L apport de la théorie des jeux à l intelligence territoriale : illustration à partir d un cas

Transcription

1 L apport de la théorie des jeux à l intelligence territoriale : illustration à partir d un cas Michel Carrard To cite this version: Michel Carrard. L apport de la théorie des jeux à l intelligence territoriale : illustration à partir d un cas. / Grand Ouest days of Territorial Intelligence IT-GO, ENTI, Mar 2010, Nantes-Rennes, France. 9p., 2010, INTI-International Network of Territorial Intelligence. <halshs > HAL Id: halshs Submitted on 4 Feb 2013 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

2 ABCDEAAFABEABBEAAAEEBA EBBFEEF ECAB ABCD EAFBAFCBCBAD EDBBC Agrégé d économie et de gestion ACFB BFBAD AFFAAFFEABBA EAAFBAFFDA AAABABFAFBABF ABAAFABFABAAD ABB BAAAAAABADFFA ABBFBAABAFAB DFDBFBBAFCABAFCBBABF CBCBBCBCFABFABCAAFAB EAD FABBCBAFCABFAB FABCFA AF BA AD D D reflexive modellingd ABDA F BDF CAA AD D D ACFBBA CFBDABDCAB 1

3 ABCDEAAFABEABBEAAAEEBA EBBFEEF FCAAFBFBA DC ADAFCBFBFAFCBAFFBBCD ADAABCFCBCAAACFBDABAA CCBCBDBCFEFAADB ABCDAEBF BBFCDAFAFBFCBCFBD ABAFAFFAFBABCAAB BBFCDAABACCAACBBFBDAAFEBF FADAABBAACBABA BFBDAAFEBFCFCBFFF ACAABCFBBAFABABFCAB FCAACFABFFBCFAFF BBACAFFBBCFBDFABFABCDAEBF BABFBAABBACBCAAB CAABBAFFBBCFFBBCCBA FABFAFABAFAFABADFCAABF BFBCCAAFBBABBDFAFBFFABCDAEBFABBA DFFABFABBDFCAA FCFABBCBBAFAFFAFFBBCCAB D B CB F B A BBB BAF AA BBA BCDBFFBFCAAFBFBA ABAFAABFBBAACAAFABAB ABBACFABCAAFABBFBABFBCF ABBFBACFBAFCFD ACAAFAADFFBFAAAB CBDAFFABFBABBCBAFCAB FABFABBBBCCFA EBDABFFAAAABAFFBBCCFACBF CDEAAFAADAAABAFA La théorie des jeux permet de décrire et d analyser FBBAAsous la forme de jeux stratégiques CD. ElleAAABCFBFBAFA CBFAAAFCFDADF BABABFACCFCAABBACCBABF ABBFBAFDFCABABFBCF BACFFFBBAAA CABFBCFFFBCAFCBF A B BD A AA BFBBA F CAB AFCBBABFBFFABBAABCFFBAF BBBFBABFFCBDDCADDBD ABCDEFDAFEC BFBBA F CAB A F BBA CFF A ABABCABBBAFBCFCABCBF BFCDDCBBBBFBCDCB BCBCABBFACAAAE ADFCFBABFBCFBCBDBFFFBABF AAAFBDFCBAAABCFCAAD AFFACAABCBBCDDABFF CAAFDDD F AB F B CFA BAF FFACBABF 2

