Final Project Report for 2010 START/ PACOM African Global Change Research Grants January 2011

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1 Final Project Report for 2010 START/ PACOM African Global Change Research Grants January 2011 Vulnerability assessment and risk level of ecosystem services for climate change impacts and adaptation in Moroccan oases Authors : M. Messouli, L. Bounoua, A. Babqiqi, N. Wahid, S. Rochdane, A. Ben Salem, L.B. Ghallabi and F.E. Hammadi i

2 INTERNATIONAL SECRETARIAT Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training Summary of Project Report for 2010 START/ PACOM African Global Change Research Grants Vulnerability assessment and risk level of ecosystem services for climate change impacts and adaptation in Moroccan oases Fabruary 2011 Principal Investigator: Pr Mohammed MESSOULI, CDRT, University Cadi Ayyad, Morocco Co-Investigators: Dr. Lahouari BOUNOUA, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Biospheric Sciences, USA, Dr Abdelaziz BABQIQI, University Cadi Ayyad; Morocco Dr Nadya WAHID: Université Laval Québec Saloua ROCHDANE University Cadi Ayyad; Morocco Abdelkrim BEN SALEM University Cadi Ayyad; Morocco L. Bahia GHALLABI University Cadi Ayyad; Morocco Fatima Ezzahra HAMMADI University Cadi Ayyad; Morocco ii

3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This project was supported by the Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START) The University of Marrakech provided additional generous logistical support and other staff RADOSE kindly provided essential administrative assistance and additional financial support during workshops 1 and 2.We wish to acknowledge the efforts of its staff members, who worked towards making these workshops a success. In addition to those mentioned above, the authors also offer sincere thanks to Dr A. Abbad (FSSM University of Marrakech) for sharing his valuable information on sol salinity. We would also like to thank Anne France Wittmann CBA UNEP Rabat and Ms. Julia Olivier Gtz, Rabat all, eminent trainers for making valuable contributions to workshops in Moroccan oases. iii

4 CONTENTS Abstract Project information... 1 Introduction... 2 Activities conducted... 4 Outcomes and products... 9 Conclusions Future Directions iv

5 Abstract Climate simulations from IPCC predict an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation over Morocco. The fragile agro-ecosystems within the country are the backbone of the economy and are affected by climate as well as socio-economic forces. Unless achievable adaptation methods are implemented within the near term, it is unlikely that livelihoods can be sustained in a changing climate. This study assesses the local and national scale climate and socio-economic change impact and their potential consequences over the next years in Morocco. In addition to climate change, the impact is assessed in terms of human-influenced driving forces such as population count and density, relative affluence and changes in technology. This project focuses on: 1) Derivation of climate change data and scenarios; Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). 2) Development of a GIS-platform to predict the potential production of agricultural goods, meat, eggs, milk and wood using georeferenced regional mapping of vulnerability and risk levels for selected ecosystem functions. 3) Generation of knowledge about interactions among ecosystem services. Interactions have been investigated by evaluating anthropogenic, meteorological, biological, and geological events as a means to provide mapping of ecosystem service trade-offs in the context of the changing climate in oases. 4) Synthesis and dissemination of information. Results will provide detailed adapted analysis into local to sub-regional climate change and develop important metrics required as input for mapping vulnerability and risk based on changes in surface energy, carbon and water balances in large watesheds in Morocco. An important outcome of the study will be a quantitative assessment of agricultural production and food security in the region. Several elements from these results are central to local planners, land managers, farmers and policy makers. Project Information Project title: Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Level of Ecosystem Services for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Moroccan Oases Principal Investigator: Pr Mohammed MESSOULI, CDRT - University Cadi Ayyad, Morocco Duration of the project: one year, from 15 January 2010 to 15 January Sub Award at the level of US $44,200. The total Grant awarded by the International START secretariat is US $44,200 1

