Les TIC sans limite?

Transcription

1 Les TIC sans limite? Prof. Jean-Pierre Raskin Institute of Information and Communication Technologies, Electronics and Applied Mathematics (ICTEAM) Université catholique de Louvain (UCL) 8 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium jean-pierre.raskin@uclouvain.be Energie ou données : faut-il choisir?

2 Plus de trafic = Plus de ressources/énergie = Plus de gaz à effet de serre 8% % +8% CAGR when global GHG should drop by %

3 La partie immergée de l iceberg : infrastructures Things Device of Access network Internet Data centers

4 Energie consommée par les TIC Life Cycle Assessment Device Production phase Access network Usage phase Data centers Usage phase Manque de données sur la fin de vie ~% of consumed power for the fabrication of ICT equipment

5 Energie consommée au niveau d un Smartphone > 80% of consumed power for the fabrication of the Smartphone Lifetime = 8 months [Prof. D. Bol, UCLouvain]

6 0 Transistors per chip Transistors per chip La loi de Moore Tera 0 Giga Giga 0 8 DRAM Memories Microprocessors Microprocessor 00 billion Number of stars in our galaxy Year

7 I II III IV V VI VII O lithium Li.9() beryllium Be 9.08() sodium Na.9890() magnesium Mg.0(?) rubidium Rb 8.8() strontium 8 Sr 8.() caesium Cs.90() barium Ba.() francium 8 Fr [.09] radium 88 Ra [.0] potassium 9 K 9.098() calcium 0 Ca 0.08() lutetium Lu.9() lawrencium 0 Lr [.0] scandium Sc.990(8) yttrium 9 Y () hafnium Hf 8.9() titanium Ti.8() zirconium 0 Zr 9.() tantalum Ta 80.99() vanadium V 0.9() niobium Nb 9.908() chromium Cr.99() molybdenum Mo 9.9() rhenium Re 8.0() manganese Mn.9809(9) technetium Tc [98.90] osmium Os 90.() iron Fe.8() ruthenium Ru 0.0() iridium Ir 9.() cobalt Co 8.900(9) rhodium Rh 0.900() platinum 8 Pt 9.08() nickel 8 Ni 8.9() palladium Pd 0.() gold 9 Au 9.9() copper 9 Cu.() silver Ag 0.88() mercury 80 Hg 00.9() zinc 0 Zn.9() cadmium 8 Cd.(8) thallium 8 Tl 0.8() gallium Ga 9.() indium 9 In.88() boron B 0.8() aluminium Al.988() lead 8 Pb 0.() germanium Ge.() tin 0 Sn 8.0() carbon C.00(8) silicon Si 8.08() bismuth 8 Bi () arsenic As.90() antimony Sb.0() nitrogen N.00() phosphorus P 0.9() polonium 8 Po [08.98] selenium Se 8.9() tellurium Te.0() oxygen 8 O.999() sulfur S.0() astatine 8 At [09.98] bromine Br 9.90() iodine I.90() fluorine 9 F () chlorine Cl.(9) radon 8 Rn [.0] krypton Kr 8.80() xenon Xe.9() neon 0 Ne 0.9() argon 8 Ar 9.98() helium He.000() lanthanum La 8.90() cerium 8 Ce 0.() thorium 90 Th.08() praseodymium 9 Pr 0.90() protactinium 9 Pa.088() nedodymium 0 Nd.() uranium 9 U 8.089() promethium Pm [.9] neptunium 9 Np [.08] samarium Sm 0.() plutonium 9 Pu [.0] europium Eu.9() americium 9 Am [.0] gadolinium Gd.() curium 9 Cm [.00] terbium Tb 8.9() berkelium 9 Bk [.00] dysprosium Dy.0() californium 98 Cf [.09] holmium Ho.90() einsteinium 99 Es [.080] erbium 8 Er.() fermium 00 Fm [.09] thulium 9 Tm 8.9() mendelevium 0 Md [8.098] ytterbium 0 Yb.0() nobelium 0 No [9.0] tungsten W 8.8() 980's hydrogen H.009() Evolution de la microélectronique Pression sur les matériaux

8 I II III IV V VI VII O lithium Li.9() beryllium Be 9.08() sodium Na.9890() magnesium Mg.0(?) rubidium Rb 8.8() strontium 8 Sr 8.() caesium Cs.90() barium Ba.() francium 8 Fr [.09] radium 88 Ra [.0] potassium 9 K 9.098() calcium 0 Ca 0.08() lutetium Lu.9() lawrencium 0 Lr [.0] scandium Sc.990(8) yttrium 9 Y () hafnium Hf 8.9() titanium Ti.8() zirconium 0 Zr 9.() tantalum Ta 80.99() vanadium V 0.9() niobium Nb 9.908() chromium Cr.99() molybdenum Mo 9.9() rhenium Re 8.0() manganese Mn.9809(9) technetium Tc [98.90] osmium Os 90.() iron Fe.8() ruthenium Ru 0.0() iridium Ir 9.() cobalt Co 8.900(9) rhodium Rh 0.900() platinum 8 Pt 9.08() nickel 8 Ni 8.9() palladium Pd 0.() gold 9 Au 9.9() copper 9 Cu.() silver Ag 0.88() mercury 80 Hg 00.9() zinc 0 Zn.9() cadmium 8 Cd.(8) thallium 8 Tl 0.8() gallium Ga 9.() indium 9 In.88() boron B 0.8() aluminium Al.988() lead 8 Pb 0.() germanium Ge.() tin 0 Sn 8.0() carbon C.00(8) silicon Si 8.08() bismuth 8 Bi () arsenic As.90() antimony Sb.0() nitrogen N.00() phosphorus P 0.9() polonium 8 Po [08.98] selenium Se 8.9() tellurium Te.0() oxygen 8 O.999() sulfur S.0() astatine 8 At [09.98] bromine Br 9.90() iodine I.90() fluorine 9 F () chlorine Cl.(9) radon 8 Rn [.0] krypton Kr 8.80() xenon Xe.9() neon 0 Ne 0.9() argon 8 Ar 9.98() helium He.000() lanthanum La 8.90() cerium 8 Ce 0.() thorium 90 Th.08() praseodymium 9 Pr 0.90() protactinium 9 Pa.088() nedodymium 0 Nd.() uranium 9 U 8.089() promethium Pm [.9] neptunium 9 Np [.08] samarium Sm 0.() plutonium 9 Pu [.0] europium Eu.9() americium 9 Am [.0] gadolinium Gd.() curium 9 Cm [.00] terbium Tb 8.9() berkelium 9 Bk [.00] dysprosium Dy.0() californium 98 Cf [.09] holmium Ho.90() einsteinium 99 Es [.080] erbium 8 Er.() fermium 00 Fm [.09] thulium 9 Tm 8.9() mendelevium 0 Md [8.098] ytterbium 0 Yb.0() nobelium 0 No [9.0] tungsten W 8.8() 980's hydrogen H.009() I II III IV V VI VII O lithium Li.9() beryllium Be 9.08() sodium Na.9890() magnesium Mg.0(?) rubidium Rb 8.8() strontium 8 Sr 8.() caesium Cs.90() barium Ba.() francium 8 Fr [.09] radium 88 Ra [.0] potassium 9 K 9.098() calcium 0 Ca 0.08() lutetium Lu.9() lawrencium 0 Lr [.0] scandium Sc.990(8) yttrium 9 Y () hafnium Hf 8.9() titanium Ti.8() zirconium 0 Zr 9.() tantalum Ta 80.99() vanadium V 0.9() niobium Nb 9.908() chromium Cr.99() molybdenum Mo 9.9() rhenium Re 8.0() manganese Mn.9809(9) technetium Tc [98.90] osmium Os 90.() iron Fe.8() ruthenium Ru 0.0() iridium Ir 9.() cobalt Co 8.900(9) rhodium Rh 0.900() platinum 8 Pt 9.08() nickel 8 Ni 8.9() palladium Pd 0.() gold 9 Au 9.9() copper 9 Cu.() silver Ag 0.88() mercury 80 Hg 00.9() zinc 0 Zn.9() cadmium 8 Cd.(8) thallium 8 Tl 0.8() gallium Ga 9.() indium 9 In.88() boron B 0.8() aluminium Al.988() lead 8 Pb 0.() germanium Ge.() tin 0 Sn 8.0() carbon C.00(8) silicon Si 8.08() bismuth 8 Bi () arsenic As.90() antimony Sb.0() nitrogen N.00() phosphorus P 0.9() polonium 8 Po [08.98] selenium Se 8.9() tellurium Te.0() oxygen 8 O.999() sulfur S.0() astatine 8 At [09.98] bromine Br 9.90() iodine I.90() fluorine 9 F () chlorine Cl.(9) radon 8 Rn [.0] krypton Kr 8.80() xenon Xe.9() neon 0 Ne 0.9() argon 8 Ar 9.98() helium He.000() lanthanum La 8.90() cerium 8 Ce 0.() thorium 90 Th.08() praseodymium 9 Pr 0.90() protactinium 9 Pa.088() nedodymium 0 Nd.() uranium 9 U 8.089() promethium Pm [.9] neptunium 9 Np [.08] samarium Sm 0.() plutonium 9 Pu [.0] europium Eu.9() americium 9 Am [.0] gadolinium Gd.() curium 9 Cm [.00] terbium Tb 8.9() berkelium 9 Bk [.00] dysprosium Dy.0() californium 98 Cf [.09] holmium Ho.90() einsteinium 99 Es [.080] erbium 8 Er.() fermium 00 Fm [.09] thulium 9 Tm 8.9() mendelevium 0 Md [8.098] ytterbium 0 Yb.0() nobelium 0 No [9.0] tungsten W 8.8() 980's hydrogen H.009() 990's Evolution de la microélectronique Pression sur les matériaux

9 I II III IV V VI VII O lithium Li.9() beryllium Be 9.08() sodium Na.9890() magnesium Mg.0(?) rubidium Rb 8.8() strontium 8 Sr 8.() caesium Cs.90() barium Ba.() francium 8 Fr [.09] radium 88 Ra [.0] potassium 9 K 9.098() calcium 0 Ca 0.08() lutetium Lu.9() lawrencium 0 Lr [.0] scandium Sc.990(8) yttrium 9 Y () hafnium Hf 8.9() titanium Ti.8() zirconium 0 Zr 9.() tantalum Ta 80.99() vanadium V 0.9() niobium Nb 9.908() chromium Cr.99() molybdenum Mo 9.9() rhenium Re 8.0() manganese Mn.9809(9) technetium Tc [98.90] osmium Os 90.() iron Fe.8() ruthenium Ru 0.0() iridium Ir 9.() cobalt Co 8.900(9) rhodium Rh 0.900() platinum 8 Pt 9.08() nickel 8 Ni 8.9() palladium Pd 0.() gold 9 Au 9.9() copper 9 Cu.() silver Ag 0.88() mercury 80 Hg 00.9() zinc 0 Zn.9() cadmium 8 Cd.(8) thallium 8 Tl 0.8() gallium Ga 9.() indium 9 In.88() boron B 0.8() aluminium Al.988() lead 8 Pb 0.() germanium Ge.() tin 0 Sn 8.0() carbon C.00(8) silicon Si 8.08() bismuth 8 Bi () arsenic As.90() antimony Sb.0() nitrogen N.00() phosphorus P 0.9() polonium 8 Po [08.98] selenium Se 8.9() tellurium Te.0() oxygen 8 O.999() sulfur S.0() astatine 8 At [09.98] bromine Br 9.90() iodine I.90() fluorine 9 F () chlorine Cl.(9) radon 8 Rn [.0] krypton Kr 8.80() xenon Xe.9() neon 0 Ne 0.9() argon 8 Ar 9.98() helium He.000() lanthanum La 8.90() cerium 8 Ce 0.() thorium 90 Th.08() praseodymium 9 Pr 0.90() protactinium 9 Pa.088() nedodymium 0 Nd.() uranium 9 U 8.089() promethium Pm [.9] neptunium 9 Np [.08] samarium Sm 0.() plutonium 9 Pu [.0] europium Eu.9() americium 9 Am [.0] gadolinium Gd.() curium 9 Cm [.00] terbium Tb 8.9() berkelium 9 Bk [.00] dysprosium Dy.0() californium 98 Cf [.09] holmium Ho.90() einsteinium 99 Es [.080] erbium 8 Er.() fermium 00 Fm [.09] thulium 9 Tm 8.9() mendelevium 0 Md [8.098] ytterbium 0 Yb.0() nobelium 0 No [9.0] tungsten W 8.8() 980's hydrogen H.009() I II III IV V VI VII O lithium Li.9() beryllium Be 9.08() sodium Na.9890() magnesium Mg.0(?) rubidium Rb 8.8() strontium 8 Sr 8.() caesium Cs.90() barium Ba.() francium 8 Fr [.09] radium 88 Ra [.0] potassium 9 K 9.098() calcium 0 Ca 0.08() lutetium Lu.9() lawrencium 0 Lr [.0] scandium Sc.990(8) yttrium 9 Y () hafnium Hf 8.9() titanium Ti.8() zirconium 0 Zr 9.() tantalum Ta 80.99() vanadium V 0.9() niobium Nb 9.908() chromium Cr.99() molybdenum Mo 9.9() rhenium Re 8.0() manganese Mn.9809(9) technetium Tc [98.90] osmium Os 90.() iron Fe.8() ruthenium Ru 0.0() iridium Ir 9.() cobalt Co 8.900(9) rhodium Rh 0.900() platinum 8 Pt 9.08() nickel 8 Ni 8.9() palladium Pd 0.() gold 9 Au 9.9() copper 9 Cu.() silver Ag 0.88() mercury 80 Hg 00.9() zinc 0 Zn.9() cadmium 8 Cd.(8) thallium 8 Tl 0.8() gallium Ga 9.() indium 9 In.88() boron B 0.8() aluminium Al.988() lead 8 Pb 0.() germanium Ge.