Characterization of weather types in Morocco for extreme situations of temperature

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Christian Cormier
il y a 6 ans
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Faculté des Sciences de Rabat HydroSciences

1 Faculté des Sciences de Rabat HydroSciences Montpellier École Hassania des Travaux Publics Characterization of weather types in Morocco for extreme situations of temperature K.KHOMSI, G.MAHE, M.SINAN, M.SNOUSSI Cosenza 15 17/09/2011 IV International WORKSHOP on HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

2 Framework and aims Framework & aims Data & Methodology Results Climate change impact on the climate and water ressources of the Bouregreg and Tensift watersheds SIGMED project: Spatial approach of the impact of agricultural activities in the Maghreb on sediment transport and water resources in major watersheds Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

3 Tensift Bouregreg

4 Bouregreg Tensift - Name: Bouregreg Basin - Area: 9770 Km 2 - Place: Rabat-Salé totally & Khemisset and Khenifra partly - Topography: Mountains, Hills & Plateaus - Climate: semi-arid - Name: Tensift Basin - Area: Km 2 - Place: Marrakech totally & Safi and Essaouira partly - Topography: High Atlas, Houz plain & Jbilet (small mountains) - Climate: arid

5 Bouregreg -Kenitra -Kasba Tadla

6 Tensift -Safi -Marrakech

7 Data Framework & aims Data & Methodology Results - Daily Maximum Temperature - Daily Mean Temperature - Daily Minimum Temperature Kenitra ( ) Kasba Tadla ( ) Safi ( ) Marrakech ( ) - Weather type maps Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

8 Methodology 1. The study of daily series evolution : annual scale Framework & aims Data & Methodology Results 2. The study of daily series evolution : seasonal scale 3. The study of extreme events of temperature: daily maximum temperature of each 5 years 4. The study of extreme events of temperature each year during the 5 last years Cosenza 15 17/09/ The study of temperature extreme situation weather types in 2009

9 Results Temperature evolution Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Annual scale Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

10 Lineare (TMIN) 10 Lineare (TMOY) 5 0 Température de Kasba Tadla TMAX TMIN TMOY Lineare (TMAX) Lineare (TMIN) Lineare (TMOY) Température Safi 0 TMAX TMIN TMOY Lineare (TMAX) Lineare (TMIN) Lineare (TMOY) Température Kenitra TMAX TMIN TMOY Lineare (TMAX) Température Marrakech TMAX TMIN TMOY Lineare (TMAX) Lineare (TMIN) Lineare (TMOY)

11 Results Temperature evolution Annual scale Temperature evolution Extreme events Tmax Tmin Tmean Weather types Kenitra Safi Kasba Tadla Marrakech Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

12 Results Temperature evolution Seasonnal scale Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types A dry month is a month that has an average rainfall in millimeters equal or less than twice its average temperature (P 2T ). Bagnouls & Gaussen (1953,1957). Climograph of 10 meteorological stations Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

13 120 Diagramme ombrothermique Janvier Fevrier Mars Avril Mai Juin Juillet Août Septembre Octobre Novembre Décembre Oujda Tanger Kenitra Safi Laayoune Dakhla Fes Kasba Tadla Marrakech Agadir Cold season: November, December, January, february - Hot season: June, July, August, September

14 Température maximale Kasba Tadla TMAX HIVER TMAX ÉTÉ Lineare (TMAX HIVER) Lineare (TMAX ÉTÉ) Température maximale Safi TMAX HIVER TMAX ÉTÉ Lineare (TMAX HIVER) Lineare (TMAX ÉTÉ) Température maximale Safi TMAX HIVER TMAX ÉTÉ Lineare (TMAX HIVER) Lineare (TMAX ÉTÉ) Température maximale Marrakech TMAX HIVER TMAX ÉTÉ Lineare (TMAX HIVER) Lineare (TMAX ÉTÉ)

15 TMIN HIVER 13 TMIN ÉTÉ Lineare (TMIN HIVER) 11 Lineare (TMIN ÉTÉ) Température minimale Kasba Tadla 15 TMIN HIVER TMIN ÉTÉ Lineare (TMIN HIVER) 10 Lineare (TMIN ÉTÉ) Température minimale Safi TMIN HIVER TMIN ÉTÉ Lineare (TMIN HIVER) Lineare (TMIN ÉTÉ) Température minimale Kenitra Température minimale Marrakech TMIN HIVER TMIN ÉTÉ Lineare (TMIN HIVER) Lineare (TMIN ÉTÉ)

16 Température moyenne Kasba Tadla 20 TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ 15 Lineare (TMOY HIVER) Lineare (TMOY ÉTÉ) 10 Température moyenne Safi TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ Lineare (TMOY HIVER) Lineare (TMOY ÉTÉ) Température moyenne Kenitra TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ Lineare (TMOY HIVER) Lineare (TMOY ÉTÉ) Température moyenne Marrakech TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ Lineare (TMOY HIVER) Lineare (TMOY ÉTÉ)