6 Introduction Climate change presents a major challenge for sustainable management of key ecosystem goods and services (e.g. biodiversity, forestry, agricultural production, water resources- both quantity and quality). Despite increasing efforts to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, results from global circulation models show that major changes in the current climate cannot be avoided and hence sector-specific adaptation measures are needed. These adaptation measures have to be based on the understanding of (i) the likelihood of change, (ii) vulnerability of the specific sectors to the predicted change, and (iii) knowledge about the local-scale possibilities for mitigation or otherwise adaptation. There is thus the need for developing the methodology and tools for connecting the global and regional scale climate change to sub-regional and local scale changes where realistic and achievable mitigation or adaptation measures are planned and implemented. Authorities and stakeholders acting at these different scales need the necessary information at local scale, provided in a suitable format, for understanding and planning adaptation measures. Climate simulations from the IPCC project an increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over Morocco (IPCC, 2007); and unless near-term adapted and achievable measures are implemented at sub-regional and local levels, it is unlikely that livelihood can be sustained in a changing climate. The sites have a wealth of existing information, and are closely integrated into the localeconomy and trade. This provides the necessary link to the local scale where appropriate adaptation measures can be assessed and developed. The project provided both detailed descriptions about the methodology and tools for making climate impacts and adaptation assessments, as well as a suite of realistic adaptation measures for key ecosystem goods and services. This methodology and information can be used by stakeholders from local to sub-regional scales and can be extended to regional and country-level scale. The project will also contribute directly to the development of existing or planned national and international policies and provided inputs to facilitate the decision making process. Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of the Moroccan economy. The combined and interacting influences of climate variability and change directly affect Australian agriculture through rainfall and temperature conditions on plant and animal production, and indirectly through changes in soils, water, pests, diseases and biodiversity interactions. Climate variability and change are two inextricably linked drivers of climate risk that also contribute to economic risk in agriculture through the variability of commodity prices and input costs that determine Morocco Changes in the physical productivity of agricultural enterprises have significant economic and social consequences. Changes in the relative profitability of alternative farming activities lead to changes in land use, regional investment and infrastructure development, and ultimately the flow of investment between agriculture and other sectors. Changes in industry investment and infrastructure contribute to changes in employment, regional migration and demographic profiles. 2

7 At each step in this complex hierarchy of interacting impacts, adaptation routinely takes place to reduce the exposure of agricultural activities to climate risk, and their sensitivity to its impacts. This report is the first to meet the need for both immediate and strategic policy-relevant insights into the vulnerability of Moroccan agriculture to climate variability and change. Its objectives are to review: 1. Alternative methods for conceptualising and measuring vulnerability by documenting the most operational and accessible methods and models that are publicly available. 2. and collate existing research into the likely impacts of climate change on the physical productivity of Moroccan agriculture Specific objectives Analyze ecosystem vulnerabilities using in-situ and remote sensing observations, climate data and socio-economic attributes to develop results of clear value for integrated assessments of global change impacts in ecosystem production in Morocco. 1. Derive realistic site-to-region-specific climate change outcome scenarios based on projections from the IPCC Fourth Assessment (IPCC, 2007). These climate changes outcome scenarios will include guidelines derived from current understanding of uncertainties in the climate projections and will be adapted to observed historical regional climate indicators by using the Statistical Downscaling Model. This will allow vulnerability assessments based on probability and guidelines following international standards; 2. Derive national-specific vulnerability assessment with risk level maps to climate change for selected major ecosystem services such as land use and cover change, water resources and surface fresh water availability, agricultural production, forest cover and carbon sequestration, nature-based tourism; 3. Provide a comprehensive adapted vulnerability analysis that contributes directly to the ongoing development of national policies for climate change mitigation and or adaptation. This task will include contribution from the Global Environmental Change (GEC) in Africa in the context of the Joint Projects of Earth System Sciences Partnership (ESSP); 4. Provide a framework for anticipating and planning trade-off (win win, lose lose, and win lose) outcomes as a result of management of ecosystem services; 5. Disseminate, through a web-based archive, results to local administrations and stakeholders (natural parks, communities, producers, National Communication on Climate Change) and national and international bodies and networks. Deliverables: 1. Construction of a comprehensive database including climate, soil, vegetation and socioeconomic attributes in a GIS-platform to serve for vulnerability and risk assessment studies associated with potential CC at local and sub-regional scales over a large and fragile 3

