Facing Climate Change in the LDCs : How to Implement the Istanbul Programme of Action

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1 fondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international 94 document de travail Pol itiques de développement May 2014* * revised version May 2014 Facing Climate Change in the LDCs : How to Implement the Istanbul Programme of Action Patrick Guillaumont Catherine Simonet Patrick GUILLAUMONT is the President of the Ferdi. He is also Professor Emeritus at the University of Auvergne. Catherine SIMONET is an Researcher at the Joint Research Center, in Ispra. She holds a Phd in international development from the Cerdi in Clermont-Ferrand. Executive Summary The climate change issue is briefly considered in the chapter 4 Priority areas for actions, section F «Multiple crises and other emerging challenges» of the Istanbul Declaration. In this section, climate change is examined with environmental sustainability and besides economic shocks and disaster risk reduction. The monitoring of this section about climate change is fairly complex, since the related actions to be taken do not refer to monitoring indicators, measurable and observable. In order to monitor these actions we propose to first identify through an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change the level and type of vulnerability to climate change of the LDCs. Then, we evaluate two types of actions recommended by the IPoA: establishment of NAPAs and the LDC Fund orientation. The first part of the paper evidences the high level of vulnerability of the LDCs and heterogeneous profiles of vulnerability to climate change among them. The second part is an assessment of the actions recommended by the IPoA for the adaptation to climate change considering the need of the countries as identified by the index. The substance of this chapter have been presented at the LDC IV Monitor Expert group meetings in Dhaka (September 2012) and Dar EGM, Dar Es Salaam (February 2013) and London (June 2013), where authors benefited from useful comments supplemented by relevant remarks of external referees: Y. Sokona, South Center, Nina Becker and Tom Mitchell, ODI. All are acknowledged, without been responsible for any opinion expressed or possible errors in the present paper. LA FERDI EST UNE FONDATION RECONNUE D UTILITÉ PUBLIQUE. ELLE MET EN ŒUVRE AVEC L IDDRI L INITIATIVE POUR LE DÉVELOPPEMENT ET LA GOUVERNANCE MONDIALE (IDGM). ELLE COORDONNE LE LABEX IDGM+ QUI L ASSOCIE AU CERDI ET À L IDDRI. CETTE PUBLICATION A BÉNÉFICIÉ D UNE AIDE DE L ÉTAT FRANCAIS GÉRÉE PAR L ANR AU TITRE DU PROGRAMME «INVESTISSEMENTS D AVENIR» PORTANT LA RÉFÉRENCE «ANR-10-LABX-14-01».

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8 8 PVCCI by quintile 23,4-32,3 32, ,4 40,4-56,9 56,9 61,3

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12 EVI EVI2012_ KIR KIR GMB GMB LBR GNB TUV SLB LBR GNB BDI TMP TUV SLB WSM LSO HTI VUT GNQ TCD MWI KHM DJI MRT MOZ AGO COMSOM SLE RWA BDI ZMB TMP MDV WSM LSO GNQ HTI VUT TCD MWI DJI MRT MOZ COM AGO SOM STP RWA SLE ZMB LAO CAF ETH NPL UGA ZAR BGD YEM TGO GIN NER MDG BENMLI PVCCI quadratic AFG BFA SEN CAF ETH ZAR UGA TGO GIN NER MDG PVCCI quadratic BEN MLI BFA SEN

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14 COASTAL ZONES 0,83% 0,81% 0,41% 16,06% 6,71% 6,71% 13,82% 8,54% 6,91% 7,72% 8,33% 3,46% 20,53% CROSS SECTOR EARLY WARNING SYSTEM EDUCATION_ CAPACITY BUILDING ENERGY FOOD SECURITY HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE INSURANCE TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS 4,23% 6,53% 7,81% 4,69% 2,08% 4,46% 2,95% 3,51% 9,57% 8,11% 45,23% 14

15 number of project by country on average Cost of project by country on average 0 East Asia and Pacific Latin America and Caribbean Middle East South Asia Sub-Sahara 15

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17 LDCFund BTN MWI ETH STP GMB SLE LAO BGD KHM RWA NER BEN ZMB SLB WSM LSO HTI GIN BFA NPL LBR TGO MOZ YEM MLI TMP AFG SEN UGA GNB MRT COM CAF ZAR BDI KIR VUT DJI MDV TUV TCD AGO SOM MDG PVCCI quadratic 17

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27 Sur quoi la fondera-t-il l économie du monde qu il veut gouverner? Sera-ce sur le caprice de chaque particulier? Quelle confusion! Sera-ce sur la justice? Il l ignore. Pascal Créée en 2003, la Fondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international vise à favoriser la compréhension du développement économique international et des politiques qui l influencent. Contact contact@ferdi.fr +33 (0)