Climat, changements climatiques, et impacts

Transcription

1 Climat, changements climatiques, et impacts (Groupe C3i : Climatic change and climate impacts) Résumé Tandis que les signes de l influence humaine sur le climat deviennent de plus en plus évidents, la problématique aujourd hui n est plus de savoir si le climat se réchauffe, mais à quelle vitesse et de mesurer les impacts naturels, économiques et sociaux à l échelle régionale de changements aussi abrupts. Le Groupe C3i comprend aujourd hui 14 collaborateurs, dont 8 sont engagés sur des fonds de recherche externes. Outre le Professeur Martin Beniston, qui est également directeur de l ISE, le groupe comprend 4 MER, 3 Post-doc, et 6 doctorants. Les thèmes de recherches sur le changement climatique et ses impacts comprennent notamment : L estimation des tendances climatiques à l échelle européenne et alpine basés sur l observation La simulation mathématique d évènements extrêmes dans un climat plus chaud à l aide de modèles climatiques régionaux (développés en collaboration avec l Université du Québec à Montréal) L étude des impacts physiques et économiques des extrêmes climatiques sur le tourisme, les infrastructures et les forêts L étude des risques naturels face aux changements climatiques, en utilisant différentes techniques expérimentales et informatiques (collaboration avec Dendrolab, UNIBE) L étude des changements des ressources en eau dans des régions de montagne telles que les Alpes, les Andes, ou l Asie Centrale, ainsi que les conséquences de ces changements pour différents acteurs économiques (thèmes principaux du projet européen ACQWA coordonné à l ISE) L évaluation des impacts d un climat plus chaud sur la qualité de l eau dans les lacs suisses ; conséquences possibles pour la santé publique L analyse des changements de la gouvernance de l eau pour éviter des rivalités entre acteurs économiques confrontés à des changements dans la disponibilité de la ressource L analyse des risques glaciaires pour le stockage des déchets nucléaires, mandat avec la CEDRA (Coopérative pour l Entreposage des Déchets Radioactifs) L étude de la non-linéarité dans le système climatique, projet de recherche financé dans le cadre de CADMOS (Center for Advanced Modeling Science), utilisant les ordinateurs les plus puissants La consultation sur le plan fédéral et international en matière de science et de politique climatique

2 Projets de recherche depuis 2007 Nom du projet (+ Requérant(s)) Durée Montant, source et description ACQWA (Beniston) EMOCLIP (Beniston) ECA-EXTREMES (Beniston) CYANOCLIM (Beniston) ENSEMBLES RT8 (Griggs, GB + Beniston) NCCR-CLIMATE (Wanner, UNIBE + Beniston) HIGH NOON (Stoffel) GPCC India (Stoffel) IHCAP (Stoffel) NAGRA Glaciation (Cohen) CHF 11' Coordination de ce projet dans le 7 e programme-cadre de l UE sur les questions de l eau en régions de montagne CHF 95'000.- Fonds national suisse, initiative SCOPES pour la collaboration avec l Europe de l Est sur les questions de modélisation environnementale CHF 105'000.- Etablissement cantonal d assurances (VD), subside pour l étude des dégâts potentiels aux bâtiments liés à des tempêtes futures CHF 145'000.- Fonds national suisse, Division II, subside pour l étude de la qualité de l eau dans les lacs suisses, dans un climat plus chaud CHF 312'000.- Partenaire de ce projet du 6 e programme-cadre (PCRD) de l UE sur les questions de scénarios et d impacts climatiques CHF 825'000.- Fonds national Suisse, Division II, premier projet en réseau suisse sur les questions climatiques CHF 430'000.- Partenaire de ce projet du 7 e programme-cadre (PCRD) de l UE sur les questions de l eau en fonction du recul du glacier de l Himalaya CHF 60'000.- Financement d une pré-étude par la DDC (Berne) pour développer un réseau de recherche Suisse-Inde sur l impact climatique sur l eau dans l Himalaya CHF 2'400'000.- Indian Himalaya Climate Adaptation, financé par la DDC (Berne), soit le projet complet suite au préfinancement par GPCC-India CHF 300'000.- Financé par la NAGRA (CEDRA: Coopérative suisse pour l Entreposage des Déchets Radioactifs), évaluation des risques glaciaires sur certains sites potentiels de stockages de déchets