8 watershed in southern Morocco. Derivation of CC scenarios for impacts vulnerability and risk assessments; 2. Development and mapping of vulnerability and risk levels for selected key ecosystem good and services at local and sub-regional scales; and analysis and exploration of locally-adapted realistic and achievable mitigation and or adaptation mechanisms for the study region.. Derivation of critical thresholds for environmental change, showing sensitivities of ecosystems to projected CC and possibilities for mitigation and/or adaptation. 3. Inventories of appropriate mitigation and/or adaptation measures defined with local and regional stakeholders; 4. Dissemination material; 5. National stakeholder workshop focusing on assistance in the development of national adaptation policies and strategies through the Steering Group of the national adaptation program and established national adaptation networks. This workshop will be also a contribution to the production of the National Communication on Climate Change managed by the Department of the Environment of Morocco. Activities Conducted Action 1: F ield trip on Moroccan oases The preliminary steps to begin our research started on January, A nine day field trip was organized in the Ziz Valley (MAB Biosphere reserve), from 18 to 26 January Participants: Pr. Messouli, M Yacoubi-Khebiza, A. Ben Salem, LB.Ghallabi, S. Rochdane, FZ Hammadi, PJ Ahidjo (ACCFP fellow) The objective of the field trip on Moroccan oases was: a) Meetings and discussing with local and regional end-users (regional environment centre, local and regional farmers associations, and local forestry associations). b) Gather information on local and regional environmental issues related to climate change and its perceived impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. c) Involvement of stakeholders in the provision of data and information with which to quantify ecosystem services and sometimes get them involved in expert judgments on valuating ecosystem services. Issues on governance were also addressed. d) Start building community understanding of what ecosystem services are and why they are so valuable, and how they are vulnerable to climate and socio-economic changes. e) Draw an inventory of examples of adaptation in practice in different sectors in Moroccan Oases, From January 18-26, 2010 we met with NGOs, interdisciplinary team of scientists and collaborators representing the MAB Biosphere reserve sites, to develop a clear and concise strategic plan for integrating ecosystem service research within the biosphere reserve in 4

9 collaboration the RADOSE 1 network. We designed the plan to (a) foster and promote the use of network-level synthesis science in developing greater understanding of the valuation and management of ecosystem services, and (b) explore how those services are currently being delivered by a range of ecological systems represented across the network. Our goal was to focus attention on the topic of ecosystem services and begin the process of laying out a common, integrative framework for ecosystem service research that could generate research proposals as well as enthusiasm and excitement within the RADOSE community of NGOs. For more details see appendix1 Action 2: GIS training workshop In recognition of the importance of Geographic Information System (GIS) to implement our project, we organized a training workshop to update students on the potential applications of this powerful tool. The training workshop was held at the Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, from 11th to 14th of February The resource persons for the training were from the staff of the University of Marrakesh. Attendance Participants to the training workshops included students supported through the START-grant and the ACCFP project. During the four days training workshop, participants were taken through concepts and applications of Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing using the ARCGIS software version 9.2 applied on the NASA satellite data and local spatially explicit demographic data over Morocco. Action 3: M r. Babqiqi visits Goddard Space Flight Center in G reenbelt, M D USA A collaborator and student of UCAM, A. Babqiqi visited NASA, USA to work with Dr. Bounoua on developing the first methodologies of the project, assessing and ordering satellite data and refining statistical and numerical methodologies to be delivered by NASA and used in the project. Upon his arrival at Goddard Space Flight Center, Mr. Babqiqi was offered a tour to the center and introduced to some scientists of the Biospheric Sciences Branch code He was assigned an office and was able to use his personal computer to connect the GSFC facilities via the guest network. Mr. Babqiqi met several times with Dr. 1 RADOSE from French Réseau des Associations du Développement des Oasis du Sue Est ; This network of Associations is composed of 46 NGOs acting within the MAB Biosphere Reserve of Moroccan oases 5

