Tarik EL HAIRECH & Riad BALAGHI Direction de la Météorologie Nationale Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique

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1 Tarik EL HAIRECH & Riad BALAGHI Direction de la Météorologie Nationale Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique

2 Context: Food Insecurity, Climate and risks, Water and Soil limitations, Cereal price volatility in international markets < 30 PORTUGAL SPAIN 30 < < < < < <500 TANGER TETOUAN LARACHE CHEFCHAOUEN NADOR AL HOCEIMA SIDI KACEM TAOUNATE KENITRA TAZA OUJDA MEKNES RABAT FES CASABLANCA KHEMISSETEL HAJEB BEN SLIMANE IFRANE BOULMANE SETTATKHOURIBGA KHENIFRA EL KELAA SRAGHNABENI MELLAL EL JADIDA FIGUIG AZILAL SAFI MOROCCO ESSAOUIRA MARRAKECH CHICHAOUA ERRACHIDIA OUARZAZATE TAROUDANTE AGADIR TIZNIT TATA GUELMIM TAN-TAN ASSA-ZAG ALGERIA LAAYOUNE ESSEMARA BOUJDOUR OUAD EDDAHAB MAURITANIA MALI Production moyenne des céréales au Maroc par province (x1000 tons) (Données de 1990 à 2010; Balaghi et al., 2012; Source de données: DSS). 2

3 Operational prediction of Cereal yields in Morocco: Main objective Objective : To improve the Food Security by: Strengthening climate governance; Defining the way in time and the means of intervention; Approaching the international market in the best conditions. 3

4 The art of crop yield forecasting Methodologies: Empirical Crop growth simulation and modeling Non-parametric Prerequisites: Long term Historical database : Agricultural statistics, climate, agronomic and satellite data; Weather and satellite Data in real time; Expertise in Meteorology and Agronomy; Expertise in GIS, satellite image processing, Statistical analysis, etc.; Local knowledge; Strong inter-institutional commitment.

5 Some agrometeorological information systems in the world tins-publications

6 CGMS from Overview

7 CGMS-MOROCCO real-time operational forecasting system in formal Consortium with INRA and DSS (the E-AGRI FP7 project) ; Operational implementation of the first national system of agrometeorological crop monitoring and prediction of grain production; Real-time monitoring of cereals growth in Morocco by feeding CGMS-MOROCCO Website ( DMN Acquisition and provision of weather data and hosting of CGMS-MAROC ; Interpolation of weather data, collected from synoptic weather stations. INRA Coordination of the project; Development of crop models. DSS Crop surveys ; End user and legal responsibility of agricultural statistics.

8 CGMS-MOROCCO :IT Infrastructure NRT Processing and feeding the web wiewer Weather data integration and calculation, Climate data interpolation, WOFOST simulation, Agregation and CST CGMS-MA oracle 11 g R2 Server

9 CGMS-MOROCCO : INPUTS LEVEL 1 RT and HISTORIC DAILY RAW MET DATA FROM DMN NETWORK ( 43 stations) RT and HISTORIC DAILY RADIATION and PET CALCULATIONS REGULAR INTERPOLATION GRID OF ABOUT 9 KM COVERING ALL MOROCCO LEVEL 2 FINE SCALE SOIL MAP FROM INRA FINE LAND COVER MAP (from SPOT 2.5 m) CALIBRATED CROP PARAMETERS FOR SOFT AND DURUM WHEAT WATER BALANCE INITIALIZATION STRATEGY FOR WOFOST SIMULATIONS LEVEL 3 4 NUTS LEVEL: DISTIRICT, PROVINCE, AEZ AND NATIONAL YIELD AND AREA STATISTICS FROM DSS SPOT/MODIS NDVI AND MDP FROM 1998/2000 UP TO LAST DEKAD

10 RT interpolated daily grid of climate variables at ~9km (Available from 01/01/1987 today) TMIN TMAX RR24 ETP RAD Ex: Grid for 09/02/2014

11 Level Decadal grid of WOFOST outputs from 01/09/1988 up to last dekad for monitoring SW, DW and Barley WLB WREQ DVS WLSO WCON WLAI WOFOST 31/03/2013 ( SW)

12 Level Une grille décadaire d indicateurs par télédétection pour le suivi de l état de la végétation

13 LEVEL Spatiotemporal aggregation Climate grid/soil map units/crop mask/administrative levels Spatial aggregation, using crop mask ; Spatial synthesis from grids level to : district / province / AEZ / nationwide ; Time-based synthesis : Dekad, month or defined time period (ex: from sowing up to date).

14 LEVEL Agrometeorological Cereal monitoring

15 LEVEL Linear regression and similarity analysis for cereal yields and productions forecasting

16 LEVEL crop monitoring and forecasting bulletins published jointely in April 2012 and 2013

17 Evaluation of CGMS Morocco: Forecasting performance at national level CGMS-MAROC has been tested for two cropping seasons, and Forecasted cereals yields were very close to final official yields Cereal production was calculated using forecasted yields and official cereal area delivered by the Ministry of agriculture. Cereal (soft wheat, durum wheat and barley) production was estimated at 4.72 million tons, at April 10th 2012, against 5.07 million tons from official statistics. During , Cereal production was estimated at 8.83 million tons, at April 6th 2013, while the official statistics are still not available up to date.

18 Evaluation of CGMS Morocco: Socio-economic impact Crop monitoring and forecasting is an essential component of the climate risk management in agriculture; CGMS-MAROC allows to instantly forecast grain yields two to three months before harvest. Forecasting the production of crops early before harvest allows decision makers to be prepared in advance for eventual consequences of abnormal deviations of the climate, particularly for strategic commodity crops to food security like cereals. Currently the Moroccan ministry of agriculture has not yet carried out a quantitative socio-economic evaluation regarding cost-savings made by the CGMS-MAROC system that was implemented in e-agri. Nevertheless, given the dependency of Moroccan agriculture on cereal imports (as outlined above), the potential savings from strategic commodity trading can be substantial.

19 CGMS MOROCCO: Outlook and further development CGMS-MAROC can be improved and used in agricultural early warning, by incorporating modules for forecasting short-term weather events (rain, drought, heat waves and cold) and biotic hazards (diseases, insects) and the choice of sowing date. CGMS-MAROC cereal yield predictions can be produced earlier by incorporating modules for climate seasonal forecasting especially for rainfall CGMS-MAROC can be adapted for forecasting cereal yields in countries with similar climate to that of Morocco, such as the Mediterranean countries. CGMS-MAROC the system can also be adapted to other purposes, through additional improvements, like drought insurance, mapping potential of land and land use and impact of climate change on agricultural productivity.

20 THANKS MERCI شكرا