Faculté des Sciences de Rabat HydroSciences Montpellier École Hassania des Travaux Publics Characterization of weather types in Morocco for extreme situations of temperature K.KHOMSI, G.MAHE, M.SINAN, M.SNOUSSI Cosenza 15 17/09/2011 IV International WORKSHOP on HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES
Framework and aims Framework & aims Data & Methodology Results Climate change impact on the climate and water ressources of the Bouregreg and Tensift watersheds SIGMED project: Spatial approach of the impact of agricultural activities in the Maghreb on sediment transport and water resources in major watersheds Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Tensift Bouregreg
Bouregreg Tensift - Name: Bouregreg Basin - Area: 9770 Km 2 - Place: Rabat-Salé totally & Khemisset and Khenifra partly - Topography: Mountains, Hills & Plateaus - Climate: semi-arid - Name: Tensift Basin - Area: 19 800 Km 2 - Place: Marrakech totally & Safi and Essaouira partly - Topography: High Atlas, Houz plain & Jbilet (small mountains) - Climate: arid
Bouregreg -Kenitra -Kasba Tadla
Tensift -Safi -Marrakech
Data Framework & aims Data & Methodology Results - Daily Maximum Temperature - Daily Mean Temperature - Daily Minimum Temperature Kenitra (1951-2010) Kasba Tadla (1983-2010) Safi (1956-2010) Marrakech (1941-2010) - Weather type maps Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Methodology 1. The study of daily series evolution : annual scale Framework & aims Data & Methodology Results 2. The study of daily series evolution : seasonal scale 3. The study of extreme events of temperature: daily maximum temperature of each 5 years 4. The study of extreme events of temperature each year during the 5 last years Cosenza 15 17/09/2011 5. The study of temperature extreme situation weather types in 2009
Results Temperature evolution Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Annual scale Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
30 25 20 15 10 5 30 25 20 15 Lineare (TMIN) 10 Lineare (TMOY) 5 0 Température de Kasba Tadla TMAX TMIN TMOY Lineare (TMAX) Lineare (TMIN) Lineare (TMOY) Température Safi 0 TMAX TMIN TMOY Lineare (TMAX) Lineare (TMIN) Lineare (TMOY) 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Température Kenitra TMAX TMIN TMOY Lineare (TMAX) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Température Marrakech TMAX TMIN TMOY Lineare (TMAX) Lineare (TMIN) Lineare (TMOY)
Results Temperature evolution Annual scale Temperature evolution Extreme events Tmax Tmin Tmean Weather types Kenitra Safi Kasba Tadla Marrakech Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Results Temperature evolution Seasonnal scale Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types A dry month is a month that has an average rainfall in millimeters equal or less than twice its average temperature (P 2T ). Bagnouls & Gaussen (1953,1957). Climograph of 10 meteorological stations Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
120 Diagramme ombrothermique 100 80 60 40 20 0 Janvier Fevrier Mars Avril Mai Juin Juillet Août Septembre Octobre Novembre Décembre Oujda Tanger Kenitra Safi Laayoune Dakhla Fes Kasba Tadla Marrakech Agadir -20-40 -60 - Cold season: November, December, January, february - Hot season: June, July, August, September
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Température maximale Kasba Tadla TMAX HIVER TMAX ÉTÉ Lineare (TMAX HIVER) Lineare (TMAX ÉTÉ) 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 Température maximale Safi TMAX HIVER TMAX ÉTÉ Lineare (TMAX HIVER) Lineare (TMAX ÉTÉ) 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1941 1955 1946 1959 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 Température maximale Safi TMAX HIVER TMAX ÉTÉ Lineare (TMAX HIVER) Lineare (TMAX ÉTÉ) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Température maximale Marrakech TMAX HIVER TMAX ÉTÉ Lineare (TMAX HIVER) Lineare (TMAX ÉTÉ) 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
25 20 15 10 5 19 17 15 TMIN HIVER 13 TMIN ÉTÉ Lineare (TMIN HIVER) 11 Lineare (TMIN ÉTÉ) 9 7 5 Température minimale Kasba Tadla 15 TMIN HIVER TMIN ÉTÉ Lineare (TMIN HIVER) 10 Lineare (TMIN ÉTÉ) Température minimale Safi TMIN HIVER TMIN ÉTÉ Lineare (TMIN HIVER) Lineare (TMIN ÉTÉ) 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1941 1955 1946 1959 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 Température minimale Kenitra 25 20 5 0 Température minimale Marrakech TMIN HIVER TMIN ÉTÉ Lineare (TMIN HIVER) Lineare (TMIN ÉTÉ) 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Température moyenne Kasba Tadla 20 TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ 15 Lineare (TMOY HIVER) Lineare (TMOY ÉTÉ) 10 Température moyenne Safi 24 22 20 18 16 TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ Lineare (TMOY HIVER) Lineare (TMOY ÉTÉ) 14 12 10 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Température moyenne Kenitra TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ Lineare (TMOY HIVER) Lineare (TMOY ÉTÉ) 35 30 25 5 0 Température moyenne Marrakech TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ TMOY HIVER TMOY ÉTÉ Lineare (TMOY HIVER) Lineare (TMOY ÉTÉ) 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Results Temperature evolution Seasonal scale Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Cold Tmax Warm Cold Tmin Warm Cold Tmean Warm Kenitra Safi Kasba Tadla Marrakech Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Results Extreme events Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types The study of seasonal events of maximal temperature using percentile calculation during each 5 years. The percentiles used are: the 95th and the 99th. Rare extreme events Very rare extreme events 95 th Days Tmax < 99 th 99 th Days Tmax A rare (very rare) extreme event of 2, 3, 4, days is a sequence of 2, 3, 4, rare (very rare) events of one day. Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Evolution of percentiles : Cold season 35.000 Percentile Kenitra Froide 30.000 25.000 99% 95% 20.000 15.000 MoyTmax MoyT MoyTmin Lineare (99%) Lineare (95%) 10.000 5.000 51 55 56 60 61 65 66 70 71 75 76 80 81 85 86 90 91 95 96 00.01 05