10 Bounoua to discuss several issues related to the START-project. First Dr. Bounoua explained the different components and milestones of the projects which include four steps: 1- The Climate scenarios and the climate database This part of the project consists of choosing the appropriate IPCC scenarios for the region of interest and assimilates the relevant climate forcings from large scale models. Mr. Babqiqi suggested to use the projected climate data from the Hadley Center model HadCM3 for which he has some experience. The large scale data will concern the horizons 2015, 2020 and 2025 and include the mean, minimum and maximum temperatures as well as precipitation, humidity and wind variables. Other information will include periods of drought and cold as well as extreme precipitation and droughts. Dr. Bounoua suggested that this dataset will be completed with satellite observation of precipitation, land cover classification (land Use), vegetation density, vegetation phenology and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). These datasets are not at the same horizontal resolution and it is imperative that they be resampled to the same grid. Dr. Bounoua and Mr. Babqiqi have designed a methodology on how to resample the data to the same grid over the study area. It has been decided that Mr. Babqiqi and a local student (Fatima Ezzahra Hammadi) will work on this section under the supervision of Dr. Bounoua. 2- Consumption data and Model Dr. Bounoua and Mr. Babqiqi have also gone over a list of variables required for the consumption model, which will constitute the second component of the project. Several consumption goods are obtained from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Administration (U.N FAO) and reported at a country level. A methodology defined at GSFC by Dr. Bounoua and colleagues has been presented and explained to Mr. Babqiqi. These consumption data will first be converted to appropriate units and expressed as domestic supply. They will then be run through an appropriation model which will account for all steps until the determination of the amount of elementary carbon at the harvest site. This constitutes the Demand component of the model. The Supply component will be derived from the MODIS satellite products (Gross Primary Productivity - GPP). The difference or the ratio between the supply and demand will allow mapping of vulnerability. Other data required for this model include, among others, soil properties, population density and counts which will be obtained from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) USA. It has been suggested that a student Saloua Rochdane and Dr. Wahid will be supervised by Dr. Bounoua and Prof. Messouli to conduct this task. 3- Vegetation Stress Indicators The issue of vegetation stress determination and mapping over the study domain was also discussed at length with Mr. Babqiqi. This task will include a student, Abdelkrim Ben Salem working with Dr. Wahid under the supervision of Dr. Bounoua. Data required for this action were listed as Leaf area index from MODIS-instrument, trees morphological and physiological parameters (From Dr. Wahid previous work and from Dr. Bounoua's Biospheric model-sib2). 6

11 The satellite derived vegetation maps will be improved/adapted to local vegetation where possible. The outcome from this action is to develop maps of tress indicators that would vary with temperatures, precipitation and may be nutrients (if data is available). 4- Synthesis of these datasets into a Geographic Information System-GIS. A group of students under the supervision of Prof. Messouli and Dr. Bounoua will implement this GIS-databank in a format appropriate for ease of access and fast computation. Dr. Bounoua and Mr. Babqiqi have also reviewed and agreed to the overall activities of the project and have summarized them to four actions: 1- Derivation and assimilation of climate, consumption and vegetation data 2- Development of GIS-databank for the identification and management of associated ecosystems. 3- Interaction among ecosystem Services 4- Synthesis and Dissemination. Mr. Babqiqi has also presented to Dr. Bounoua an overview of his thesis entitled, Impact and Adaptation in the Marrakech region of Tensift El Haouz". Dr. Bounoua and Mr. Babqiqi have also drawn the outline of a paper that could be prepared at the issue of the project. Mr. Abedelaziz Babqiqi and Mr. Skip Kauffman, Program Associate at the International START Secretariat Dr. Lahouri Bounoua and Mr. Abedelaziz Babqiqi outside of the US Capitol in Washington, DC USA Mr. Abedelaziz Babqiqi is from the University of Caddy Ayad, in Marakesh, Morocco Action 4: Workshop 1 A preliminary guidebook was prepared and then presented during a workshop held in the Kenzi Errissani Hotel (Errachidia) between the L Trousse à Outils de Gestion des Services Écosystémiques (Launch of a Toolkit for Managing Ecosystem Services). The workshop was supported by the RADOSE (Réseau des Associations du Développement des Oasis du Sud Est). Vulnerability assessment and risk level of ecosystem services for climate change impacts and adaptation in Moroccan oases at the 7

12 opening ceremony. The opening session was attended by 58 participants from different administrative units, civil society and NGOs. Target groups and final beneficiaries of this workshop include: 25 NGOs, in addition to representatives of Japan International Corporation Agency (JICA), Water and Forestry, Program Tafilalt Oasis (POT), Delegation of Health, The Agency of Social Development (ADS), the German group GTZ. Four working groups were formed. The groups worked on grids to report the actual status of biodiversity and ecosystem services, climate change and desertification in the area A new steering group was established from these four groups. The steering group would be in charge of collecting data and sharing information on the respective areas, in cooperation with RADOSE. It was agreed that the next activity will be a workshop in Errachidia on May to validate the guidebook for local decision makers. The meeting will provide a compendium on adaptation containing important documents relating to project and funding opportunities and how to initiate and sustain adaptation at the local-micro level. For more details see appendix 2 Action 5: Dr Bounoua visit to the University of Marrakech 3-14 May 2010 As a mutual consent it was agreed that a visit of Dr. Bounoua to the UCAM would benefit all students and would be much more economical than sending students to NASA. As such the PI in consultation with the University of Marrakesh decided to invite Dr. Bounoua and provide in-kind travel, lodging and meals. Dr Bounoua to the University of Marrakech helped the team members (especially students) develop a sense around the methodologies and data to be used in the project. Dr. Bounoua delivered formal lectures in the mornings and directed laboratory work to help implement the technical aspects of the project. These educational activities provided students with an advanced knowledge and understanding of core aspects of climate and climate change, socio-economic drivers and their impact on societies and earth system resources and provided a clear understanding of the role of satellite data in the science of climate and climate change. Among other things, the lectures helped students i) to think pragmatically about the climate change, ii) to develop self confidence and proficiency in addressing climate change issues; iii) to develop their capacity to sustain rational arguments in solving problems in various professional contexts. Upon his arrival at Cadi Ayyad University Dr Bounoua was introduced to the Dean of the Faculty of Sciences and to the Vice-President of the university. 8

13 Action 6: Workshop 2 Photography taken during one of the working session. From left to right, A. Babqiqi, S. Rochdane, L. Bounoua, N. Wahid, A. Ben Salem, F.E. Hammadi. The second workshop was held in Errachidia, the of May, Its objective focused on the formulation of micro-projects in the Adaptation to Climate Change, desertification and biodiversity using GEF-. The workshop was organized to address six major steps in the emerging global debate over micro-projects formulation and was mostly aimed at governance. The details of the different steps could be found in the appendix 3. Action 7: Teleconferences All along the project and still ongoing, the group, as a whole, was having regular teleconferences using the SKYPE system every other Saturday. This means has ensured effective communication and collaboration and has help truly maximize productivity within the project Outcomes and Products Outcome 1: The database The largest outcome of this project is the building of the GIS-database. As of today the biggest achievement by the group was the construction of the extensive and comprehensive database that will serve for the different actions. As referred to in Action 3, the database consists of several sections including climate data, Vegetation data, Land cover map, vegetation phenology, soil characteristics, consumption data, Gross primary Productivity (GPP), Population data and stress indicators. All datasets are formatted for consistency and included in the same GIS-formatted database. It will be lengthy to list all the different dataset in this short report; however a complete listing will be included as an appendix in the final report. Here we show the status of completeness of each of the of data category keeping in mind that each category may have 9

14 several fields. For example, the climate data consists of temperatures minimum, maximum, mean, precipitation, wind field and specific humidity. It is to be noted that all dataset are complete except the future climate which is complete at about 75%. We still have about 1 month of work to complete the data set and relevant analysis. Table 1: The different datasets included in the GIS-database. Climate data Present Climate Future climate Topography Vegetation data Land Cover Map Vegetation density (NDVI) Gross Primary Production Vegetation root zone depth Consumption data Vegetable food Eggs Milk Total meat Round Wood Coniferous Round Wood Non Coniferous Sawn Wood Coniferous Sawn Wood Non Coniferous Wood Panel Paper Fiber from Wood Fiber from vegetable Population Population count Population Density Rural/Urban population Stress Indicator High Temperature stress Low Temperature Stress Water Stress Salinity Stress Lead/coordinator members Bounoua/ Babqiqi/ Ben Salem Bounoua/ Babqiqi/ Ben Salem Bounoua/ Ben Salem Bounoua/ Ben Salem/Fatima E. Hammadi Bounoua/ Ben Salem/Wahid/Messouli Bounoua/ Fatima E. Hammadi Bounoua/ Fatima E. Hammadi Bounoua/ Wahid Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Bounoua/ Rochdane Messouli/L. B. Ghallabi/Ben Salem Messouli/L. B. Ghallabi/Ben Salem Messouli/L. B. Ghallabi/Ben Salem Messouli/ Rochdane/ L. B. Ghallabi/ Bounoua/Wahid/Messouli Bounoua/Wahid/Messouli Bounoua/Wahid/Messouli Bounoua/Wahid/Messouli Bounoua/Wahid/Messouli Outcome 2: Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in Morocco: Approaches for vegetation classification and Calculate stress function method Materiel and methods Domain of study The study is carried out over domain of Morocco region. This country is divided into three topographical regions: i) an open area in the northwest which is enclosed by Rif mountains. ii) the mountains and plateaux in the eastern and southern areas which include the Atlas Mountains. iii) The coastal plains of the west which include the fertile plains characteristic to agricultural zone. These distributed topographical units are largely a function of climatic and edaphic variables and disturbance regimes. It can exhibit a various local micro-climates (Driouech et al, 2009) and consequently a different vegetal covert (Benabid, 1982). To investigate how climate change may impact on major native vegetal types in over domain of Morocco, we used a regular 10

