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, 8;<<= K <, E=, C ;*, ;*' A.D&?'DHD/KL M @.@/N* 4L ",, N("DDJJ$?'JJ% *, F, EC,81 1 8;<, O+&H45 C00> > >@@)0E0I I 0+&H0 4
#+%1!)!>;0"#'*()*+!#?%!1 )'*#$"%&!,, P ; DH D&@(Q,, R E,, D&' DH@ @;6#5 0;A2;<BC Code Nom Superficie (1000 km2) Pop. 1976 (1000 h.) Pop. 1987 (1000 h) 1 Adamaoua 62.1 323.2 491.0 2 Centre 68.8 1098.7 1655.5 3 Est 108.9 342.9 516.7 4 Extrême-Nord 32.3 1305.3 1880.9 5 Littoral 20.2 841.5 1351.8 6 Nord 67.9 461.3 863.1 7 Nord-Ouest 17.3 914.9 1237.8 8 Ouest 13.9 968.9 1331.2 9 Sud 47.2 294.9 377.2 10 Sud-Ouest 24.9 580.4 840.9 Total CAMEROUN 463.5 7132.0 10546.1 5
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@6$*!&&0"'1 *!%#"?!"+,*,'G*)*', E*;,,, ";*, C @;6"?D 2 @S*($6 C <;)) ;,, ;G, ;)),, E)#, @< ; #, @ < E, ))., /@ @6"?D @8 )+%$$'6 C,, E ;. / @ ;,, ), ;, ;@ @E6"?D @)8-,')'!#6CA, ;)* ;),. /@ <, F;, * @ 12
#+%1!)!>F0")'+*-(+)-T $+!#1!)"(+%' +1 ('!#')1 +#U"*'"$"%& Hypothèse 1. Les échanges entre deux lieux sont proportionnels à leurs capacités d'émission et de réception 1000 100 10 0 Capacités des lieux à générer ou attirer des flux Flux Hypothèse 2. L'importance des échanges entre deux lieux diminue lorsque la distance augmente km Distance km Hypothèse 3. Deux lieux appartenant à la même entité territoriale ont des flux plus importants que deux lieux séparés par une frontière Frontière 13
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
$C* )*, DHD @361 +#";0$$)#(*)#?1 **+!)#'()*+! - 70 ",, ; 1 +#";0$4J O8(8(4OJ ΣΣ4$4IΣΣ4((4 4 2 0 <.U/, =;, E),,, )*,, ;, E@ ;*, C ΣΣG- GTH++HH., E, / ΣΣGGT$@*% J., E; E))/ OJE8B=D; 9; 0,, =P)P=, @ ;=*,, N Q, ', =',, N Q,.)/ ',, (.)/@,, ;E;), GC@ N : N NX N5 N ( (5 X - * E $%D& D$ +%$? $J % D+ +D? $HJ $H$ $HH -* &$& D %& HJJ && D+D JJJ +J+ D 8 J% %+ D?H +%% '+J 'D+'?JJ '&% '%& $ 15
<(X <? 5D@$4I((46@X ;C? 5DA5 @ $;0' 5D./L,.E/L E', Intensité des flux : Fij/(PiPj) 2.0E-09 1.5E-09 1.0E-09 5.0E-10 0.0E+00 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Distance en km (Dij) Intensité des flux : Fij/(PiPj) 1.0E-08 1.0E-09 1.0E-10 1.0E-11 10 100 1000 Distance en km (Dij) X,? 5D 5 9 @,, G, E7/9 2 ;* ;., G, E=, ', * /@ @61 +#"0$$)#"#*)!@*!)')*+!()*"6-70 A F;,, @<;,, ) ))C Y- G0.G/ZT@.G/2E.;= E', / - G0GT* Y@.G/2EZ -GT*.E/@@G@.G/., =[/ 1 +#"0$4JO8(8(48@#46 9α OJΣΣ4$4IΣΣ4K(8(48 @#46 9α L 4 2 0 XTY-G0.G/Z\T.G/ X))T'@+\'J@D. $ T?]/ X;(X<$C$4JE8E=8; 9C 8(8(48#4 9;8E; 16
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
AE?C!",,, 8 (E! N '?DJ JD$+ ++$H &? N J?H +&D J&$& NX $HJJ $&$J?J&H '$$% N5 $&D$ $$$ +D? 'J% N '& 'H 'H& '? ( '$?D& '+?D '&H 'DD? (5 'JD+ '+?& '?%% '$%$+ X '+J+ '$$%H '?&$% $%? 'H? '$&+ '+J 'H $D+ '?D &+ '$$ $D <;")*,, 5 @ 56 55 /7@ 568 )) )) '/ - G A A!G - G DH% H& $%&? &HD A?D$&?&H &$+ % J?D A D%& &?JH$ H++HH A H++HH - SG A A!G - SG HDJ +& $D???%&? A +& JH$ &J++ % $&+$+ A $D?? &J++ H++HH -G0-S G A H++HH A A!G - G0- S G @+& %@&& %@DJ @$ A %@J? @H @%$ % %@?? A %@H$ @% @%% A @%% 18