() tin 0 Sn 8.0() carbon C.00(8) silicon Si 8.08() bismuth 8 Bi () arsenic As.90() antimony Sb.0() nitrogen N.00() phosphorus P 0.9() polonium 8 Po [08.98] selenium Se 8.9() tellurium Te.0() oxygen 8 O.999() sulfur S.0() astatine 8 At [09.98] bromine Br 9.90() iodine I.90() fluorine 9 F () chlorine Cl.(9) radon 8 Rn [.0] krypton Kr 8.80() xenon Xe.9() neon 0 Ne 0.9() argon 8 Ar 9.98() helium He.000() lanthanum La 8.90() cerium 8 Ce 0.() thorium 90 Th.08() praseodymium 9 Pr 0.90() protactinium 9 Pa.088() nedodymium 0 Nd.() uranium 9 U 8.089() promethium Pm [.9] neptunium 9 Np [.08] samarium Sm 0.() plutonium 9 Pu [.0] europium Eu.9() americium 9 Am [.0] gadolinium Gd.() curium 9 Cm [.00] terbium Tb 8.9() berkelium 9 Bk [.00] dysprosium Dy.0() californium 98 Cf [.09] holmium Ho.90() einsteinium 99 Es [.080] erbium 8 Er.() fermium 00 Fm [.09] thulium 9 Tm 8.9() mendelevium 0 Md [8.098] ytterbium 0 Yb.0() nobelium 0 No [9.0] tungsten W 8.8() 980's hydrogen H.009() 990's I II III IV V VI VII O lithium Li.9() beryllium Be 9.08() sodium Na.9890() magnesium Mg.0(?) rubidium Rb 8.8() strontium 8 Sr 8.() caesium Cs.90() barium Ba.() francium 8 Fr [.09] radium 88 Ra [.0] potassium 9 K 9.098() calcium 0 Ca 0.08() lutetium Lu.9() lawrencium 0 Lr [.0] scandium Sc.990(8) yttrium 9 Y () hafnium Hf 8.9() titanium Ti.8() zirconium 0 Zr 9.() tantalum Ta 80.99() vanadium V 0.9() niobium Nb 9.908() chromium Cr.99() molybdenum Mo 9.9() rhenium Re 8.0() manganese Mn.9809(9) technetium Tc [98.90] osmium Os 90.() iron Fe.8() ruthenium Ru 0.0() iridium Ir 9.() cobalt Co 8.900(9) rhodium Rh 0.900() platinum 8 Pt 9.08() nickel 8 Ni 8.9() palladium Pd 0.() gold 9 Au 9.9() copper 9 Cu.() silver Ag 0.88() mercury 80 Hg 00.9() zinc 0 Zn.9() cadmium 8 Cd.(8) thallium 8 Tl 0.8() gallium Ga 9.() indium 9 In.88() boron B 0.8() aluminium Al.988() lead 8 Pb 0.() germanium Ge.() tin 0 Sn 8.0() carbon C.00(8) silicon Si 8.08() bismuth 8 Bi () arsenic As.90() antimony Sb.0() nitrogen N.00() phosphorus P 0.9() polonium 8 Po [08.98] selenium Se 8.9() tellurium Te.0() oxygen 8 O.999() sulfur S.0() astatine 8 At [09.98] bromine Br 9.90() iodine I.90() fluorine 9 F () chlorine Cl.(9) radon 8 Rn [.0] krypton Kr 8.80() xenon Xe.9() neon 0 Ne 0.9() argon 8 Ar 9.98() helium He.000() lanthanum La 8.90() cerium 8 Ce 0.() thorium 90 Th.08() praseodymium 9 Pr 0.90() protactinium 9 Pa.088() nedodymium 0 Nd.() uranium 9 U 8.089() promethium Pm [.9] neptunium 9 Np [.08] samarium Sm 0.() plutonium 9 Pu [.0] europium Eu.9() americium 9 Am [.0] gadolinium Gd.() curium 9 Cm [.00] terbium Tb 8.9() berkelium 9 Bk [.00] dysprosium Dy.0() californium 98 Cf [.09] holmium Ho.90() einsteinium 99 Es [.080] erbium 8 Er.() fermium 00 Fm [.09] thulium 9 Tm 8.9() mendelevium 0 Md [8.098] ytterbium 0 Yb.0() nobelium 0 No [9.0] tungsten W 8.8() 980's hydrogen H.009() 990's 000's Evolution de la microélectronique Pression sur les matériaux

