Asset Management : La vraie/fausseliquidité des fonds. Jean-François Bay CEO, Morningstar France UeAM 2015

Transcription

3 Asset Management : Introduction A lot of Preconceptions about the Industry in 2015 Webelieve the sectoris in crisis in Europe A High growthsectorglobally The middle class in emerging markets A strongrecovery in Europe ml A parallel with the Car Industry +6% p.a. Global New Registrations AIS ml A barbellization of the Industry How important Brand is in the sector Low Cost/Premium The importance of Research A New Way of Consuming/Investing Power to Consumer (Social Networks ) A ResponsibleConsumer/Investor Performance but also Security, Transparency BUY RENT SHARE Morningstar. All Rights Reserved.

4 Asset Management : Introduction Une industrie qui se porte bien au niveau mondial Despite the substantial decrease of the Fees in 10 years, the Revenue increases % Change Estimated Fund Industry Revenue AUM Estimated Aggregate Industry Fee Revenue Asset-Weighted Expense Ratio % % Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 4

5 Asset Management : Introduction Une industrie qui se porte bien au niveau mondial Worldwide Funds : A record year in terms of Assets on the last years Global Fund Assets by Broad Category Group, USD Bil, End of Q Equity Fixed Income Allocation Alternative Commodities Tax Preferred Other Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 5

6 Asset Management : Introduction Une industrie qui se porte bien en Europe +255 Bil S Bil / Month on average in 2015 (+23 Bil / Month on the last 5 years) EUR Billions, End of S Others Money Market Fixed Income Equity Allocation Ave. YTD 2015 Ave Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 6

7 Asset Management : Introduction Un sentiment partagé en 2015 European investors are cautious A Good Year for Allocation Funds (+101 Bil) & Alternative Funds (+44 Bil) Inflows by Semester in Bil in Europe Morningstar Direct Bil S S S S S S Allocation Alternative Fixed Income Equity Money Market Others Total (rh) Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 7

8 Asset Management : Introduction Les investisseurs sont poussés à prendre des risques The Great Translation, not the Great Rotation +++ Equity Funds Reward --- Cash Money Market Funds Short Term IG Bond Funds IG Diversify Bond Funds High Yield Bond Funds Convertibles Bond Funds --- Risk Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 8 8

10 La liquidité des passifs des produits d épargne est faible en France In France, 4000 Bil are invested in financial assets by Households 63% (or 2550 Bil) are invested in Bond & Liquid Products Financial assets of households in France AMF - Division Études, stratégie et Risques - ECB Morningstar Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 10

11 La liquidité des passifs des produits d épargne est faible en Europe In Europe, 39% of the financial assets are invested in Cash Deposit products Financial assets of households in Europe AMF - Division Études, stratégie et Risques - ECB Morningstar 100% 90% 80% 13% 23% 39% 28% 70% 66% 61% 60% 50% 40% 65% 49% 33% 33% Life Insurance & Pension Funds Cash Deposit Equities & Funds Bonds (direct) 30% 20% 10% 0% 21% 29% 22% 15% 28% 27% 18% 10% 10% 7% 1% 2% 2% 1% Germany Spain France Italy Netherlands UK Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 11

12 Malheureusement les rendements des actifs sans risque ne sont plus suffisantsdansl absolu et en relatif par rapport à l inflation From a Risk Free Rate Environment to a Rate Free Risk Environment Real Rates are negative, unbearable for investors 10 year Government Bond Yields Morningstar 16% 14% USA Germany Japan 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 12

16 Poussant ainsi les investisseurs à sauter d opportunité en opportunité ETFs, Central Banks, no risk free rate : The herd behaviour is fast & furious An example with the Flows in the Emerging Markets, Commodities, Currencies 2012 Emerging Debt inflows 2014 Emerging Debt inflows 2013 Emerging Debt outflows Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 16

17 Un déplacement des liquiditésfacilité par la technologie On Mobile, Digitalization, Social Networks, Internet Passive Information Sometimes Alone Push Active Information Sometimes Alone Pull Active Communication All the time With everyone Network Effect ATAWAD Any Time Any Where Any Device Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 17

18 Un effetmoutonnierrenforcé par le développement des ETF/ETP All the Index Funds (incl. ETFs) already represents 24% of the AuM in the US, 10% in Europe % of Assets in Index Versus Non-Index Funds by Region 2015 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 18

19 Liquidité + Fraisfaibles + Beta : Les ETF/ETP se développent aussi sur les marchésobligataires The Passive funds gain market share in Europe YTD 2015 : 16% of Net Inflows are coming from ETF (42 Bil / 255 Bil) 3% 6% Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 19

