Mardi 3 février 2015 INVITATION WORKSHOP

Transcription

1 Mardi 3 février 2015 INVITATION Enrico Zio, le Directeur de La Chaire Science des Systèmes et Défi Énergétique (SSDE) et l Institut de Science du Risque et Incertitude (ISRI) vous invitent au WORKSHOP VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES: ISSUES, METHODS AND APPLICATIONS 9:30-10:00 Welcome cafe 10:00 12:00 Workshop en présence de Dr Georgios Giannopoulos, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Italy, Prof. Giovanni Sansavini, Institute of Energy Technology, ETH Zurich, Suisse, Prof. Roberto Setola, Director of Research at Ce.Mi.S.S (Centro Mitilare di Studi Strategici), Italy 12:00 12:30 Closing discussion. Salle D401, Bâtiment Dumas, École Centrale Paris Réponse avant le 27 janvier à corinne.ollivier@ecp.fr École centrale Paris, Grande Voie des Vignes CHATENAY-MALABRY,

2 Chaire Science des Systèmes et Défi Energétique (SSDE) Chair on Systems Science and the Energy Challenge (SSEC) La Chaire Science des Systèmes et Défi Énergétique (SSDE, fr)) est partagée entre l'école Centrale Paris (ECP, et Supélec ( avec le soutien de la Fondation Européenne pour les Énergies de Demain (FEED) d Électricité de France (EDF, Les activités de la chaire ont commencé en mars 2010 avec l'arrivée d'enrico Zio, professeur et ancien directeur de l'école doctorale au Politecnico di Milano, Italie. Les activités de la chaire ont été orientées sur le développement, la mise en œuvre et l'utilisation de modèles computationnels et de méthodes et algorithmes numériques pour analyser le comportement lors de défaillances des systèmes énergétiques complexes et des incertitudes associées. Les thèmes de recherche de la chaire sont l ingénierie de la fiabilité, de la disponibilité et de la maintenance, de l étude de risques, de l'évaluation de la sécurité et de la sûreté, et l analyse de la vulnérabilité. Plus précisément, le cadre de recherche sur les systèmes énergétiques et les composants s intéresse aux méthodes de (Figure 1) : Simulation Prévision Optimisation Modélisation de modes de défaillance et de dégradation Analyse du risque, de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience 2 The Chair on Systems Science and the Energy Challenge (SSEC, www. ssde.fr) is shared between Ecole Centrale Paris (ECP, and Supelec ( and is supported by the European Foundation for New Energy of Electricite De France (EDF, The Chair activities, started in Mars 2010 with the arrival of Enrico Zio, professor and former Director of the PhD School at the Politecnico di Milano, Italy. The Chair activities have focused on the development, implementation and use of computational models, methods and algorithms for the analysis of the failure behavior of complex energy systems and the related uncertainties. Then, the research topics of interest for the Chair cover aspects related to reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) engineering, risk assessment, safety and security evaluation, vulnerability and resilience analysis. More specifically, the research on energy systems and components involves methods for (Figure 1): Simulation Prediction Optimization Degradation and Failure Modeling RAM, Risk, Vulnerability, Resilience Analysis

3 Modélisation de modes de défaillance et de dégradation Modélisation du risque, de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience Systèmes énergétiques et composants Simulation Prédiction Optimisation Figure 1: cadre de recherche Degradation/Failure Modeling RAM/Risk/Vulnerability/Resilience Modeling Energy Systems and components Simulation Prediction Optimization Figure 1: Research framework Deux axes de recherche principaux peuvent être distingués (Figure 2) : Axe 1 : Caractérisation du vieillissement et de la défaillance des composants des usines de production Axe 2 : Analyse des systèmes énergétiques Two main research axes can be distinguished (Figure 2): Axis 1: Characterization of the aging and failure behavior of production plant components Axis 2: Energy systems analysis 3