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#+%1!)!>C0""+*#'*"")G '*!) @6 $2 ' 8"5? *GF.( G /,. G /G@ Loi de Reilly (version initiale) : A ij = M j 2 D ij!c< E;!'.%, ; E?%U, /<., ; E?%U, /^!!'_ T%%%%%%%0.?%/ $ T===!!'_< T%%%%%%0.?%/ $ T= X;!)<@ 8 ", ;),?/+ ;)*EFE( ( E C D ab M a D Oa 2 = M b D Ob 2 D Oa = M 1+ b M a C./<.E/$%%U,, ;E;)F$%%0.2 %@/T;FO2@X,, E ) ; <C Attraction en hab./km2 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 50 100 150 200 Att. Paris.E/ (27 ' Att. Lille X;,, ;* 8 "Q ";;); @, ;)).* F $/ ;)),.* )F$/@;`), C Loi de Reilly (version ultérieure) : A ij = A ij = M j α avec α compris entre 0 et D ij 20
./ '@27-556 =, 8 ",,,,, ), @ a F, ;)F V 2 5@-%$$ ;,, * 52 // 8 ",,,, )) ;@<E=, 7 ))), C "/72-55, EU@@G@@U, ( @@( G :( U,, F @@ G : U @ 3 EE G,, )G^,, G,, ; ), 8"C+ 4 J1 4 I@# 4 6 α <,, F,, C( JΣ O + O < EE F ;,, C 4 J+4IΣ O + O D2? 3 EAU@ 3 ;)^ ) <,,., $/ \ )55 %%%%% $@? $@? W?%%%% J@? &@? #/ $%%%% $@? $@? ) $%%%% $@? H@? <;7 )), FR *.`, /R;)).`EEE, ;* /@ 21
#+%1!)!>B0"(+)!)*"#(+(%")*+!#)Q ') ;, E=, >, ; 8"@!,, ).2?55/ F,, ),,.2 2/@ D20X )!N@X;;", E F), @3 ^ ( 5,! N! N Y%V%Y +%%% %%% +%%% %%% Y%V$%Y +%%% $%%% &%%% +%%% Y$%V+%Y %%% J%%% %%% %%% Y+%VJ%Y +%%% %%% %%%% H%%% AE=, *, F) C!", ; E, ;N" ; E, @ E, E, * ;!);N@ ;,, E = ; P)@X, ;)),, C n P j D ij Première formule du potentiel de population : Pot i = j=1 D2 X, FY%V%YT?VY%V$%YT?V@C!T.+%%%0?/2.+%%%0?/2.%%%0$?/2.+%%%0+?/T<F8C NT.%%%0?/2.$%%%0?/2.J%%%0$?/2.%%%0+?/TBC8 ; " = > A 2D? " )@ 22
A)" 0G;), > C n Formule générale du potentiel : Pot i = P j. f(d ij ) j=1 ))."* @/ D2?,, ', F ), ))@ Map. 5.1 POPULATION POTENTIAL IN 1990 (calculated with gaussian neighboorhood / span 100 km) 70 N millions of inhabitants 25 60 N 20 15 50 N 10 5 40 N 30 N 20 W 10 W 0 10 E 20 E 30 E 40 E (c) C. Grasland, CNRS-Equipe P.A.R.I.S. (1998) 0 km 500 km 1000 km 23
Map. 5.2 POPULATION POTENTIAL IN 1990 (calculated with gaussian neighboorhood / span 250 km) 70 N millions of inhabitants 60 60 N 50 40 50 N 30 20 40 N 10 30 N 20 W 10 W 0 10 E 20 E 30 E 40 E (c) C. Grasland, CNRS-Equipe P.A.R.I.S. (1998) 0 km 500 km 1000 km C C00> > >@@@)000> 0*@,./ 24
>;0?2 5D "D22 2 2A <,, DH,. DH/, @ X,, G)),,,,, DH@, F, ()./, )) " DH,,, @,, F 3 8, 8;<<= (,, b O@%D'$D@ ;8A22 A./ *, R " =,, DH, E, ".AE-$ +/@.E/, R, =.U/*,, ",, E, @!, =^ 1 7;0$ 4 JO8(./ (R, =, W,, E, @3 ), =U^ 1 70$ 4 JO8+ 8 5D2 A./, RAE, *, @ *;0*;@46J $4I( *0*@46J $4I+.E/ 3 ), ^3 Q, = $)^ 25
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$;0' 2 2;<BC 2/ 2 2A 50000 Volume de migration vers Yaoundé 40000 30000 20000 10000 0( ;<BC 0 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 Population en 1987 E0!2/2 A 29
