREPON, D. ENCAOUA Choix echnologiques e sraégies de dissuasion d'enrée J. OLIVEIRA-MARTINS, J. TOUJAS-BERNATE Macro-economic impor funcions wih imperfec compeiion - An applicaion o he E.C. Trade G 923 I. STAPIC Les échanges inernaionaux de services de la France dans le cadre des négociaions mulilaérales du GATT Juin 992 (ère version) Novembre 992 (version finale) G 924 P. SEVESTRE L'économérie sur données individuellesemporelles. Une noe inroducive G 925 H. ERKEL-ROUSSE Le commerce exérieur e l'environnemen inernaional dans le modèle AMADEUS (réesimaion 992) G 926 N. GREENAN e D. GUELLEC Coordinaion wihin he firm and endogenous growh G 927 A. MAGNIER e J. TOUJAS-BERNATE Technology and rade : empirical evidences for he major five indusrialized counries G 928 B. CREPON, E. DUGUET, D. ENCAOUA e P. MOHNEN Cooperaive, non cooperaive R & D and opimal paen life G 929 B. CREPON e E. DUGUET Research and developmen, compeiion and innovaion : an applicaion of pseudo maximum likelihood mehods o Poisson models wih heerogeneiy G 93 J. TOUJAS-BERNATE Commerce inernaional e concurrence imparfaie : développemens récens e implicaions pour la poliique commerciale G 932 Ch. CASES Durées de chômage e comporemens d'offre de ravail : une revue de la liéraure G 933 H. ERKEL-ROUSSE Union économique e monéaire : le déba économique G 934 N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC / G. BROUSSAUDIER - L. MIOTTI Innovaion organisaionnelle, dynamisme echnologique e performances des enreprises G 935 P. JAILLARD Le raié de Maasrich : présenaion juridique e hisorique G 936 J.L. BRILLET Micro-DMS : présenaion e propriéés G 937 J.L. BRILLET Micro-DMS - varianes : les ableaux G 938 S. JACOBZONE Les grands réseaux publics français dans une perspecive européenne G 939 L. BLOCH - B. CŒURE Profiabilié de l'invesissemen producif e ransmission des chocs financiers G 93 J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT Les héories sur la srucure opimal du capial : quelques poins de repère G 93 J. BOURDIEU - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT Les décisions de financemen des enreprises françaises : une évaluaion empirique des héories de la srucure opimale du capial G 932 L. BLOCH - B. CŒURÉ Q de Tobin marginal e ransmission des chocs financiers G 933 Equipes Amadeus (INSEE), Banque de France, Méric (DP) Présenaion des propriéés des principaux modèles macroéconomiques du Service Public G 934 B. CREPON - E. DUGUET Research & Developmen, compeiion and innovaion G 935 B. DORMONT Quelle es l'influence du coû du ravail sur l'emploi? G 936 D. BLANCHET - C. BROUSSE Deux éudes sur l'âge de la reraie G 937 D. BLANCHET Répariion du ravail dans une populaion héérogène : deux noes G 938 D. EYSSARTIER - N. PONTY AMADEUS - an annual macro-economic model for he medium and long erm G 939 G. CETTE - Ph. CUNÉO - D. EYSSARTIER - J. GAUTIÉ Les effes sur l'emploi d'un abaissemen du coû du ravail des jeunes G 94 D. BLANCHET Les srucures par âge imporen-elles? G 942 J. GAUTIÉ Le chômage des jeunes en France : problème de formaion ou phénomène de file d'aene? Quelques élémens du déba G 943 P. QUIRION Les déches en France : élémens saisiques e économiques G 944 D. LADIRAY - M. GRUN-REHOMME Lissage par moyennes mobiles - Le problème des exrémiés de série G 945 V. MAILLARD Théorie e praique de la correcion des effes de jours ouvrables G 946 F. ROSENWALD La décision d'invesir G 947 S. JACOBZONE Les appors de l'économie indusrielle pour définir la sraégie économique de l'hôpial public G 948 L. BLOCH, J. BOURDIEU, B. COLIN-SEDILLOT, G. LONGUEVILLE Du défau de paiemen au dépô de bilan : les banquiers face aux PME en difficulé G 949 D. EYSSARTIER, P. MAIRE Impacs macro-économiques de mesures d'aide au logemen - quelques élémens d'évaluaion G 94 F. ROSENWALD Suivi conjoncurel de l'invesissemen G 94 C. DEFEUILLEY - Ph. QUIRION Les déches d'emballages ménagers : une analyse économique des poliiques française e allemande G 942 J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. COLIN-SEDILLOT Invesissemen, inceriude e irréversibilié Quelques développemens récens de la héorie de l'invesissemen G 943 B. DORMONT - M. PAUCHET L'évaluaion de l'élasicié emploi-salaire dépendelle des srucures de qualificaion? G 944 I. KABLA Le Choix de breveer une invenion G 95 J. BOURDIEU - B. CŒURÉ - B. SEDILLOT Irreversible Invesmen and Uncerainy : When is here a Value of Waiing? G 952 L. BLOCH - B. CŒURÉ Imperfecions du marché du crédi, invesissemen des enreprises e cycle économique G 953 D. GOUX - E. MAURIN Les ransformaions de la demande de ravail par qualificaion en France Une éude sur la période G 954 N. GREENAN Technologie, changemen organisaionnel, qualificaions e emploi : une éude empirique sur l'indusrie manufacurière G 955 D. GOUX - E. MAURIN Persisance des hiérarchies secorielles de salaires: un réexamen sur données françaises G 955 D. GOUX - E. MAURIN Bis Persisence of iner-indusry wages differenials: a reexaminaion on mached worker-firm panel daa G 956 S. JACOBZONE Les liens enre RMI e chômage, une mise en perspecive NON PARU - aricle sori dans Economie e Prévision n 22 (996) - pages 95 à 3 G 957 G. CETTE - S. MAHFOUZ Le parage primaire du revenu Consa descripif sur longue période G 96 Banque de France - CEPREMAP - Direcion de la Prévision - Erasme - INSEE - OFCE Srucures e propriéés de cinq modèles macroéconomiques français G 962 Rappor d acivié de la DESE de l année 995 G 963 J. BOURDIEU - A. DRAZNIEKS L ocroi de crédi aux PME : une analyse à parir d informaions bancaires G 964 A. TOPIOL-BENSAÏD Les implanaions japonaises en France G 965 P. GENIER - S. JACOBZONE Comporemens de prévenion, consommaion d alcool e abagie : peu-on parler d une gesion globale du capial sané? Une modélisaion microéconomérique empirique G 966 C. DOZ - F. LENGLART Facor analysis and unobserved componen models: an applicaion o he sudy of French business surveys G 967 N. GREENAN - D. GUELLEC La héorie coopéraive de la firme