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

5 AFFAFBFFFCACBAFABDAAFBA FCABBBFBC DAFAAEFDAECAECC AAFAABFDCBABBACACBF BACBABAABFJulien, Alii, 1975)AFBFBFBBA ABBDBFACBDDFBBFBDFD AFFFFDFFDBFAFDFDFBFAFBBFFBFAD DFBABBCAFBAFBACAB AF ABBBDFAFFBAFBBABABDFFDFAFDFAFBD BFBDDAFFAFDAAAFFFDAACBAAAACBD BABAAFABAFDBDABFAAFBDABFDFDAF DABDAFFDADFFBDBDDAFFBDF AFBAFBBDAFFDBCAF FBCCBAABBFBCAABFBCFCBFB AFBB DAFAFBACBFFFA AFBCABBFAAABABBAF CAFAFBABAFFCBBABAAAB FBAAFFF DBFFBAB BFBCFAFBACCDAFCBCBDA BADCFAAFBAFAABFCFBABBA ABBFAFFBFFFDADFAAFDFFDDFD DFFBAFFDBFBFBFBDAFBBFFDFBDD AAFBACFAFBFACCBABD ABBCBBFABBBBB CBABDFAFAFBAFBDFAFCBA AAABACBAABBFBCBCABAAD FAFAFBABDBBBFCBABBBCCFFCF ABFBFABFFBEBDAAFABACF DBFBBFBAFBAFFBBAAAAFF CABABBABFBBFBFDDFDBAFF DAFFDAFBFFFFFBBAFDFBBDDFADFBF FFFAFBBFFFFADFFBDBDDE D B CBFBD B F A B ABBAABFBCBBAABAFBFBCAFDAFF ABCBFBFABFABBAFABA BBBACBFB FADCAAAAD ABCBAABCABFAFFFBB BDDFFDFABDFBDFFABFFDFDDABDFBFB BDDBDBFACBABFBACBF BBABFBFBCBBAACFBFBBA AAFBACBFABBABACCBABDBFFACBBCD BFAFBACBFB CBFBAAFBAAFAAACBBAABBAA ABBCABBBFCFAABDABAABBA BCBFCC AAFBAAFAFBBAFFABB AFBBABCBACFBAFB FFAAFBABCBBFFBFAB BAEFFAAFAACCABBAAFAFBBA FBFB 4

6 FABABFFBBBAFBAAFFFAA CFACABBADFADABBAF ACFCAAFAFFBBCDFBAACFBBA BBBAFFFDFCAAABCB FCAAFECAAFBBABEFBACF CAAFBBAFABCBBABAF BCDAFACDFDFAAF FDFAFBAABBBFBDAB DBABBDABDFBBDBFA AA BBFEEAAFBBAEEDF AAABFFBCBAFFBBCCFACAC AFFBBABCFCAA. CEAAF ABDBFFACABFFCAB CAABBACAABCBAFBCFFBFB ABAFAFAFBFFCCCAFB ABAABBFBFBABBFBBC DCBAFABDAFFBBCFABCBF AACBAAFAABBAABBB - CBABACABCCFFAACBAFAFAADF DFABAABCDAEBF - CBAFBABCBFFFAFFBBCABBFAB ABBFAACBAFBBFFBCAAB - CBABABCAAFAAFAACBABDF FBCBCBADBBACACBABAC - CBA BA ABFF FA F A A CB ABFFFAAFABAFBDAAFEBF EAAAAFBBAEEDF BBAEED A AACBA A BBAEED BBAEED B AACBA Concurrence Coopération Concurrence DE AFEDEDA ABECEDCEA EF DDDDDFBFBCBBAFAFFBBC AAFCEED AFEAEABBA 9 BAACCFAFBBACBBFAB ABBDFABACAFABAABCBBA 10 Le jeu est non-coopératif. Il s effectue en information complète car chaque joueur connaît les configurations du jeu et les gains associés. Par contre, le jeu est en information imparfaite car les joueurs jouant simultanément, ils ne connaissent pas le choix de leurs partenaires. Le jeu sera en information parfaite quand il sera testé avec un groupe de volontaires (cf. plus bas). 5

7 DACDAECCCEADAFFDA FCCAFFBBCBCBFABABFBCAF BC BB A AB A B A AB A FB CAABFBBBBABBCDBADCB FACCBFBCDFAABCBA FABABAABFBCBFAB ABFFBBBFACAF AFFBBCDABFFBFFABAFBABCAAF BACCCFBACBFBB EABEAAEAAF AFFBBC AFFBBC AACBA A AACBA CFDDF D FDBF D A FAFD D CFDDBFDFF D AADFAACBACBABCBDFABFABD F A AB AA B FB CB A F A B A AACBADAAAAFBAACBABA ADFFBAAAACBAA ACBABAD FFCBBBBFBFB BFA CBFBAAFACBABA ABFFADDFBAFABFBCACBFB FCBABACABCBFBCB CCEAAF FBACFBBACFBFBBADAAAAC BBBBAFFBBCFABBDBD CFFCCAFBBBBAFBBDCAABABF ADBFFCBCBFFFBAABBABFAB D AFFACBCFAFA FAFABF EFBBBABBCFFFBBABBFBCFAB FBBADFBBBFFCAABCBFE ADAABCBFCBAAFCABBFBBACC BBBABFBBDCFAABFFFCA CCCFCAEDFADAFACFADBBFB ABAFFCCBACABCBABCDABB BCBADBFAFCBAFFFABBBAABFF ECABDFCABABCBCBFBBFCFBBBA BCBABCFCCAFABBCC 13 Si Nantais et Rennais s étaient montrés initialement favorables à l entreprise, l une des deux parties a, au dernier moment, décliné l invitation. Le groupe devait être composé de douze personnes, à savoir, six nantais et six rennais. ACBACABBCBFEAF AACABACBFBBAFBBFDF AFCFAFBBCBFBAFBBF 6

8 FCABBBAFCCFBFABABFBC ABCBBAB FFFFDAFFFFABFBAFF - FDADAFDFBBBACCACFBCB AFDABBFAFAFFBBCCBBACC BAFCABABBACBABCFA - FFFDAFFDFFABABBFFFFFBFBCFB ABCBBAAFBBDCAABABFFBACCA F BB F CC CFBC B BC AB BABABFBFBDAACBCFABCCBA BFBFBBBFFFFFDF FBFDFBBBCFBAFBBFAFCC BFBDBFCCCBBBABAFF BBFAFCBBABFABFCCB EABAFEAFAEAAFAEAAEABFFAA AFFBBC AACBA A AFFBBC AACBA A AFFBBCAC AFFBBCAC AACBA A CFDDF DDD FDBF DD AACBA CFDDF DDD FDBF DD FAFD DD CFDDBFDFF D A FAFD DD CFDDBFDFF DD EAFCADAAFFBFBBFCFA FCFBAABFCCFABCFBA ACCBCFBAFAAFBBBACABC BAABFFBCFBAABFD AFBACABCBBACBAD BCFBADBDFFBAABFFAF ABCFBADFABFBAFFB CFBABBDBFBCFDBFAB BFFFAAFFEDBF AFFFAACBADFDBAAB FFAFA BDAAACCFAFBFCABBAAAF ACBBFCCBCCCADA AABFBCCFCCCC ABACCBAABFAABABBADA ACCABBAAFCBBBA ACCDBDD 7

9 BFEAAFAEAF ABABBACBBCAAFABACBAF CABACFCBBACFAAFC BFAFCABABBBFCFCFDFACFBBA CFBABBCAACBBAAFBBAF AAEFFCBCBABFACBB FFBFCFABACBBABBAFBBAFFDD FDFFBBAEFFCBBFAFCBFACFBA ACFFCFCABFABBFA FFABCFBABFBBFBBABFAFBAFF AFFFF EBDAFAAFFADBF FBFFBBABFFBCCBBAFCABABFF BABDAAAFBDAACBCA CDAFCFBAFFFBBF CCDFADDACFBBACFBCAABFFB FBBFABADBCADFAFBFAACEFF CBDDBFBBAAABBFF CB AFFBCCFACAFBABBDABC ABFBABDBBFBAAACBAACBBA CAABADADBFFABABCCAFCDF CABAFCBFFABFFCACBFBCAAB FBFFBBABF EBECEA CAADDFAFDAFDBF DDADDCFFFFFABFF ADADDDBFBDBFBFDABDBFDF BD FF FD F FFD AC BAF CBD DDAFFFAFDAFBFAFFDAFFDFDFDFF FDDFBAFFFAFAFFAFFBDAACF BDBBC DDBBFFAAFFFAFDAF BDDEAABFAAABBDDABDDDAFD AD ADDDBFAFFFBFFAFDD CBBADA BDDFAFFBDEAABD CBBA 16 CFABBCCCFAFCCFBBBABFA BAACB 17 ADFBBBFCBCBABCFFF CFAFBDABAFBBAACFBFFCB BAFFABCAFABDABBFBCFBCBABA CCDFFAABFFCFBBBAC 8

10 FBDADADDCACBADCFBAFC F CAB F ABD B F FFF AF FFD AFF C CCF CFDABAB AEDFADDAABADBDD DDADAFDAD CDDFAFFBFFBADFAFFFDBFDBBC DE B D D AB BBFF CAB CFC AFF CAAFABDDFBFDDD BDDABCABDBBFDD BDDCBBABBBFFFABABFCBBAFCAB DDFFBDDDCFFAADAD BDDFAFFBADFDD CADDACFBBAFBBAAFBBABDFBFDF AFFDDD CADBDDCFDFFAFFBDFDBFADADDB 9