Understanding Change: Investigating Legitimacy, Beyond the Transition Paradigm

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1 Understanding Change: Investigating Legitimacy, Beyond the Transition Paradigm Seminar ISEG March , Lisbon

2 Introductory comments Me myself and I Scientific context of this presentation

3 For a Theory of Change in some Emerging Countries -A starting point: the transition paradigm -Comparative perspective -Methodology -Theoretical background

4 Plan I The Failure of the Transition Paradigm in retrospect II Beyond the Transition Paradigm

5 I The Failure of the Transition paradigm in retrospect How could we get it so wrong?

6 The transition paradigm; the second generation model The hybrid regimes (Levitsky and Way, 2002, 2012) Scope and relevance; two examples Mali and Russia Questions to be answered

7 II Beyond the Transition Paradigm: Investigating Legitimacy Some intuitions «The stability of any given democracy depends not only on economic development but also upon the effectiveness and the legitimacy of its political system» (Lipset 1959, as cited by Englebert, 1981, p. 64) Douglass North «The cost of maintenance of an existing order are inversely related to the perceived legitimacy of the existing system» North Douglass, 1981, p.53, cité par Englebert)

system» (Lipset 1959, as cited by Englebert, 1981, p.

8 II Beyond the Transition Paradigm: Investigating Legitimacy Legitimacy Dimensions horizontal / vertical (Englebert, 2000) And roots (3)

9 II Beyond the Transition Paradigm: Investigating Legitimacy 1) State and Business (horizontal) (Laruelle, 2012; Stewart and al., 2012 ) 2) State and Society (Vertical) (Hibou, 2011) 3) Ideology (Hibou, 2011, Dufy, forthcoming)

10 II Beyond the Transition Paradigm: Investigating Legitimacy 1) State and Business (horizontal) (Laruelle, 2012; Stewart and al., 2012 ) - Neopatrimonialism (Bach, Gazibo, 2012) - State capture (EBRD, Kaufmann, Jones, Hellman, 2000) - Corruption (Hibou, 2011, Ledeneva,1998) - Patronage (Laruelle, 2012) - Cronysm

, 2012 ) - Neopatrimonialism (Bach, Gazibo, 2012) - State capture (EBRD,

11 2) State and Society (Vertical) (Hibou, 2011) - Tunisia «politique du ventre» - China - Russia

12 3) Ideology (Hibou, 2011; Dufy) -The Beijing Consensus (Williamson, 2012) -The Multiple Modernities (Eisenstadt, 2000) -The Modernization debate in Russia and my field work

14 Conclusion An antiliberal approach? A relativist approach? The Aftermath of the «Global shift»

15 Bibliography Bach & Gazibo, eds., Neopatrimonialism in Africa and Beyond,, Oxford: Routledge, Carothers T., The End of The Transition Paradigm, Journal of Democracy, 2002 Dufy C. 2007, L Ethnographie économique, La Découverte, collection Repères, Paris. Dufy C., 2008, Le Troc dans le marché : pour une sociologie des transactions dans la Russie post-soviétique. L Harmattan, Paris, ) Dufy C., 2011, «Pratiques informelles dans le changement de système en Russie : entre criminalité et normalisation», Quatre paradoxes sur l économie informelle, dirigé par Florence Weber (CMH, CNRS), Paris, Editions MSH, et Karthala, coll. «Les terrains du siècle», Paris, p Eisenstadt, S. (2000) Multiple Modernities, Daedalus, 129, 1, pp Englebert P. «State Legitimacy and Developmental Capacity», pp , State Legitimacy and Development in Africa. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, Joel S. Hellman Geraint Jones, Daniel Kaufmann and Mark Schankerman, Measuring Governance, Corruption, and State Capture: How Firms and Bureaucrats Shape the Business Environment in Transition Economies: results of a firmlevel study across 20 transition economies, Washington DC, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, no. 2312, 2000; Joel Hellman, Daniel Kaufmann, "Confronting the Challenge of State Capture in Transition Economies", Finance and Development, 2001, vol. 38, n 3, p Hibou B., Anatomie politique de la domination, La Découverte, Paris, 2012 Laruelle M. ed., Discussing Neopatrimonialism and Patronal Presidentialism in the Central Asian Context, special issue on Demokratizatsiya, Autum 2012, Ledeneva A. Russia s Economy of Favors, Blat, and Informal Exchange; Cambridge University Press, Levitsky S. & Way L., Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War, Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, Céline Thiriot «Rôle de la société civile dans la transition et la consolidation démocratique en Afrique : éléments de réflexion à partir du cas du Mali», Revue internationale de politique comparée 2/2002 (Vol. 9), p /ripc Susan Stewart, Margarete Klein, Andrea Schmitz & Hans-Henning Schroöder, dirs., Presidents, Oligarchs and Bureaucrats; Forms of Rule in the Post Soviet Space, Farnham: Ashgate, Stiglitz, J. (2002) Globalization and its discontents, (New York, W. W. Norton). Williamson, J. (2012), Is the Beijing Consensus now dominant?, Asia Policy, 13, pp , accessed 26th of January

, 2008, Le Troc dans le marché : pour une sociologie des transactions dans la Russie post-soviétique. L Harmattan, Paris, http://www.editions-harmattan.fr/index.asp?

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