17 Results Temperature evolution Seasonal scale Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Cold Tmax Warm Cold Tmin Warm Cold Tmean Warm Kenitra Safi Kasba Tadla Marrakech Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

18 Results Extreme events Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types The study of seasonal events of maximal temperature using percentile calculation during each 5 years. The percentiles used are: the 95th and the 99th. Rare extreme events Very rare extreme events 95 th Days Tmax < 99 th 99 th Days Tmax A rare (very rare) extreme event of 2, 3, 4, days is a sequence of 2, 3, 4, rare (very rare) events of one day. Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

19 Evolution of percentiles : Cold season Percentile Kenitra Froide % 95% MoyTmax MoyT MoyTmin Lineare (99%) Lineare (95%)

20 Evolution of 1 day rare extreme events : cold season Evt rares 1j Kasba Tadla - Froide Evt rares 1j Marrakech - Froide Evt rares 1j Evt rares 1j Lineare (Evt rares 1j)

21 Evolution of 1 day rare extreme events : Hot season Evt rares 1j kenitra - Chaude Evt rares 1j Marrakech - Chaude Evt rares 1j Lineare (Evt rares 1j) 31.5 Evt rares 1j Lineare (Evt rares 1j)

22 Evolution of 1 day very rare extreme events : cold season Evt Trares 1j Kenitra - froide Evt Trares 1j Safi - Froide Evt Trares 1j Evt Trares 1j Evt Trares 1j Kasba Tadla - Froide 12 Evt Trares 1j Marrakech - Froide Evt Trares 1j Evt Trares 1j

23 Evolution of 1 day very rare extreme events : Hot season Evt Trares 1j Kenitra - Chaude Evt Trares 1j Safi - Chaude Evt Trares 1j 6.5 Lineare (Evt Trares 1j) Evt Trares 1j Evt Trares 1j Kasba Tadla - Chaude 9.5 Evt Trares 1j Marrakech - Chaude Evt Trares 1j Evt Trares 1j

24 Results Extreme events Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Kenitra 1day rare extreme event Cold Warm 1day very rare extreme event Cold Warm Safi Kasba Tadla Marrakech Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

25 Evolution of more than 1 day rare extreme events : cold season 3.5 Evt rares > 1j Kasba Tadla - Froide Evt rares 2j Evt rares 3j Evt rares 4j Evt rares 5j Evt rares 6j Evt rares 7j Evt rares 8j Evt rares 9j Evt rares 12j

26 Evolution of more than 1day rare extreme events : Hot season 12 Evt rares > 1j Kenitra - Chaude Evt rares 2j Evt rares 3j Evt rares 4j Evt rares 5j

27 Evolution of more than 1 day very rare extreme events : cold season 1.2 Evt Trares > 1j Kasba Tadla - Froide Evt Trares 2j Evt Trares 3j Evt Trares 4j

28 Evolution of more than 1 day very rare extreme events : Hot season 6 Evt Trares > 1j kenitra - Chaude Evt Trares 2j Evt Trares 3j Evt Trares 4j

29 Results Extreme events More than 1 day rare events evolution: Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types - Decrease of 2 Days extreme events in both seasons - Increase of 3 & 4 Days extreme events in both seasons - Apparition of longer rare events: 11D (Safi) & 12D (Kasba Tadla) Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

30 Results Extreme events Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types The study of seasonal events of maximal temperature using percentile calculation during each year between 2005 and The percentiles used are: the 95th and the 99th. Rare extreme events Very rare extreme events 95 th Days Tmax < 99 th 99 th Days Tmax A rare (very rare) extreme event of 2, 3, 4, days is a sequence of 2, 3, 4, rare (very rare) events of one day. Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

31 Results Weather types Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types 16 weather types in Morocco Summer Circulation Winter Circulation Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

32 Results Weather types Summer Circulation Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Regime of East : Chergui Mauritania nslow perturbatio n Summer Circulation and close periodes Ridge axis on Morocco Cosenza 15 17/09/2011 Moroccan quasistationary front Cold tails front regimes

34 Winter Circulation Weather types Cyclogenesis in the East of Balears Disturbed weather of SW Disturbed weather of NW SO disturbance Disturbed weather of North NO disturbance Winter Circulation Disturbed weather of NE Cyclogenesis on Spain SO : North disturbance Continental, polar air discharge dry and subsiding Accelerated Ouest Disturbance Narrow Trough from N or NE

36 Results Weather types Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Weather type Disturbed weather of SW 5 Dorsal axis on Morocco 4 Moroccan quasi-stationary 4 front East regime: chergui 3 Cold front tails regime 3 NW disturbance 3 Slow mauritanian dusturbance 2 Cyclogenisis on east Boreal 1 Frequency Frequency and weather types related to rare situations of maximum temperature in 2009 Cosenza 15 17/09/2011

37 Thank you

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