20 Il y a ETP et ETP! Fees, Size, Liquidity : The distinction between the Top100 and the others is crucial ETP breakdown by Assets and Net flows Morningstar Direct % of total ETP % of total ETP Equi-weighted Capi-weighted Assets Net Flows Average TER (%) Average TER (%) Top % 64% 0,35% 0,26% Remaining % 36% 0,63% 0,46% Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 20

21 La recherche de rendement + désintermédiation : Les institutionnels & fonds se substituent aux banques The Financial Markets are facing a disruption : Infra Debt, Real Estate Debt, Munies, Corporate EuroPP, Leveraged Loans, LBO Mezzanine Hybrid Debt, Convertibles, Private Debt, CoCo s Bond Net Inflows in Europe EUR Fixed Income Categories Morningstar Billions 150 EUR Souverain EUR Credit Corp + HY EUR Aggregate Morningstar. All Rights Reserved

22 Concentration sur quelquesfonds : The Winner takes all The top 5 has raised as much Assets as 675 Companies The top 23 collected 50% of the Net Inflows YTD 2015 Inflows YTD 2015 by Number of Cpies (4 clusters) in Bil in Europe S Morningstar Direct Inflows Bil Amundi UBS Eurizon Capital ishares JPMorgan Deutsche Bank Allianz GI Nordea Pioneer Investments Credit Suisse Lyxor Vanguard Fidelity Candriam Standard Life Henderson 675 Number of Cpies [+10] [10;5] [5;1] [1;0] Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 22

23 Concentration sur quelquesfonds : The Winner takes all In the Fixed Income categories, 3% of the Asset Managers concentrate 50% of the Assets 3% ou 25 sociétés concentrent 50% des encours des fondsobligataires 5% ou 379 fonds concentrent 50% des encours des fondsobligataires 97% ou 674 sociétés 95% ou 6235 fonds July 2015 Morningstar Direct Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 23

26 Les professionnelsont les outils pour analyser et gérercerisque au niveau d un titre, d un fonds, d un marché Size and Liquidity Quartile Portfolios, Morningstar Low Liquidity Mid Liquidity High Liquidity Micro Caps Return 15,36% 9,94% 1,32% 14,04% Risk 23,77% 15,40% 6,78% 16,99% Small Caps Return 15,30% 11,80% 5,48% 9,82% Risk 20,15% 28,22% 31,21% -11,06% Mid Caps Return 13,61% 12,24% 7,85% 5,76% Risk 17,91% 22,41% 28,71% -10,80% Large Caps Return 11,53% 11,19% 8,37% 3,16% Risk 16,68% 18,34% 25,75% -9,07% ,83% -1,25% -7,05% 7,09% -2,94% -18,97% Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 26

28 Conclusion Et les particuliers? L adaptation nécessaire des passifs des produits d épargne Les produits en rente (PERP, PERCO ) L épargne retraite collective Assurance vie Euro-croissance (8 ans -> 30 ans) Assurance vie Viegénération Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 28

29 Conclusion La dichotomie de l industrie de la gestion Premium Pas/Peu liquide High Alpha LTF Fonds a échéance Structurés Newcits Low Cost Liquide Free Beta Strategic Beta ETF UCITS Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 29

30 Conclusion La transparence et la communication aux investisseurs Solvency2, Basel 3, ESG : Des indicateurspertinents et simples pour identifier les risques et prendre les bonnesdécisions Portfolio Holdings Inventaire Analysis Evaluation Change Transformation 48% 63% Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 30

31 Disclaimer Document réservé aux professionnels Confidentiel Ne pas diffuser Ce document Morningstar est une présentation appartenant à Morningstar qui en conserve l entière propriété intellectuelle ainsi que l exclusivité des droits de reproduction, de traduction et de présentation. La diffusion de l information contenue dans ces documents et la reproduction même partielle et par quelque procédé que ce soit est interdite sans l'autorisation préalable de Morningstar. Ces informations mises à disposition par Morningstar ne constituent en aucun cas une offre ou une sollicitation à investir dans un quelconque produit. Attention, ces informations sont uniquement indicatives. Ces informations n'ont aucune valeur contractuelle et ne peuvent être considérées comme exhaustives ou exemptes d'erreurs accidentelles. Morningstar décline toute responsabilité concernant le résultat d'investissements réalisés sur la base des informations et opinions présentées dans cette brochure. Disclaimer The information made available by Morningstar in no way constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation to invest in any of the products presented. This information has no contractual value and is not guaranteed to be exhaustive or exempt from unintentional errors. Copyright Morningstar. No advertising, no use of any information made available therein without prior approval from Morningstar in writing. No distribution of the information available is authorized in any way. Morningstar France 52 rue de la Victoire Paris T / F / Morningstar Investment Consulting France Société de conseil en investissements financiers Enregistrée sous le n D auprès de la CNCIF Association agréée auprès de l'autorité des Marchés Financiers 2015 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved.