Annexe note TDTE N 4 Annexes : Vieillissement et migration internationales L immigration, 1 une solution aux économies vieillissantes? Auteurs El Mouhoub Mouhoud, Université Paris Dauphine Lionel Ragot, Université de Paris Ouest Nanterre Hillel Rapoport, Université d Harvard Ces travaux ont bénéficié du soutien de la Caisse des Dépôts 18 janvier 2012 «Seul le prononcé fait foi et ce compte-rendu n engage pas les intervenants»
Figure 1.a Projections démographiques avec et sans immigration (EU27, source Eurostat) 2 Figure 1.b Accroissement naturel et solde migratoire (EU27, source Eurostat)
Tableau 1. Projections de la population française! 3
Figure 2.a. Taux d immigration en 2005 dans les régions d accueil (population immigrée / population totale des régions d accueil 4 Source : E.M. Mouhoud et J. Oudinet (2011) calculations from Ratha & Shawn s 2005 bilateral migration data, University of Sussex, World Bank.
Figure 2.b. nombre d immigrés présents en 2005 dans les régions selon leur origine intra ou extra régionale 5 Source : E.M. Mouhoud et J. Oudinet (2011) calculations from Ratha & Shawn s 2005 bilateral migration data, University of Sussex, World Bank.
Figure 3.a. Migration de type permanent par catégorie d'entrée, 2008 en pourcentage de la population des pays d accueil. Source : OCDE (2010), Perspectives des Migrations internationales 2010, Paris 2010. 6 Figure 3.b. Source : OCDE (2010), Perspectives des Migrations internationales 2010, Paris 2010.
Figure 4. Taux d émigration (population émigrée / population du pays de départ émigrants inclus) en 2005. 7 Source : E.M. Mouhoud et J. Oudinet (2011) calculations from Ratha & Shawn s 2005 bilateral migration data, University of Sussex, World Bank.
Figure 5.a Expatriation rate of high-skill labor force in 1980 (on population+expatriated people) 8
Figure 5.b Expatriation rate of high-skill labor force in 2000 (on population+expatriated people) 9 Source : Mouhoud and Oudinet (2011) from Defoort C.(2007) et Docquier F., et Marfouck (2007)
Tableau 2. Régimes régionaux d immigration 10 Source : Mouhoud et Oudinet (2011)
Figure 6.a. Effet d inertie du taux de migration net dans les grandes regions du monde classes par niveau de richesse pour approximer les effets de réseau dans la determination des flux de migration. Inertia Ratio 11 Other South Asia Other Africa India Other East Asia North Africa China South America Central America Former Soviet Union West Asia East Europe East Asia High income South Europe Japon West Europe UK Other Developped North europe USA 0,70 0,75 0,80 0,85 0,90 0,95 1,00 1,05 1,10 1,15 source : Mouhoud et Oudinet (2011) AUGUR Program.
Figure 6.b Aménités dans les grandes régions du monde appréhendées par les effets fixes et tendances estimées des taux de migrations nette (estimation en Annexe 3) 12 Fixed Effects Other South Asia Other Africa India Other East Asia North Africa China South America Central America Former Soviet Union West Asia East Europe East Asia High income South Europe Japon West Europe UK Other Developped North europe USA -6,0E-04-4,0E-04-2,0E-04 0,0E+00 2,0E-04 4,0E-04 6,0E-04 Source : Mouhoud et Oudinet (2011)
Figure 7. Structure par âge des prélèvements obligatoires et transferts en France (en euros, en 2006) 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0-5 000-10 000-15 000-20 000-25 000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Taxes-Natifs Transferts-Natifs TaxesNettes-Natifs Taxes immigrés Transferts immigrés Taxes nettes immigrés Sources : Chojnicki et al. (2010) Tableau 3. Besoin de financement de la protection sociale 13
Skilled Overall Skilled Overall Skilled Overall Religious Linguistic Ethnic Tableau 4. Taux d immigration et degrés de diversité dans une sélection de pays de l OCDE Fractionalization Birthplace Diversity Entire Population Immigrant Population Immigr ation Rate Country Australia 0.09 0.33 0.82 0.47 0.60 0.90 0.92 0.28 0.37 Canada 0.71 0.58 0.70 0.40 0.44 0.96 0.96 0.22 0.26 France 0.10 0.12 0.40 0.17 0.12 0.92 0.96 0.09 0.06 Israel 0.34 0.55 0.35 0.69 0.76 0.94 0.91 0.45 0.54 14 Italy 0.11 0.11 0.30 0.04 0.04 0.96 0.97 0.02 0.02 Spain 0.42 0.41 0.45 0.11 0.13 0.94 0.95 0.05 0.07 Switzerland 0.53 0.54 0.61 0.41 0.43 0.92 0.92 0.24 0.25 United Kingdom 0.12 0.05 0.69 0.17 0.28 0.96 0.96 0.09 0.15 USA 0.49 0.25 0.82 0.25 0.21 0.92 0.97 0.13 0.11 Sources: Alesina (2003) for ethnic fractionalization, Alesina, Harnoss and Rapoport (2011) for birthplace diversity, and Docquier et al. (2011) for immigration rates.
Tableau 5. Immigration rates 1990-2000 (ranked by total immigration rate), selected countries Country Total Immigration rates, from all countries College Educated Immigration rates: from all countries Total Immigration rates from non- OECD countries College Educated Immigration rates: from non-oecd 15 Israel 14.35% 60.19% 15.14% 47.03% Austria 9.35% 7.87% 3.42% 2.11% Ireland 7.60% 28.02% 1.65% 6.12% United States 5.71% 6.50% 3.40% 4.71% New Zealand 5.61% 7.61% 4.79% 8.11% Canada 5.21% 10.81% 5.59% 9.06% Australia 3.79% 13.70% 3.66% 6.82% Spain 3.32% 5.80% 2.02% 3.28% Sweden 2.66% 6.63% 2.59% 4.29% Germany 2.64% 3.91% 0.90% 1.65% Belgium 2.63% 5.68% 1.69% 2.40% Denmark 2.54% 2.95% 1.82% 1.57% Netherlands 2.39% 6.60% 1.77% 3.16% United Kingdom 2.13% 11.26% 1.64% 6.13% Finland 1.74% 2.34% 0.65% 0.70% Switzerland 1.61% 9.29% 2.63% 2.96% Portugal 1.55% 2.99% 1.23% 1.76% Italy 1.00% 1.08% 0.73% 0.57% France 0.81% 3.38% 1.01% 1.89% Japan 0.46% 0.78% 0.39% 0.54% Czech Republic 0.39% 5.35% 0.07% 1.02% Greece 0.24% 0.34% 0.19% 0.21% Korea 0.00% 0.15% 0.00% 0.11% Poland -1.14% -0.87% -0.77% -0.63% Source: Docquier, Ozden and Peri (2011) Tableau 6. Foreign-born in aggregate OECD countries OECD as receiving countries All Less than college educated college educated (Foreign-born/Total) in 2000 7.73% 6.95% 9.74% (non OECD- born)/total in 2000 3.78% 3.17% 5.38% (net inflow 1990-2000)/ Total 2000 2.41% 1.53% 5.46% (net inflow 1990-2000 from non-oecd)/ Total 2000 1.52% 0.93% 3.54% Source: Docquier, Ozden and Peri (2011)
Tableau 7. Share of OECD immigrants by destination region and education, 2000 Education level Destination All Primary Secondary Tertiary North America 0.514 0.352 0.540 0.655 Europe 0.384 0.560 0.349 0.236 All OECD 0.355 0.292 0.353 Figure 8. US legal immigrants by entry status 16 P E R S ONS OB T AINING GR E E N C AR D S : 2002-2006 Divers ity 5% O ther 4% R efugees and As ylees 12% Immediate relatives of U.S. citiz ens 44% E mployment-bas ed preferences 16% F amily-s pons ored preferences 19%
Figure 9. US legal immigration (Rosenzweig, 2008) 17