15 equal angle grid of 0.05 degree spatial resolution (about 5 km x 5 km). Climate change scenarios of different warming intensities for four future time periods: 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025, were established to investigate physiological response of native Morocco biomes to environment stresses (thermal and water stress). Approaches for vegetation classification A biome is a large geographical region having a defining climate to which plants show similar physiological adaptations (Campbell, 1996). Biomes are coarse ecological units based on the phenology, life form, and physiognomy of the dominant vegetation community. Biome classification is considered as a tool for conservation planning and to assess the sensitivity of vegetation system distribution to climate change. Furthermore, remotely-sensed imagery played a pivotal role in generating information about vegetation cover types and land use changes (Roy, 1993). Among global initiatives, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) AVHRR data of 1 km/5 km resolution have been used extensively to produce continental scale vegetation maps (Hansen et al., 2000). Similarly, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-MODIS (Zhang et al., 2003) have been used to generate vegetation cover databases on global level. Historical vegetation data is acquired from the Long Term Data Record (LTDR) project developed by NASA to provide a seamless continuity between the MODIS instrument and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) from 1982 to present. In this study, we also used satellite data from the MODIS at 0.05 degree (MOD1C12) on the NASA Terra and Aqua platforms to describe major vegetal types (biomes) and land surface temperature on Morocco region. The Land Cover Type Yearly Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) includs three classification schemes (IGBP, MODIS derived LAI/fPAR and University of Maryland schemes), which Terra MODIS data. According to University of Maryland scheme (UMD), we used land cover type 2 data (MOD12C1-Type 2) to identify major biomes in Morocco region. This secondary land cover scheme identifies 13 land cover classes (Table I), which includes 10 natural vegetation classes, 1 mosaicked land class, and 2 non-vegetated land classes. In the other hand, to measured potential tolerance of biomes classes characterized Moroccan region, we used Simple Biospher model (SiB2) (Sellers et al., 1996a). It contains a development land surface parameterization (LSPs) and general circulation model of the atmosphere (GCMs). Submodels of LSPs allow us to calculate biophysical parameters from knowledge of vegetation types and soil quantities that could be directly obtained from specific vegetal classes. To obtain dataset of these parameters characterized vegetal cover of this area study, the land cover classes as defined by UMD were lumped into 11 classes by SiB1 (Table 2) (Sellers et al., 1996b). For thus, we classified vegetal types according to biomes identified by UMD but with SiB1 code (Figure 1). SiB2 recognizes 11 vegetation classes using only one vegetation layer both of types 6, 7 and 8, assigned C 4 grassland physiological and optical properties (Table 2). To assess the classification accuracy and validate it, we referenced on past scientific literature of vegetal ecosystem distribution (Destremau, 1974, Benabid, 1982, 2000;; Zine Elabidine, 1988, et al., 1994). The species that were selected to define the biomes were species with high abundance and high constancy in the area (Table 3). These species were used as indicator species for each biome class in the area and were used to test the effect of changing climate in this study. For each plant species we defined its mean, maximal and minimal 11