4 Ces deux axes se subdivisent en un certain nombre de recherches (Figure 2) faites par : les deux professeurs adjoints : le Dr Yanfu Li de l Université Nationale de Singapour (génie industriel) et le Dr Nicola Pedroni de Politecnico di Milano (génie nucléaire) Deux post-docs : le Dr. Elisa Ferrario de l Ecole Centrale Paris et le Dr. Elizaveta Kutnetsova de l Universite de Versaille Saint Quentin les 10 doctorants : Yiping Fang (Chine, 3 éme année), Fangyuan Han (Chine, 2 ème année), Yanhui Lin (Chine, 2 ère année), Chung- Kung Lo (Taiwan, 3 ème année), Jie Liu (Chine, 3 ème année), Liu Xing (Chine, 2 ère année), Rodrigo Mena (Chili, 3 ème année), Muxia Sun (Chine, 2 ème année), Pietro Turati (Italie, 2 ème année), Tairan Wang (Chine, 3 ème année) les deux étudiants en Master : Rim Louichi et Paul Anton Verwiebe ainsi que diverses collaborations internationales These two axes develop into a number of individual researches (Figure2) carried out by: 2 assistant professors: Dr. Yanfu Li from National University of Singapore (industrial engineering) and Dr. Nicola Pedroni from Politecnico di Milano (nuclear engineering) 2 post-docs: Dr. Elisa Ferrario from Ecole Centrale Paris and Dr. Elizaveta Kutnetsova from Universite de Versaille Saint Quentin 10 PhD students: Yiping Fang (China, 3 rd year), Fangyuan Han (China, 2 nd year), Yanhui Lin (China, 2 nd year), Chung-Kung Lo (Taiwan, 3 rd year), Jie Liu (China, 3 rd year), Xing Liu (China, 2 nd year), Rodrigo Mena (Chile, 3 rd year), Muxia Sun (China, 2 nd year), Pietro Turati (Italy, 2 nd year), Tairan Wang (China, 3 rd year) 2 Master students: Rim Louichi et Paul Anton Verwiebe and several international collabrations 4

5 Figure 2 : Axes de recherche Figure 2: Research axes Voici des exemples de thèmes de recherche abordés : Estimation des intervalles de prédiction d indicateurs d'énergie, par exemple, l'énergie éolienne, la charge, la capacité de transfert, etc. Méthodes «kernel-based» du traitement du signal pour le diagnostic et le pronostic de défaillance des composants du système électrique Modélisation multi-états fondée sur la physique des processus de dégradation des composants et des structures Examples of topics addressed in the research are: Prediction intervals estimation of energy quantities, e.g. wind power, load, available transfer capacity, etc. Kernel-based pattern recognition methods for fault diagnosis and prognosis of electrical system components Multi-state physics-based modeling of degradation processes in components and structures 5

6 Agent de la modélisation, simulation et l'analyse des systèmes de micro-réseaux Modèle prédictif de contrôle pour la gestion de l'énergie en microréseau Algorithmes évolutionnistes pour une optimisation multi-objectifs robuste en cas d incertitude Analyse d incertitude dans l évaluation des risques sismiques Système de systèmes d analyse des risques liés à des événements extérieurs ; Analyse complexe des systèmes de vulnérabilité : échec en cascade et modélisation de la résilience Prise de décision selon plusieurs critères pour l analyse de la vulnérabilité des systèmes énergétiques complexes Intégration de la théorie du contrôle et de la théorie de fiabilité pour l analyse des systèmes complexes Méthodes de simulation avancées de type Monte Carlo pour l analyse de la fiabilité des systèmes énergétiques complexes Techniques avancées pour les systèmes évolutifs d optimisation de l énergie Les résultats de la recherche ont donné lieu à : des publications dans des revues scientifiques à l international avec évaluation par un comité de lecture ; des présentations à des conférences internationalement reconnues ; Agent-based modeling, simulation and analysis of micro-grid systems Model Predictive Control for micro-grid energy management Evolutionary algorithms for robust multi-objective optimization under uncertainty Uncertainty analysis in seismic risk assessment System-of-systems analysis of risk from external events Complex systems vulnerability analysis: failure cascade and resilience modeling Multi-criteria decision making for the vulnerability analysis of complex energy systems Integration of control theory and reliability theory for the analysis of complex systems Advanced Monte Carlo simulation methods for the reliability analysis of complex energy systems Advanced evolutionary techniques for energy systems optimization Outcomes of the research are in the form of: Publications on international, peer-reviewed scientific journals Presentations at internationally recognized conferences 6