Evolution of 1 day rare extreme events : cold season Evt rares 1j Kasba Tadla - Froide 65 45 Evt rares 1j Marrakech - Froide 60 43 55 41 50 39 37 45 Evt rares 1j 40 35 33 Evt rares 1j Lineare (Evt rares 1j) 35 31 30 29 27 1941-1945 1946-1950 1951-1955 1956-1960 1961-1965 1965-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 25 25 20 83-87 88-92 93-97 98-02.03-07
Evolution of 1 day rare extreme events : Hot season Evt rares 1j kenitra - Chaude Evt rares 1j Marrakech - Chaude 43 34.5 41 34 39 33.5 33 37 32.5 35 33 32 Evt rares 1j Lineare (Evt rares 1j) 31.5 Evt rares 1j Lineare (Evt rares 1j) 31 31 29 30.5 27 30 25 29.5 1941-1945 1946-1950 1951-1955 1956-1960 1961-1965 1965-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010
Evolution of 1 day very rare extreme events : cold season 15 13 11 Evt Trares 1j Kenitra - froide 9.5 9 8.5 8 Evt Trares 1j Safi - Froide 9 7 5 Evt Trares 1j 7.5 7 6.5 6 Evt Trares 1j 3 5.5 5 Evt Trares 1j Kasba Tadla - Froide 12 Evt Trares 1j Marrakech - Froide 10 8.5 8 8 7.5 6 4 Evt Trares 1j 7 6.5 6 Evt Trares 1j 2 5.5 5 0 83-87 88-92 93-97 98-02.03-07
Evolution of 1 day very rare extreme events : Hot season 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Evt Trares 1j Kenitra - Chaude Evt Trares 1j Safi - Chaude 8.5 8 7.5 7 Evt Trares 1j 6.5 Lineare (Evt Trares 1j) 6 5.5 5 Evt Trares 1j Evt Trares 1j Kasba Tadla - Chaude 9.5 Evt Trares 1j Marrakech - Chaude 6.5 9 6 8.5 5.5 8 5 4.5 Evt Trares 1j 7.5 7 Evt Trares 1j 4 6.5 3.5 6 3 83-87 88-92 93-97 98-02.03-07
Results Extreme events Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Kenitra 1day rare extreme event Cold Warm 1day very rare extreme event Cold Warm Safi Kasba Tadla Marrakech Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Evolution of more than 1 day rare extreme events : cold season 3.5 Evt rares > 1j Kasba Tadla - Froide 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Evt rares 2j Evt rares 3j Evt rares 4j Evt rares 5j Evt rares 6j Evt rares 7j Evt rares 8j Evt rares 9j Evt rares 12j 0.5 0 83-87 88-92 93-97 98-02.03-07
Evolution of more than 1day rare extreme events : Hot season 12 Evt rares > 1j Kenitra - Chaude 10 8 6 Evt rares 2j Evt rares 3j Evt rares 4j Evt rares 5j 4 2 0 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00.01-05
Evolution of more than 1 day very rare extreme events : cold season 1.2 Evt Trares > 1j Kasba Tadla - Froide 1 0.8 0.6 Evt Trares 2j Evt Trares 3j Evt Trares 4j 0.4 0.2 0 83-87 88-92 93-97 98-02.03-07
Evolution of more than 1 day very rare extreme events : Hot season 6 Evt Trares > 1j kenitra - Chaude 5 4 3 Evt Trares 2j Evt Trares 3j Evt Trares 4j 2 1 0 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00.01-05
Results Extreme events More than 1 day rare events evolution: Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types - Decrease of 2 Days extreme events in both seasons - Increase of 3 & 4 Days extreme events in both seasons - Apparition of longer rare events: 11D (Safi) & 12D (Kasba Tadla) Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Results Extreme events Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types The study of seasonal events of maximal temperature using percentile calculation during each year between 2005 and 2010. The percentiles used are: the 95th and the 99th. Rare extreme events Very rare extreme events 95 th Days Tmax < 99 th 99 th Days Tmax A rare (very rare) extreme event of 2, 3, 4, days is a sequence of 2, 3, 4, rare (very rare) events of one day. Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Results Weather types Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types 16 weather types in Morocco Summer Circulation Winter Circulation Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
Results Weather types Summer Circulation Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Regime of East : Chergui Mauritania nslow perturbatio n Summer Circulation and close periodes Ridge axis on Morocco Cosenza 15 17/09/2011 Moroccan quasistationary front Cold tails front regimes
Winter Circulation Weather types Cyclogenesis in the East of Balears Disturbed weather of SW Disturbed weather of NW SO disturbance Disturbed weather of North NO disturbance Winter Circulation Disturbed weather of NE Cyclogenesis on Spain SO : North disturbance Continental, polar air discharge dry and subsiding Accelerated Ouest Disturbance Narrow Trough from N or NE
Results Weather types Temperature evolution Extreme events Weather types Weather type Disturbed weather of SW 5 Dorsal axis on Morocco 4 Moroccan quasi-stationary 4 front East regime: chergui 3 Cold front tails regime 3 NW disturbance 3 Slow mauritanian dusturbance 2 Cyclogenisis on east Boreal 1 Frequency Frequency and weather types related to rare situations of maximum temperature in 2009 Cosenza 15 17/09/2011
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