$0' 2 2 2A Y./=, 60% probabilité de migration vers Yaoundé 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 200 400 600 800 1000.E/=E', Distance à Yaoundé (en km) 100% probabilité de m igration ve rs Yaoundé 10% 1% 10 100 1000 Dis tance à Yaoundé (e n k m ) 30
=0(// 2 A 31
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36
>E05A )Y'*"" ;8"A ;/ = n Nom X Y Pop n Nom X Y Pop 1 Tunis 913 2515 2072375 41 JERBA AJIM 1061 1355 24166 2 SFAX 1067 1745 475649 42 GHANNOUCH 840 1443 22681 3 MONASTIR* 1090 2125 455590 43 MJEZ EL BAB 728 2479 20308 4 GRD SOUSSE* 1039 2158 395088 44 NAFTA 127 1442 20308 5 KAIROUAN 846 2098 117903 45 SBITLA 561 1945 20253 6 GABES 850 1425 116323 46 TAKELSA 1060 2542 20169 7 BIZERTE 813 2700 114371 47 BOU SELEM 542 2468 20098 8 GAFSA 452 1651 84676 48 ECH CHEBBA 1184 1928 19883 9 KASSERINE 459 1938 76243 49 GHAR ED DIMA 374 2407 19688 10 ZARZIS 1156 1257 70895 50 EL FAHS 811 2367 19315 11 JERBA 1081 1412 64919 51 GROMBALIA 1002 2444 18856 12 HAMMAMET 1032 2369 63116 52 KEBELLI 514 1352 18693 13 MEDENINE 972 1223 61705 53 MENZEL JMIL 834 2690 18344 14 TATAOUINE 949 1052 59346 54 EL JEM 1054 1952 18302 15 BEN GUERDENE 1195 1128 58101 55 SOUK EL AHAD 446 1401 18285 16 BEJA 613 2501 56677 56 TAJROUINE 392 2195 18185 17 NABEUL 1073 2385 56387 57 TINJA 779 2665 17454 18 JERBA MIDOUN 1121 1379 50459 58 BENI KHIAR 1092 2394 16992 19 MENZEL BOUR. 790 2662 47742 59 MENZEL ABDER. 826 2689 16824 20 MAHDIA 1163 2025 45977 60 EL ALIA 867 2666 16819 21 EL KEF 450 2296 45191 61 ZAGHOUAN 905 2381 16037 22 JENDOUBA 452 2406 43997 62 MENZEL BOUZEL. 1037 2481 15670 23 KELIBIA 1181 2537 43209 63 TABARKA 479 2600 15634 24 SIDI BOUZID 677 1880 39915 64 EL MAHRES 974 1664 14499 25 EL METLAOUI 318 1606 37099 65 KERKENA 1198 1731 14400 26 DAR CHAABANE 1082 2392 35859 66 CHNENNI EN NAH. 837 1425 14152 27 EL HAMMA 755 1426 34835 67 ED DAHMANI 481 2212 14061 28 KORBA 1112 2439 34807 68 TALA 424 2082 13968 29 MENZEL TEMIME 1149 2511 34528 69 EL MEKNASSY 702 1698 13742 30 TOZEUR 248 1455 32400 70 EL GTAR 490 1607 13554 31 MATEUR 754 2619 31345 71 MAKTHAR 596 2172 12942 32 EL KSAR 457 1636 29617 72 TESTOUR 681 2433 12732 33 SOLIMAN 995 2486 29060 73 BENI KHALLED 1037 2458 12573 34 DOUZ 499 1273 27060 74 EL MDHILA 429 1588 12383 35 KSOUR ES SEF 1142 1995 26219 75 BOU ARADA 731 2357 12273 36 ER RDAYEF 233 1632 26143 76 ES SERIS 547 2257 11927 37 RAS EJ JEBEL 892 2687 25553 77 GHOMRASSEN 929 1123 11383 38 OUM EL ARAIES 279 1675 24487 78 EJ JRISSA 411 2175 11298 39 SILIANA 660 2248 24243 79 TEBOURSOUK 617 2407 10987 40 FERIANA 378 1836 24198 80 MARETH 902 1317 10923 81 BOU ARGOUB 1022 2419 10311 S *, Q E : 37
8" A = C45 A, ( N8 E.L '/ 38
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