7 des logiciels pour la démonstration des concepts et méthodes (la mise en œuvre pratique et / ou la commercialisation des outils développés ne fait pas partie de l objectif de la recherche). La Chaire est également impliquée dans les activités d enseignement avec, en particulier, des contributions à la formation Master International de l énergie nucléaire. Les efforts de la chaire visent à contribuer à résoudre certains des défis des systèmes énergétiques de demain, qui sont multiples et systémiques et qui impliquent une pluridisciplinarité des compétences et de l expertise. Pour le scénario selon lequel les systèmes énergétiques sont vivants, des questions se posent sur la vulnérabilité et les risques associés à leur développement et exploitation futurs, c est à dire à la possibilité que les capacités et les marges de sécurité soient conçues, gérées et maintenues pour répondre à une demande de plus en plus grande dans des conditions d intégration croissante avec d autres infrastructures critiques (systèmes de systèmes) et de la déréglementation du marché, sans pour autant diminuer la sureté, la sécurité et la fiabilité des opérations et de service. Le degré élevé d inter- et intra-connectivités peut rendre ces systèmes de systèmes vulnérables à une perturbation mondiale, lorsqu ils sont exposés à des risques variés, que ce soit des défaillances aléatoires, mécaniques ou physiques, des défaillances de matériel suite à des événements na- Software for proof of concepts and methods (the practical implementation and/or commercialization of the tools developed is not with in the objective of the research). The Chair is also involved in teaching activities including, in particular, contributions to the International Master of Nuclear Energy and the Master of Industrial Engineering. In the end, the Chair efforts are aimed at contributing to address some of the challenges of the energy systems for the future, which are multiple and systemic and involve a multidisciplinarity of competences and expertise. In the scenario of re/evolution that energy systems are living, concerns are arising with regards to the vulnerabilities and risks associated to their future development and operation, i.e., to the possibility that capacities and safety margins be designed, managed and maintained to support the anticipated growing demand under conditions of greater integration with other critical infrastructures (systemsof-systems) and of market deregulation, without diminishing safety, security and reliability of operation and service. The high degree of inter- and intra-connectedness, can make these systems-of-systems vulnerable to global disruption, when exposed to hazards of various nature, from random mechanical/physical/material failures to natural events, intentional malevolent attacks, human errors. This broader spectrum of hazards and threats, calls for an all-hazards approach for the understanding of 7

8 turels ou à des attaques malveillantes intentionnelles, ou suite à des erreurs humaines. Ce large éventail de dangers et de menaces requiert une approche tout risque pour comprendre la dynamique de défaillance de tels systèmes, en vue de leur protection. De nouvelles approches sont nécessaires pour étudier ces systèmes (de systèmes) complexes, et leurs défis, d un point de vue holistique, pour fournir des prévisions fiables sur leur comportement pour permettre leur fonctionnement sûr. En outre, de grandes incertitudes existent dans la caractérisation du comportement des composants du système, de leurs interconnexions et de leurs interactions. En fin de compte, l analyse de ces systèmes ne peut pas être effectuée uniquement par des méthodes classiques de décomposition du système et d analyse logique. Il est nécessaire d intégrer un certain nombre de méthodes permettant d envisager le problème sous des angles différents (topologique et fonctionnelle, statique et dynamique...), compte tenu des incertitudes existantes. Plus d informations sur les activités de la Chaire peuvent être trouvées sur the failure behavior of such systems, in view of their consequent protection. New approaches are needed to look into these complex systems (of systems),and their challenges,from a holistic viewpoint to provide reliable predictions of their behavior for their safe control. Furthermore, large uncertainties exist in the characterization of the behavior of the system components, of their interconnections and interactions. In the end, the analysis of these systems cannot be carried out only with classical methods of system decomposition and logic analysis; a framework is needed to integrate a number of methods capable of viewing the problem from different perspectives (topological and functional, static and dynamic,...), under the existing uncertainties. More information on the activities of the Chair can be found on the web site Enrico Zio Chair Director 8

9 Recent advances in CI resilience assessment of interdependent networks. Georgios Giannopoulos, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Italy JRC and more specifically the Security Technology Assessment Unit (STA Unit), works closely with the Commission services to provide support for policy making in the domain of critical infrastructures conducting also fundamental and applied research in the field. The main topics of research are interdependencies of critical infrastructures, development of risk and resilience assessment tools, as well as tools for the assessment of economic impact of critical infrastructure disruption coupled with machine learning methods for refining the capacity of these tools to accurately estimate the economic impact taking into account the recovery process. During this seminar Dr. Giannopoulos from STA Unit/JRC will provide a comprehensive overview of the recent advances in CIP research conducted by JRC providing the core elements of the above mentioned research activities. Further to this he will provide a more detailed presentation on the latest work in the domain of interdependencies of critical energy infrastructures with ICT networks taking under consideration the element of centralized or distributed controller. The latest achievements will be presented as well as the integration of this analysis module into a GIS based environment for data input as well Dr Georgios Giannopoulos holds a degree in Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering and a PhD in Engineering from Vrije Universiteit Brussel and a management degree from Solvay Brussels School in Economics and Management. He joined the Joint Research Centre in He is currently working in the domain of critical infrastructures risk and resilience modeling with focus on systems of systems perspective. In this framework he is carrying out research in the domain of GIS for risk assessment and resilience for critical infrastructures, interdependencies and economic impact of critical infrastructure disruption. In addition he has been actually involved in the review process of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC on the identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructures supporting DG HOME efforts, he is running the Thematic Network on Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection (TNCEIP) supporting DG ENERGY and he is the project leader of the European Reference Network for Critical Infrastructure Protection (ERNCIP) 9