10 Procédés plus complexes, plus de circuits intégrés vendus + Chip unit fab energy: + % / year (techno scaling) Chip unit sale: + 9% / year (consumption, obsolescence) Global chip fabrication energy footprint: + % / year [Prof. D. Bol, UCLouvain]

11 Matériaux nécessaires pour les TIC et la transition énergétique TIC = 0% of Silver % of Gold 0% of Copper 80% Indium [Vidal, Goffe & Arndt (0: 89)] En 00, la quantité totale d acier, d aluminium, de cuivre et de verre pour les éoliennes et panneaux solaires sera à 8 fois supérieure à la production mondiale en 00

12 Extraire toujours plus ton ore = 0 kg iron Products in 90 Products in 09 Factor of 0 0 ton ore = g Platinum [Prof. M. Ashby, Cambridge Univ.] Quantité d énergie toujours plus importante par quantité de matière extraite

13 Réduction de la concentration en minerai dans la roche Cuivre Nickel % % % <% <% 8 ème 9 ème [Natural Resources, Neither Curse Nor Destiny, p. 90, Lederman & Maloney]

14 L économie circulaire

15 Le recyclage : une solution pour les déchets électroniques? Only out of 0 elements Only - are profitable Gold pays for the others [UMICORE] No more interesting if less than 0 grams of gold per ton of WEEE Not profitable because raw materials are really too cheap

16 Think, design, innovate and act differently Sustainable Development Innovate with limits! Market KPI Nature IC chips/devices Moore s Law atom limit Mobile internet access Cooper s Law Shannon s limit Data centers Koomey s Law Landauers limit

17 Conclusions - Transition vers des technologies appropriées Une optimisation du système techno-économique (économie verte) ne suffira pas (on déplace le problème), une transformation profonde des modes de vie des populations les plus riches est nécessaire Economie circulaire, design modulaire, économie de la fonctionnalité, une technologie centrée sur les besoins de base de l humanité en respect avec son écosystème Nécessité d outils d aide à la décision Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) + continuous technology assessment + débats publics Sortir d une économie basée sur une finance speculative basée sur le mythe du progrès Le législatif comme levier de changement. Les pouvoirs publics doivent défendrent le biens communs et oeuvrer pour soutenir les plus fragiles ici et ailleurs.