China s economy: from rapid growth to balanced development? Montreal, July 8-9,

Transcription

1 China s economy: from rapid growth to balanced development? Montreal, July 8-9,

2 L économie chinoise: d une croissance rapide à un développement équilibré? Montreal, July 8-9,

3 China s economy: from rapid growth to a more balance development? 1- China : a global economic power 2-Strengths 3- and weaknesses 3-Prospects: will China succeed in rebalancing its economy? 3

4 China: a global economic power Rapid economic growth: 9% a year since 1980 (GDP increased tenfold) China has become a big economic power Long before getting rich (average income per capita still low) Strong presence in international trade 4

5 China among the largest economies in the world: Share in world GDP in 1993 and 2006 ( %) United States 26.7 United States 27.5 Japan 17.3 Japan 9.0 Germany 8.1 Germany 6.0 France 5.2 China 5.4 Italy 4.1 United Kingdom 4.9 United Kingdom 3.9 France 4.7 Canada 2.3 Italy 3.8 Spain 2.1 Canada 2.6 China 1.8 Spain 2.5 Brazil 1.8 Russia 2.0 Russia 1.8 Brazil 2.0 Mexico 1.6 India 1.9 South Korea 1.5 South Korea 1.8 Netherlands 1.3 Mexico 1.7 Australia 1.3 Australia 1.6 India 1.1 Netherlands 1.4 Switzerland 1.0 Argentina 1.0 Sélection des pays qui représentent plus de 1% du Pib mondial Sources : Maddison (2001) ; CEPII, base de données CHELEM. 5

6 Un pays encore pauvre: le revenu par habitant est 1/10 ème de celui des Etats-Unis (2005) Revenu par habitant (dollars) Parité de pouvoir d'achat Taux de change Poids dans le PIB mondial (taux de change) WORLD United States ,9 Canada ,6 United Kingdom ,1 Germany ,3 Japan ,3 France ,8 Italy ,0 Spain ,5 Korea, Rep ,8 Russia ,7 Mexico ,7 Brazil ,0 China ,1 India ,8 Source: Banque mondiale et ONU: ICP

7 Still poor: China s income per capita is one tenth of the US (2005) Income per capita in US dollars Share in world GDP, in % Purchasing power parity Exchange rate WORLD United States ,9 Canada ,6 United Kingdom ,1 Germany ,3 Japan ,3 France ,8 Italy ,0 Spain ,5 Korea, Rep ,8 Russia ,7 Mexico ,7 Brazil ,0 China ,1 India ,8 Source: Banque mondiale et ONU: ICP

8 Catching-up but still far behind: China s average income per capita in 2005= France in 1950, US in 1913, Japan in PIB par tête en dollars PPA Etats-Unis Allemagne France Japon GB 5000 Chine Sources : Maddison (2001) ; CEPII, base de données CHELEM. 8

9 China: the second world exporter of manufactured products since 2005 In % of world exports/imports EXPORTS IMPORTS Germany 11.8 Germany 11.6 United States 15.0 United States 16.2 United States 11.8 China 10.3 Germany 9.6 Germany 7.8 Japan 10.9 United States 9.1 France 5.9 China 5.3 France 6.3 Japan 7.5 Japan 5.5 France 5.2 Italy 5.4 France 5.2 United Kingdom 5.5 United Kingdom 5.0 United Kingdom 5.2 Italy 4.5 Italy 3.9 Japan 4.2 Netherlands 3.6 United Kingdom 4.1 Canada 3.6 Italy 3.7 Canada 3.6 South Korea 3.6 Netherlands 3.6 Canada 3.5 China 3.5 Netherlands 3.5 China 2.8 Netherlands 3.2 South Korea 3.0 Canada 3.2 South Korea 2.3 Spain 3.0 Spain 2.0 Spain 2.2 Spain 2.3 South Korea 2.2 Mexico 1.6 Mexico 2.2 Mexico 1.3 Mexico 2.0 Russia 0.9 Brazil 1.1 Australia 1.3 Russia 1.4 Brazil 0.8 Russia 0.9 Russia 1.1 Australia 1.3 Australia 0.6 India 0.8 Brazil 1.0 India 0.8 India 0.5 Australia 0.5 India 0.5 Brazil 0.8 Notes: Only the countries with a GDP representing more than 1% of World's GDP (measured by current US$) in 2006 are shown. Manufacturing products include food industries. The five big emerging countries are underlined. Source: CEPII, CHELEM-INT, July

10 China: first trading power in Asia (US$ millions), Exportations Importations Exportations Chine et ses provinces Importations Chine et ses provinces Sources : CEPII, base de données CHELEM ; statistiques des douanes chinoises. 10

11 Strengths of China s economy Hudge labour force (low wages) Very competitive manufacturing industry Strong integration into the world economy: an active player in globalisation 11

12 Number of workers in China, in other large emerging economies and in OECD countries (2005) (millions) sectors PrimarySecondaryTertiary All China India Russia Brazil Mexico OECD Source :ILO 12

13 China s trade surplus: electronic goods have overtaken textile (US$bn) Tous produits Produits primaires Matières premières s Combustibles Produits manufacturés Electronique & informatique Textiles et vêtements Acier Produits chimiques Appareil électriques Monde * Pour 2006, de janvier à novembre. Source : Statistiques des douanes chinoises. 13