16 temperature growth conditions from the available information relative to the preceding references. Table 2: -UMD (type 2) and SiB1. University of Maryland biomes (UMD) Code UMD Code SiB1 Code SiB2 Water Evergreen needleleaf forest Evergreen broadleaf forest Deciduous broadleaf forest Mixed forests Closed shrublands Open shrublands Woody savannas Savannas Grasslands Croplands Urban and built-up Barren or sparely vegetated University of Maryland Classification 0 Water 1 Evergeen needleleaf forest (4 SiB1) 2 Evergreen broadleleaf forest (1 SiB1) Kilometers 5 Mixed forests 6 Closed shrublands 7 Open shrublands 8 Woody sannas 9 Savannas 10 Grasslands 12 Croplands 13 Urban and built-up 16 Barren or spasely vegetated Figure 1: Biomes map of Morocco 12

17 Table 3: Indicator species for each biome class in Moroccan regions Biomes Class SiB1 SiB2 Under-Class Species abundance broadleaf-evergreen trees 1 1 Chêne vert Eucalyptus Chêne zen Broadleaf-deciduous trees 2 2 Chêne tauzin Platane Broadleaf and needleleaf trees 3 3 Chêne vert en mélange Chêne liège en mélange Autres feuillus en mélange Genévrier en mélange Needleleaf-evergreen trees 4 4 Pin maritime pin d'alep Cèdre Cyprès Short vegetation/ C4 groundcovert 6 6 Atriplex Cactus Grassland 7 6 Grassland Shrubs + Groundcover 8 6 Alfa Broadleaf shrubs with bare soil 9 7 Acacia Agriculture/ C3 grassland 12 9 Agroforestier Olivier Palmier Arganier Céréales Blé (tendre, dure, orge) Maïs Maraichères Pomme de terre Betterave Carotte Oignon Chou Calculate stress function method Changes in tolerance of biomes class and there species specific to environmental stresses have been investigated by SiB2 model coupled to the indicators climate combination (temperature and precipitation). SiB2 incorporates a coupled photosynthesis conductance parameterization to describe the simultaneous transfers of CO2 and water vapor in and out of the leaf, respectively as described by Sellers et al. (1996a, b). The process of models incorporated in SiB2 with combination to GCM (General Climate Model) calculate the global scale uptake of carbon by plants cover in photosynthesis, that is gross primary production (GPP). The GPP is an annual measure of the biological production activity or growth of land-based vegetation. Gross Primary Production is the foundation for calculations of the Net Primary Production (NPP) product. These products are computed with daily MODIS land cover at 1 km for the global vegetated land surface. In our study, we used NPP data set of 2006 from MODIS 17 at 1 km for every 8 days, and summed to 0.05 degree MODIS NPP at the end of the year. NPP influences by climatic factors in particular temperature and precipitation. To quantifier different warming intensities of thermal and drought stress, on NPP since 2006 to 2010 and for 13

18 three future time periods; 2015, 2020 and 2025, we used equations of function stress ( ) given in SiB2 (Sellers et al., 1996a). Equations include in SiB2 and describe the effects of temperature and soil moisture stress, were follows: 1- Thermal function stress: There are two thermal stress types as function of temperature minimal or maximal: 1-a Maximal thermal stress Tmax ): where: T: High temperature measured in k of each time period of 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025, Tc: Critical high temperature characterized each biome or species in K, 1-b Minimal thermal stress Tmin ): Where: T (k): low temperature measured of each time period of 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025, Tc (k): critical low temperature characterized each biome or species, 2- Water stress function w ): This function is applied to calculate soil moisture stress: Where: c (m): one-half inhibition water potential, r (m): root soil zone moisture potential, which is depending to soil types. In fact, soil physical properties are assigned to each soil type, and we used Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) global field soil-type map to extract data set of our domain study (Figure r is calculated by the follow equation: s : soil moisture potential at saturation, w 2 : root zone soil retention water, B: empirical parameter (soil wetness exponent). Tmax, Tmin w ), which equal:. NPP for 2010 (NPP 2010 ) is calculated with the follow equation:. The same equation is used to assess NPP for the other future time periods (2015, 2020 and 2025). 14

19 15

20 Outcome 3: Example of other products from the data base. Figure 2: Interpolated temperature for January 2006 using station data and the spline interpolation technique Kilometers Legend TmoyA2P1 <VALUE> (a1) Mean temperature for 2020HR (a2) Mean temperature for 2050HR (a3) Mean temperature for 2080HR (b1) Maximum Temperature for 2020HR (b2) Maximum Temperature for 2050HR (b3) Maximum Temperature for 2080HR 16

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