10 as for visualization purposes. The purpose of this research is to investigate the resilience margins of existing networks and whether those can be expanded making optimal use of the power/ict interdependencies and taking advantage of the characteristics of the controller to keep the grid up and running in cases of disruptive events. 10

11 Vulnerability and Resilience of Future Interdependent Energy Networks Giovanni Sansavini, Institute of Energy Technology, ETH Zurich, Suisse Aiming at a sustainable energy production and at the security of energy supply, many Countries are embracing a transition to an optimized future energy mix encompassing sunlight, mechanical energy and heat together with fossil and synthetic fuels. Under this pressure, the energy infrastructure is evolving from a collection of independently-built, isolated energy carrier networks towards the integration of large-scale multienergy systems. The interconnection of energy networks is instrumental in fostering the use of renewables because it compensates for their inherent volatility, which prevents them from meeting electricity demand everywhere and at all times. Furthermore, the integration of renewables requires large-scale communication networks for real-time processes. The integration of networks yields better possibilities to design an optimal and sustainable energy system. On the other hand, interdependencies also result in more complex systems to design, operate and maintain. In particular, the interconnected nature of these infrastructures makes them vulnerable to cascading failures with catastrophic consequences. In this context, the aim of vulnerability and resilience analysis is to guide the Giovanni Sansavini joined ETH Zurich in June, 2013, as an Assistant Professor of Reliability and Risk Engineering in the Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering (D-MAVT). He received his B.A. in Energy Engineering in 2003 and his M.A. in Nuclear Engineering in 2005 from Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI). In 2010, as a member of the Atlantis Dual Doctoral Degree Program, he received his Doctoral Degree in Radiation Science and Technology from POLIMI and his Doctoral Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Virginia Tech. His doctoral dissertations aimed at developing a methodology for critical infrastructure vulnerability assessment from the standpoint of complex systems theory. As a postdoctoral researcher at Energy Department, POLIMI, he conducted research on the characterization and modeling of the failure behavior of complex systems and critical infrastructures for the study of their reliability, availability, safety, vulnerability, and security, using a computational approach based on advanced Monte Carlo simulation methods, soft computing techniques, and optimization heuristics. 11

12 evolution into the future energy infrastructure through vulnerability-based evaluations. This talk presents ongoing research efforts aimed at developing methods for the vulnerability- and resilience-based planning and operation of interdependent energy networks. In the first part, the impact of fluctuating non-dispatchable energy sources on the vulnerability of electric networks to cascades of line disconnections is quantified. As a protective countermeasure against cascade propagation, a graph-partitioning algorithm is developed to balance the power generation among subnetworks for which the overloaded lines act as power gates. In the second part, the resilience of interdependent infrastructures is investigated. A resilience metric is defined which integrates the system s disruptive and the recovery behaviors. The high-voltage electric power supply system (EPSS) is selected as an exemplary application of interdependent networks to test the capability of the metric. The issues related to the development of models for the vulnerability and resilience of interdependent critical infrastructures are also addressed. 12

13 Interdependent systems Roberto Setola, Director of Research at Ce.Mi.S.S (Centro Mitilare di Studi Strategici), Italy Modern societies largely depend on several infrastructures which become more and more mutual dependent. In this talk will be illustrated some attempts to estimate the relevance of dependencies among infrastructures into a complex scenario taking so as some distributed strategies to mitigate their vulnerabilities with respect to cyber-physical events Roberto Setola (PhD) is Professor of Control Theory at University CAMPUS BioMedico, head of Complex Systems & Security Lab and the director of the second level Master in Homeland Security. Formerly a member of the Italian Prime Minister Office ( ), Mr. Setola was the coordinator of the working-group on Critical Information Infrastructure Protection established by the Italian Prime Minister, a member of the G8 Senior Expert CIIP Group, and an affiliate of the G8 working-group on High-Tech Crime. He has been award by the Italian Republic President in 2004 and Since 1992 he carried out, in collaboration with several universities and research centres, researches on many topics related to modelling, simulation and control of complex networks and systems and about the protection of critical infrastructures. He was involved in more than twelve national and international projects related to critical infrastructure protection, homeland security and healthcare. He has been the coordinator of the EU project SecuFood (on food defence), FACIES (on fault-attack detection in critical infrastructures) and SLO (on the professional figure of the security liaison officer) He is member of several international associations (IFIP Working Group 11:10, Euro SCSIE, Italian Association of Critical Infrastructure, Senior Member IEEE, etc.) and has been involved in more than 20 International Scientific Committee. 13