Pellet Markets and Canadian Pellet Industry Update

Transcription

1 Pellet Markets and Canadian Pellet Industry Update John Arsenault, Manager Wood Pellets Bureau de promotion des produits du bois du Québec Quebec Wood Export Bureau (QWEB) Director Market access and promotion, WPAC

2 Global pellet consumption Global market forecast Canadian exports World regional production and consumption European market analysis Asian market analysis Canadian pellet consumption New SBP sustainability certification Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 2

3 30,0 25,0 Millions of Tonnes 22,4 23,6 25,5 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 18,3 14,5 15,7 9,7 11,7 7,6 5,2 4,0 1,7 2,2 2, (F) Sources: Hawkins Wright, REN 21 Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 3

4 Global Pellet Demand (Pöyry central scenario) Million tonnes Europe North America South America China Russia Japan & South Korea other 2010 Source: Silvio Mergner, Poyry Source: Pöyry Analysis Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 4

5 Global Totals: 2012: 1,369,000 tonnes 2013: 1,640,347 tonnes BC: 85-90% of Canadian exports Source: World Trade Atlas 0 United Kingdom Italy United States Korea South Japan Germany Denmark Switzerlan d Netherlan ds Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada Belgium Singapore 5

6 Top European Producers: Germany Sweden Latvia Portugal Rest of World; 0,6 Rest of Asia; 1,0China; 2,0 Russia; 2,0 Europe (EU 27); 12,0 US & Canada; 6,0 Millions of Tonnes Sources: REN21 Global Status Report 2014, Argus Media Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 6

7 North America; 4,0 Asia; 1,0 Millions of Tonnes Europe - Industrial; 9,0 Europe - Domestic Heat; 10,0 Sources: Argus Media, Ekman Europe continues to dominate Europe s heat sector exceeds industrial sector Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 7

8 Source: Gilles Gauthier, European Pellet Council Totals: 9 mn industrial, 10 mn domestic heat PL FR AT NL BE DK SE DE IT UK Heat Power Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 8

9 Total non-eu imports: 6.1 mn tonnes Other; 127 Russia; 701 Bosnia- Herzogovina; 170 Ukraine; 164 Croatia; 146 Belarus; 116 USA; Canada; Source: Crosstrade (German Timber Network) Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 9

10 UK Drax Power, MW units each 2.4 mn tonnes of pellets. 2 units completed, 3 rd planned for th unit under study. UK Lynemouth Power, 420 MW, received FID contract, 1.5 mn tonnes pellets. Belgium EON Langerlo, 500 MW, 1.6 mn tonnes, construction 2015 Netherlands 25 PJ, 3.5 mn tonnes, 2014 Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 10

11 Source: Gilles Gauthier, European Pellet Council Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 11

12 Source: Gilles Gauthier, European Pellet Council 40% of all heating pellets are now ENplus certified Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 12

13 Demand in Japan and Korea is growing Policy uncertainty is high. Asia-Pacific and Russian pellet producers have transportation advantage over NA. European utilities now trading to Korea Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 13

14 Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 14

15 Preference for local biomass chips Wood pellet production & imports still modest 2013 demand ~ 170,000 tonnes 65kt in heat sector; 110 kt in industrial sector Pellet imports will grow Source: Hawkins Wright, The Outlook for Wood Pellets, April 2014 Source: Trade Statistics of Japan, Ministry of Finance and Tradeviews Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 15

16 Thousand Tonnes Total: 485,000 tonnes Source: Hawkins Wright Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 16

17 Target now delayed five years Source: Jae Jung Huh, BC Investment Trade Office, Seoul Korea Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 17

18 Company Co-firing Station Quantity, t Delivery Time Scale KOMIPO Bonyeong 167,000 Up to end August 2014 KOSPO Hadong 285,000 Up to December 2016 EWP Dangjin 30,000 Up to end August 2014 KOWEPO Tae-an 210,000 Up to end December 2014 KOSEP Samcheonpo, Yeonheung, Yeosu 228,000 Up to end August 2014 TOTAL 920,000 Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 18

19 Japan Korea Source: Statistics Canada Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 19

20 T T T T T T T T T 0 T T 200 T T T T T T T 1. Calculated using data from Stats Canada & HPBA Canada ,500 tonnes for all of Canada annually Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 20

21 Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 21

22 Existing: Vancouver, Halifax, Belledune, Trois-Rivières, Montréal New: Quebec Stevedores tonnes Quebec City Westview Pellet Terminal tonnes (Phase 1) Prince Rupert BC Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 22

23 Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 23

24 Partners Participating Observers EIPS, USIPA, & WPAC Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 24

25 Pilot audits complete Full-scale audits begin in July 2014 Each generator decides how to implement with their pellet suppliers Dependent on existing long-term contracts Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 25

26 The general market outlook is positive Europe will continue to dominate with heat and power sectors growing at similar rates Asia is showing promise after a slow start North America will grow slowly Certifications (EnPlus/ SBP) will penetrate and help markets Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 26

27 3rd edition: February 18 & 19, 2015 The Queen Elizabeth Montréal Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 27

28 For more information: Contact John Arsenault (819) November Vancouver Marriott Pinnacle Hotel Vancouver BC Bureau de Promotion des Produits de Bois du Québec (QWEB) / Wood Pellet Association of Canada 28