DigiPolis 2010 Montbéliard 27 mai 2010

Transcription

1 DigiPolis 2010 Montbéliard 27 mai 2010 Risk mapping of technological risks (chemical, biological and aircraft) by means of GIS Risk-Register, the examples of Geneva, Geneva Risk Alberto Susini Geneva, CH Page 1

2 Context and actors Needed to have a decision making tool at regional level Multiple databases were managed by different authorities Budget: subsidy required our cantonal parliament to issue debt Subsidy of 10% from Swiss Federal Office of the Environment Development partnership with the Zurich Canton Extension of the regional partnership with other swiss cantons (Zurich, Aargau, Thurgau, Lucern and Basel) Page 1

3 Partnership with other swiss cantons (Zurich, Aargau, Thurgau and Basel) Comparison with the swiss federal risk register Page 1

4 O Problems facing the authorities Comparing and Prioritizing risks arising from different activities (production plants, storage, road or rail transport, pipelines etc.) Risk estimations as well as the available data may differ considerably Cumulative risks For example air crash into hazardous facilities Transit transports are difficult to treat quantitatively Amounts, types of dangerous goods are not known, lack of truly reliable statistics Conflicts between risk-inducing activities, sitting and land-use planning New risk exposure situation near existing factories How much risk can we allow in a future industrial area Page 1

5 Domains of application Plants subject to the OMA (Swiss Ordinance on Major Hazards) (Seveso compatible) Railway installations (marshalling yards, dangerous goods) Roads with heavy traffic and highways (trafic of dangerous goods) Transport by pipelines (oil and gas) Confined use of pathogenic organisms (CO) in plants Aircraft crash into hazardous facilities Methodological framework the official Swiss OMA methodology (QRA quantified risk assessment) individual risk as developed by agencies in the UK and the Netherlands the methodology of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA 1996) used also in Italy by the Civil protection Page 5

6 Data model of the cantonal risk register Railways Highway Trafic-way Plants Gas pipeline Oil pipeline Aircraft Environment Damage Frequency Population Scenario Release of oil chlorinated substances Risk Principles of risk calculation Scenario Fire, Expl. Toxic, Infection Soil Water Air Death Injuries Groundwater Surface water collective Individual Page 6

7 Common or practical needs for multi-risk maps Unified criterias for risk calculations, generalizaton by use of 1. Reference scenarios with reference substances 2. Reference accidental probabilities 3. Reference calculations for damage extent 4. Allowing the use of site specific data Unified criterias for risk calculations outputs 1. Collective risks 2. Individual risk contours 3. Damage extent 4. Classification / prioritization of risks Interactive ICT structure 1. Data model 2. Data sources 3. Shared data from other databases Page 1

8 Needs of mapping technical risk/hazards Customized information risk management products for different end users 1. Land-use planners: - Damage extent, individual risk contour 2. Emergency response : - Plant location, plant content and properties, collective risks 3. Decision makers, policy authorities (permits, water agencies) : - Prioritization of risks, collective risks, individual risk contours 4. Real estate, engineering companies, public : - Plant location, damage extent Page 1

9 Methodological challenges Information architecture : data sources Data related to hazards managed by the competent authorities : - Exact storages and location of chemicals - Administrative practices (permits, licences, inspections) Shared data managed from other competent centers : - Plant adresses - Cartographic layers - Thematic portals : availability of other environmental data Interactive ICT technologies - Data flows between database and GIS Page 9

10 Institutional actors and information systems : Federal level : Federal risk register on major hazards ECOGEN portal for confined use of organisms (CO) Federal companies diectory (BUR-REE) Cantonal level (Swiss local authority) : Geneva cantonal information system on industrial environment (SI-GEI) Cantonal risk register for calculations (CCR) Cantonal risk register for emergency planning Geneva companies directory (REG) Rivers and hydrological directory of the Geneva water authority Cartographic server and territorial directory (SITG) Page 10

11 IT infrastructure and GIS visualization process Data and process flow of the Geneva Industrial Environment & Risk Management Systems Federal Coordination Center for Biotechnology Geneva Canton Information System Industrial Environnement Management System (SI GEI) Ecogen Projects Information https Inspection site Information Users Ecogen Portal Plant data Federal companies center BUR-REE Geneva Companies Center (REG) Users https Users BUR- https REE Portal Plant Risks Calculation Geomatic Competence Center (SITG) Cantonal Chemical and Biological Risk Management System (CCR) https Users Page 11

12 Information architecture : data standardization Entreprise : EMAS defines 3 descriptive levels : (EU Commission decision of the ) Definition of 3 descriptive levels of a plant Organisation : a company, corporation, firm, enterprise, authority or institution, or part or combination thereof, that has its own functions and administrations Site : a distinct geographic location under the management control of an organisation covering activities, products and services Entity : site or subdivision, organisation, part or group of organisations, used for specific storage or production place in the site Page 12

13 Information architecture : data standardization Plant data linked to a unique identification key identification number name adresse phone, fax, Economic classification activity Number of workers Buildings related to plant activity Kind of workplaces Topographic data (x,y) Example : Geneva Hospital No REE : Unique / specific numerical identification number Page 13