14 China s largest market shares In % of world exports Textile Electrique Electronique Tous produits manufacturés

15 Globalisation: the role of foreign affiliates in China s industry and foreign trade (entre parenthèses : part des filiales entièrement étrangères) (2005) 2005 Production industrielle 32% (14%) Production manufacturière 35% - Industrie électronique 84% - Habillement 46% Exportations 58% (39%) Importations 60% (41%) Source: China Statistical Yearbook,

16 China s trade surplus stems from international assembly operations. Solde commercial (milliards US$) Assemblage & sous-traitance Autres Sources : Statistiques des douanes chinoises ; calculs du CEPII. 16

17 China is the leading exporter of HT products in Etats-Unis Chine Allemagne Japon Singapour Hong Kong Corée du Sud 0 Source: World Development Indicator,

18 Déséquilibres des échanges de la Chine : excédents sur l Amérique et l Europe, déficit sur l Asie * Monde * Pour 2006, de janvier à novembre. Source : Statistiques des douanes chinoises. 18

19 Weaknesses of China s economy (1) Costs of industry-led growth: Pollution: China has overtaken the US for greenhouse gaz emissions Increase in consumption of energy and raw materials, China s imports have contributed to raise world prices Terms of trade have deteriorated 19

20 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 Chine: le revers des succès : une détérioration des termes de l échange Prix des exportations prix des importations Termes de l'échange Source : CEPII, base de données BACI. 20

21 China s terms of trade are deteriorating : 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 Exports UV Imports UV Termes of trade Rise in import prices (intermediate goods, raw materials, energy) faster than in export prices Source : CEPII, base de données BACI. 21

22 -Weaknesses of China s economy (2) Inequality: Gap between rural and urban income has widened Gap between coastal and inland provinces Social inequality: unskilled /skilled labour Widening gap between rich and poor Domestic consumption: the weak link of China s growth Dependence on world markets 22

23 Urban areas: widening gap between rich and poor households. Niveau de revenu par rapport à la moyenne dans les villes (moyenne = 1) 3,0 Les 10% des ménages les plus pauvres 2,8 2,5 Les 10% des ménages les plus riches 2,0 1,9 1,5 1, ,5 0,0 0,5 0,3 Sources : China Statistical Yearbook, 2006 ; calculs CEPII. 23

24 Une croissance tirée par l investissement et l exportation: Composantes de la croissance du PIB en points de % 15,0 13,0 11,0 exportations nettes 9,0 7,0 Investissement 5,0 3,0 Consommation 1,0-1, Sources : China Statistical Yearbook, 2007 ; calculs CEPII. 24

25 Household consumption: the weak link of China s growth. Since 2001, growth has been driven by investment and 15,0 13,0 exports (Components of GDP growth, percentage points) 11,0 exportations nettes 9,0 7,0 Investissement 5,0 3,0 Consommation 1,0-1, Sources : China Statistical Yearbook, 2007 ; calculs CEPII. 25

26 L'intégration de la Chine et de l'inde dans Household consumption in GDP: China lags behind other Asian economies Final consumption of households in Asian economies 2005 (in % of the country GDP) Domestic household consumption: the weak link of China s growth Pakistan Cambodia Bangladesh Sri Lanka Philippines Indonesia India Thailand Taiwan Viet Nam All Asian countries Hong Kong Malaysia China Singapore Brunei Darussalam Source: ADB, 2007.

27 35 Une ouverture croissante aux échanges internationaux de biens et services Poids en % du PIB des échanges extérieurs (moyenne des export et import) 33 biens & services, total Produits manufacturés services Primaires

28 35 China economy has opened up and become dependent on world markets in % of GDP (X+M/2) 33 biens & services, total Produits manufacturés services Primaires

29 Prospects China s economy will continue to grow faster than average, A new balance of power in world economy China s strategy: the11th five year-plan ( ) sets new priorities: -Services (vs. industry) -Domestic consumption (vs. exports -Quality upgrading -Protection of environment Will take time to be implemented - 29

30 Projections CEPII : PIB + taux de change réel milliards de US$ La Chine devient la 2ème économie mondiale vers États-Unis: Japon : Allemagne :1 870 Royaume-Uni : France : Chine : Italie : taux de change variable États-Unis : Chine : Japon : Allemagne : Royaume-Uni : Inde : France : Source : S. Poncet (2006). 30

31 A long term scenario: by 2030, China is the second largest economy US$bn US: Japan : Germany:1 870 UK: France : China : Italy : US: China : Japan : Germany: UK: Indi : France : Source : S. Poncet (2006). 31

32 La part croissante de la Chine dans la demande mondiale d énergie primaire (en millions de tonnes équivalent pétrole) 17% 2030 Source : Agence Internationale de l Energie,

33 China will increase its share in world demand of energy (million TEP) 17% 2030 Source : Agence Internationale de l Energie,

34 La Chine à la veille d'un tournant démographique : la population en âge de travailler vieillit, et elle diminue à partir de ans ans ans Source : ONU, Projections démographiques. 34

35 China is going to lose in comparative advantages in labour intensive production: working age population is getting older and will diminish after ans ans ans Source : ONU, Projections démographiques. 35

36 Prospects A new balance of power in the world economy in 2030 or 2050: the biggest economic powers will not be the richest Changes in the patterns of world supply and demand How the developed countries will adapt to this new context? 36