14 Methodology for selecting chemical accidental scenarios: Present situation : Diversity of dangerous substances stored in plants Diversity of accidental scenarios both for population and for water damage Solutions : To select them and bring them by factors to : Reference substances (gasoline, propane, chlorine) Reference scenarios (fire, explosion, toxic) For water damage reference scenarios : escape of oil escape of chlorinated substances Page 14

15 How far goes the damages? Fire Explosion Tox. Gas Fire Explosion Tox. Gas Plants 5-90 m m m Gas pipeline m m Motorway m m m Railway m m m Page 15

16 Biolgical risk calculations : adaptation from the IAEA- Methodology Confined activities involving pathogenic organisms that affect human health and plants Practice-oriented target ; Basis: Simplifications and classifying ; A goal: Estimation of an approximate number of victims in the environment of the plant due to possible incidents ; Steps : quantify the risk of handling pathogenic mo. estimate the probability. estimate the extent of the damage Page 16

17 Cartographic results DigiPolis 2010 Montbéliard 27 mai 2010 Plants: damage surface methodology (toxic release, fire, explosion) Toxic release Fire, explosion Page 17

18 Chemical risks versus biological risks (contained use) in the Geneva area (Fictious results) Page 18

19 (Fictious results) Total collective risks of heavy roads, motorway, railway, gas pipeline (death/year 100m) Page 19

20 Individual risks : entreprises and heavy trafic roads DigiPolis 2010 Montbéliard 27 mai 2010 Fictious results Page 20

21 Digital risk maps of facilities, highway, railway and pipelines and air crash Collective risks (vulnerability zones) Individual risks Fictious results Page 21

22 Data comparison between CH (SITG) and F (PRODIGE) Needs : common transboundary criterias and interconnection for cartographic risk assessment and risk registers DigiPolis 2010 Montbéliard 27 mai 2010 use within the new transboundary land-use planning project Fictious results Page 1

23 Roads : damage to waterways and lakes in the Zurich region Risks for underground waters : transportation roads (ZH) Fictious results Page 1

24 Link among the layers of the cantonal cartographical server (SITG) : GIS facilitates the interpretation of data and of the final results. Accumulated risk layers lead to interesting, results, because several minor events accumulated at the same geographical site might result in a significant total risk (Fictious results) Page 24

25 Principal goal of the integration of aircraft risks To evaluate how the risks for different types of industry, in particular those dealing with dangerous chemicals, may increase due to aircraft operations inside the area of the canton of Geneva This objectives was achieved by : Performing a new complete risk assessment of the airport Adapting calculations and risk mapping production of an existing risk register of major hazard facilties of the Geneva canton Putting together by ICT the results and try to see if the airport air trafic risk has an influence of the existing industrial risk level of major hazard facilities Page 1

26 Integration of Airport risks in the risk register : STEP 1 Geneva airport risk mapping project : Global study of the Geneva airport air trafic on individual and collective risks Transformation of the global results in an hectometric raster of aircrash frequency STEP 2 Integration of the hectometric aircrash frequency in the risk register : Integration of the aircrash frequency in the informatic calculation model Calculation of the aircrash damage (maximum release of the stored chemical substance) Calculation of the new aircraft risk on the facility Page 26

27 Integration of of the hectare raster of aircrash probability in the cantonal risk register (CRR) The CRR is used to manage the risk calculation data of industrial facilities Numerical models were defined and applied to the release and dispersion calculations for a range of sources of risk for the population Fictious results DigiPolis 2010 Montbéliard 27 mai Page 1

28 A special geomatic interface RCat ArcGIS, makes it possible to import and perform calculations necessary for cartographic risk mapping more efficiently. File exchange between the CRR and the RCat for calculations and map visualizations were implemented. To integrate the aircraft risk calculations, it was necessary to adapt the CRR Oracle database to be the RCat interface Page 1

29 Risk contribution (risk due to aircraft accidents in comparison to risk due to normal accident scenarios) (fictive results) Fictious results Page 1

30 Institutional use of the geneva cantonal risk register DigiPolis 2010 Montbéliard 27 mai 2010 The risk register has become part of the cantonal environmental legislation Chart and process flow of the risk register as other state environmental missions and outputs of well defined risk mapping products Page 30

31 Wrap-up The project achieved : The validation of 21 thematic and global charts Availability of an online information chart for the public ( Sharing of information among stakeholders (prevention and management of major hazards) Link between major hazards and land use planning practices Accurate financial management by the help of a regional partnership (now 6 swiss cantons) Estimated total cost is Euros 300'000 (60'000 Euros/new layer) Maintenance costs for GIS and Data-Base are Euros 40'000 Euros/year Page 31

32 Integrated Risk-Register Future developments DigiPolis 2010 Montbéliard 27 mai 2010 Flood Earthquake Technical risk Biological risk Integrated Risk-Register Conversion in : Landuse planning Authority activity Page 32