3 Réseaux de collaboration Dans le cadre de ses activités, le Groupe C3i collabore étroitement avec l Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), dont le modèle de climat que nous développons conjointement constitue l outil principal pour la recherche en simulations climatiques. En 2007, un accord formel de collaboration entre l UNIGE et l UQAM a été signé, permettant l échange de scientifiques et d étudiants entre les deux institutions partenaires. De leur côté, les projets européens coordonnés par l ISE se composent de nombreux partenaires à la fois européens et non européens. Parmi les partenaires avec lesquels le Groupe C3i a les liens les plus étroits, on peut citer : Grande-Bretagne : Universités d Exeter, de Reading, de Birmingham et de Dundee ; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Exeter France : Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris ; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement, Issy-les- Moulineaux ; Météo France, Toulouse ; Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Géophysique Environnementale, Grenoble Allemagne : Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hambourg Italie : International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste ; Universités de Turin et de l Aquila ; Politecnico di Milano Espagne : Universidad Complutense, Madrid ; Instituto Pyrenaico de Ecologia, Saragosse Chili : CEAZA (Centre d études des zones arides), La Serena et CECS (Centre de recherches environnementales), Valdivia Inde : Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi En Suisse, les principaux partenaires comprennent l ETH-Zurich, l Université de Berne, et l EPF-Lausanne. Services à la Cité La question climatique interpelle énormément les membres du public ainsi que le monde des décideurs politiques et économiques. Le groupe C3i est ainsi très sollicité par les médias ainsi que pour donner des conférences publiques ou ciblées par rapport aux autorités communales, cantonales ou fédérales. Depuis 5 ans, on peut relever les éléments suivants : Près de 100 interventions dans la presse écrite (romande, suisse, internationale) 60 interventions à la radio (RSR mais aussi radios locales et internationales telles que la BBC en Angleterre) 25 interventions à la TV (TSR mais aussi d autre chaînes, notamment françaises), ainsi qu un documentaire de 10 sur le projet ACQWA diffusé en 2010 sur EURONEWS Près de 75 conférences destinées au grand public 16 conférences ciblées pour diverses autorités suisses (y compris le président de la Confédération à l époque, Pascal Couchepin en décembre 2007) ou étrangères Divers Distinctions Martin Beniston Co-récipiendaire du Prix Nobel de la Paix en 2007 grâce à l attribution collective de ce prix aux membres actifs du GIEC Election à l Academia Europea (l Académie européenne des Sciences) Markus Stoffel Docteur honoris causa de l Université Babeş- Bolyai, à Cluj (Roumanie)

4 Editions scientifiques Martin Beniston Editeur-en-chef de Advances in Global Change Research (Springer Publishers, D+USA) Editeur-en-chef de Environmental Science and Policy (Elsevier Publishers, NL) Editeur-associé de Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier Publishers, NL) Editeur-associé de Regional Environmental Change (Springer Publishers, D+USA) Markus Stoffel Editeur-associé de Geomorphology (Elsevier Publishers, NL) Conférences De 1995 à 2008, organisation annuelle des conférences Wengen Workshops on Global Change Research, traitant des multiples aspects du changement global ( Depuis 2008, conférences ciblées dans le cadre du projet européen ACQWA, ainsi que les Assemblées Générales annuelles du projet ( Publications depuis 2007 Revues référées Arbellay, E., Fonti, P., STOFFEL, in press. Wound-induced variations in earlywood vessel features of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.). Journal of Experimental Botany. Arbellay, E., STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of past debris-flow activity using injured broad-leaved trees. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 35, Arbellay, E., STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Wood anatomical analysis of Alnus incana (L.) Moench and Betula pendula Roth injured by a debris flow. Tree Physiology 30 : Astrade, L., STOFFEL, M., Corona, C., Lopez Saez, J., in press. L'utilisation des cernes de croissance des arbres pour l'étude des événements et des changements morphologiques : intérêts, méthodes et apports des recherches alpines à la dendrogéomorphologie. Géomorphologie : Relief, Processus, Environnement. Ballesteros, J. A., Bodoque, J. M., Díez, A., Sánchez, M., STOFFEL, M., Calibration of floodplain roughness and estimation of palaeoflood discharge based on tree-ring evidence and hydraulic modeling. Journal of Hydrology 403 : Ballesteros, J. A., Eguibar, M., Bodoque, J. M., Díez, A., STOFFEL, M., Gutiérrez, I., Estimating flash flood discharge in an ungauged mountain catchment with 2D hydraulic models and dendrogeomorphic paleostage indicators. Hydrological Processes 25 : Ballesteros-Canovas, J. A., STOFFEL, M., Bodoque del Pozo, J. M., Bollschweiler, M., Hitz, O. M., Diez-Herrero, A., Changes in wood anatomy in tree rings of Pinus pinaster Ait. following wounding by flash floods. Tree-Ring Research 66 : Ballesteros-Canovas, J. A., STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Bodoque del Pozo, J. M., Díez-Herrero, A., Flash-flood impacts cause changes in wood anatomy of Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia and Quercus pyrenaica. Tree Physiology 30 : Banergee, A., Person, M., Hofstra, A., Sweetkind, D., COHEN, D., Sabin, A., Unruh, J., Zyvoloski, G., Gable, C. W., Crossey, L., Karlestrom, K., Deep permeable fault-controlled helium transport and limited mantle flux in two extensional geothermal systems in the Great Basin, United States, Geology, 39, 3, , doi: /g BENISTON, M., 2007 : Contibuting author to the IPCC Assessment Report 4, Working Group I Report, Chapter 11 : Regional Climate Projections (Lead Authors, Jens H. Christensen, Denmark, and Bruce Hewittson, South Africa). IPCC WG I Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp BENISTON, M., 2007 : Entering into the "greenhouse century" : recent record temperatures in Switzerland are comparable to the upper temperature quantiles in a greenhouse climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16710 BENISTON, M., 2007 : Linking extreme climate events and economic impacts : Examples from the Swiss Alps. Energy Policy, 35, BENISTON, M., 2007 : Contibuting author to the IPCC Assessment Report 4, Working Group II Report, Chapter 4 : Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods and Services (Lead Authors, Andreas Fischlin, Switzerland and Guy Midgley, South Africa). IPCC WG II Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp BENISTON, M., 2007 : Contibuting author to the IPCC Assessment Report 4, IPCC Working Group I Report, Chapter 3 : Observations ; Surface and Atmospheric Climatic Change (Lead Authors, Kenneth Trenberth, USA, and Phil Jones, UK). IPCC WG I Report Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp BENISTON, M., 2008 : Sustainability of the landscape of a UNESCO World Heritage Site in the Lake Geneva region (Switzerland) in a greenhouse climate. International Journal of Climatology. 28, BENISTON, M., 2009 : Decadal-scale changes in the tails of probability distribution functions of climate variables in Switzerland. International Journal of Climatology, 29, BENISTON, M., 2009 : Trends in joint quantiles of temperature and precipitation in Europe since 1901 and projected for Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L BENISTON, M., 2010 : Climate change and its impacts : growing stress factors for human societies. International Journal of the Red Cross, Cambridge University Press, 92, BENISTON, M., 2010 : Impacts of climatic change on water and associated economic activities in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Hydrology, doi: /j.jhydrol

5 BENISTON, M., and Goyette, S., 2007 : Changes in variability and persistence of climate in Switzerland ; exploring 20 th century observations and 21 st century simulations. Global and Planetary Change, 57, BENISTON, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhä, K., Koffi, B., Palutikoff, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K., 2007 : Future extreme events in European climate ; an exploration of Regional Climate Model projections. Climatic Change, 81, BENISTON, M., Stoffel, M., and Hill, M., 2011 : Impacts of climatic change on water and natural hazards in the Alps : can current water governance cope with future challenges? Examples from the European ACQWA project. Environmental Science and Policy, 14, BENISTON, M., Stoffel, M., Harding, R., Kernan, M., Ludwig, R., Moors, E., Samuels, P., Tockner, K., 2012 : Obstacles to data access for research related to climate and water : implications for science and EU policy-making. Environmental Science and Policy, accepted. BENISTON, M., Uhlmann, B., Goyette, S., and Lopez-Moreno, J. I., 2010 : Will snow abundant winters still exist in the Swiss Alps in an enhanced greenhouse climate? International Journal of Climatology, in press. Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Debris flows on forested cones reconstruction and comparison of frequencies in two catchments in Val Ferret, Switzerland. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 7 : Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Changes and trends in debris-flow frequency since 1850 results from eight torrents in the Zermatt valley. The Holocene 20 : Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Tree rings and debris flows - trends and challenges. Progress in Physical Geography 34 : Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Variations in debris-flow occurrence in an Alpine catchment a reconstruction based on tree rings. Global and Planetary Change 73 : Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Ehmisch, M., Monbaron, M., Reconstructing spatio-temporal patterns of debris-flow activity with dendrogeomorphological methods. Geomorphology 87(4) : Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Schlaeppy, R., Debris-flood reconstruction in a pre-alpine catchment in Switzerland based on treering analysis of conifers and broadleaved trees. Geografiska Annaler 93 : Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Schneuwly, D. M., Bourqui, K., Traumatic resin ducts in Larix decidua trees impacted by debris flows. Tree Physiology 28 : Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Schneuwly, D., Dynamics in debris-flow activity on a forested cone a case study using different dendroecological approaches. Catena 72(1) : Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Vázquez-Selem, L., Palacios, D., Spatio-temporal reconstruction of lahar activity in Barranca Huiloac (Volcán Popocatépetl, México). The Holocene 20, Byers, J., COHEN, D., Iverson N. R., in press. Subglacial clast-bed contact forces, J.Glaciol. COHEN, D., Lehmann, P., Or, D., Fiber bundle model for multiscale modeling of hydromechanical triggering of shallow landslides, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10436, doi: /2009wr COHEN, D., Person, M. A., Wang, P., Gable, C. W., Hutchinson, D., Marksamer, A., Dugan, B., Kooi, H., Groen, K., Lizarralde, D., Evans, R., Origin and extent of fresh paleowaters beneath the Atlantic Continental Shelf. Groundwater, 48, 1, doi: /j x, COHEN, D., Schwarz, M., Or, D., 2011, An analytical fiber bundle model for pullout mechanics of root bundles, J. Geophys. Res. 116, F03010, doi: /2010jf Corona, C., Lopez Saez, J., STOFFEL, M., Bonnefoy, M., Richard, D., Astrade, L., Berger, F., in press. How much of the real avalanche activity can be captured with tree rings? An evaluation of classic dendrogeomorphic approaches and comparison with historical archives. Cold Regions Science and Technology. Corona, C., Lopez, J., Rovéra, G., Astrade, L., STOFFEL, M., Berger, F., Quantification des vitesses d érosion au moyen de racines déchaussées : validation de la méthode dans les badlands marneux des bassins versants expérimentaux de Draix (Alpes de Haute- Provence). Géomorphologie : Relief, Processus, Environnement 11(1) : Corona, C., Lopez, J., Rovéra, G., STOFFEL, M., Astrade, L., Berger, F., High resolution, quantitative reconstruction of erosion rates based on anatomical changes in exposed roots (Draix, Alpes de Haute-Provence) critical review of existing approaches and independent quality control of results. Geomorphology 125 : Corona, C., Rovéra, G., Lopez, J., STOFFEL, M., Perfettini, P., Spatio-temporal reconstruction of snow avalanche activity using tree rings : Jean Jeanne avalanche talus, Massif de l'oisans, France. Catena 83 : DeFoor, W., Person, M., Larsen, H. C., Lizarralde, D., COHEN, D., Dugan, B., Ice sheet-derived submarine groundwater discharge on Greenland's continental shelf, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07549, doi: /2011wr Engler, R., Randin, C.F., Vittoz, P., Czáka, T., BENISTON, M., Zimmermann, N.E. and Guisan, A., 2009 : Predicting future distribution of mountain plants under climate change : does dispersal and landscape matter? Ecography, 32, Etienne, C., Lehmann, A., Lopez-Moreno, J.-I., Goyette, S., and BENISTON, M., 2010 : Spatial predictions of extreme wind speeds over Switzerland using Generalized Additive Models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climate, 49, Fazan, L., STOFFEL, M., Frey, D. J., Pirintsos, S., Kozlowski, G., in press. Small does not mean young : age estimation of severely browsed trees in anthropogenic Mediterranean landscapes. Biological Conservation. Gagliardini, O., COHEN, D., Raback, P., Zwinger, T., Finite-element modeling of subglacial cavities and related friction law. J. Geophys. Res., 112, F02027, doi: /2006jf Gallina, N., Anneville, O., and BENISTON, M., 2011 : Impacts of extreme air temperatures on cyanobacteria I five deep peri-alpine lakes. Journal of Limnology, in press. Giadrossich, F. M. Schwarz, COHEN, D., F. Preti, and D. Or, Soil-mediated mechanical interactions within root bundles during pullout tests, Plant Soil, (submitted : 01/2012). Giuliani G, Ray N, Schwarzer S, de Bono A, Dao H, Peduzzi P, BENISTON M., Van Woerden J, Witt R, and Lehmann A., Sharing environmental data through GEOSS. International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research, 2, GOYETTE, S., 2008 : Development of a model-based high resolution extreme surface wind climatology for Switzerland. Nat. Hazards, 44, doi: /s GOYETTE, S., 2011 : Synoptic conditions of extreme windstorms over Switzerland in a changing climate. Clim. Dyn., 36, , doi /s GOYETTE, S., H. Platteaux, and F. Jimenez, 2007 : Development of user-friendly didactic climate models for teaching and learning purposes. IPSI BGD Trans. Adv. Res., 3,

6 Graham, L. P., Hagemann, S., Jaun, S., and BENISTON, M., 2007 : On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Climatic Change, 81, Hooyer, T. S., D. COHEN, and N. R. Iverson, Control of subglacial quarrying by bedrock joints. Geomorphology. (submitted : 12/2011). Iverson, N. R., Hooyer, T. S., Fischer, U. H., COHEN, D., Moore, P. L., Jackson, M., Lappegard, G., Kohler, J., (2007. Soft-bed experiments beneath Engabreen, Norway : regelation infiltration, basal slip, and bed deformation. J. Glaciol., 53(182), Kogelnig-Mayer, B., STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Hübl, J., Rudolf-Miklau, F., in press. Possibilities and limitations of dendrogeomorphic time-series reconstructions on sites influenced by debris flows and frequent snow avalanche activity. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research. Lopez Saez, J., Corona, C., STOFFEL, M., Astrade, L., Berger, F., Malet, J.P., in press. Dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of past landslide reactivation with seasonal precision : the Bois Noir landslide, southeast French Alps. Landslides. doi: /s Lopez Saez, J., Corona, C., STOFFEL, M., Gotteland, A., Berger, F., Liebault, F., Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11 : Lopez Saez, J., Corona, C., STOFFEL, M., Schoeneich, P., Berger, F., Probability maps of landslide reactivation derived from tree-ring records : Pra Bellon landslide, southern French Alps. Geomorphology 138 : Lopez, J., Corona, C., STOFFEL, M., Rovéra, G., Astrade, L., Berger, F., Mapping of erosion rates in marly badlands based on a coupling of anatomical changes in exposed roots with slope maps derived from LiDAR data. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 36 : López-Moreno, J. I., and BENISTON, M., 2008 : Daily precipitation intensity projected for the 21st Century: Seasonal changes over the Pyrenees. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 95, Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Goyette, S., and BENISTON, M., 2009 : Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees : horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients. Journal of Hydrology, 374, López-Moreno, J.I., BENISTON, M., and García-Ruiz, J.M., 2008 : Environmental change and water management in the Pyrenees : facts and future perspectives. Global and Planetary Change, 61, López-Moreno, J.I., Goyette, S. and BENISTON M., 2008 : Climate change prediction over complex areas : spatial variability of uncertainties and expected changes over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology, 28, López-Moreno, J.I., Goyette, S., BENISTON, M., Alvera, B., 2008 : Sensitivity of the snow energy balance to climatic changes : implications for the evolution of snowpack in the Pyrenees in the 21st century. Climate Research, 36, Lopez-Moreno, J.-I., Goyette, S., Vicente-Serrano, S., and BENISTON, M., 2011 : Effects of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heavy snowfall events in the Pyrenees. Climatic Change, 105, López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano S.M., Morán-Tejeda E., Lorenzo J., Kenawy, A. and BENISTON, M., 2011 : NAO effects on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains : Observed relationships and projections for the 21 st century. Global and Planetary Change, in press. Lugon, R., STOFFEL, M., Rock-glacier dynamics and magnitude-frequency relations of debris flows in a high-elevation watershed : Ritigraben, Swiss Alps. Global and Planetary Change 73 : Lundström, T. Heiz, U., STOFFEL, M., Stöckli, V., Fresh-wood bending : linking the mechanic and growth properties of a Norway spruce stem. Tree Physiology 27 : Lundström, T., Jonsson, M. J., Volkwein, A., STOFFEL, M., Reactions and energy absorption of trees subject to rockfall : a detailed assessment using a new experimental method. Tree Physiology 29 : Lundström, T., STOFFEL, M., Stöckli, V., Fresh-stem bending of fir and spruce. Tree Physiology 28 : Maggini, R., Lehmann, A., Kery, M., Schmid, H., BENISTON, M., Jenni, L., and Zbinden, N., 2011 : Are Swiss birds tracking climate change? Detecting elevation shifts using response curve shapes. Ecological Modeling, 222, Marksamer, A. J., Person, M. A., Day-Lewis, F., Lane, J. W., COHEN, D., Dugan, B., Henk, K., Willett, M., Integrating geophysical, hydrochemical, and hydrologic data to understand the freshwater resources on Nantucket Island, Massachusetts, in Hydman, D. W., F. D. Day-Lewis, and K. Singha (eds.) Data Integration in Subsurface Hydrology, AGU Water Resources Monograph, doi:10.129/172gm12, 17 p. Mayer, B., STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Hübl, J., Rudolf-Miklau, F., Frequency and spread of debris floods on fans : A dendrogeomorphic case-study from a dolomite catchment in the Austrian Alps. Geomorphology 118 : Michlmayr, G., COHEN, Or, D., Sources and characteristics of acoustic emissions from mechanically stressed geologic granular media - A review. Earth-Sci. Rev., (submitted : 11/2011). Moore, P. L., Iverson, N. R., Brugger, K. A., COHEN, D., Hooyer, T. S., Jansson, P.,2011. Effect of a cold margin on ice flow and sediment transport at the terminus of Storglaciaren, Sweden, J. Glaciol., 57, 201, Moore, P. L., Iverson, N. R., COHEN, D., Ice flow across a warm-based/cold-based transition at a glacier margin. Ann. Glaciol., 50(52), 1-8. Moore, P. L., Iverson, N. R., COHEN, D., Conditions for thrust faulting in a glacier. J. Geophys. Res., 115, F02005, doi: /2009jf Moors, E. J., Groot, A., Biemans, H., van Scheltinga, T. C., Siderius, C., STOFFEL, C., Huggel, C., Wiltshire, A., Mathison, C., Ridley, J., Jacob, D., Kumar, P., Bhadwal, S., Gosain, A., Collins, D. N., Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India. Environmental Science and Policy 14 : Nilsson, C., S. GOYETTE, and L. Bärring, 2007 : Relating forest damage data to the wind field from high resolution RCM simulations : case study of Anatol striking Sweden in December Global and Planetary Change, 57, , doi: /j.gloplacha Osterkamp, W.R., Hupp, C.R., STOFFEL, M., in press. The interactions between vegetation and erosion : new directions for research at the interface of ecology and geomorphology. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. doi: /esp Perroud, M., S. GOYETTE, 2010 : Impacts of warmer climate on Lake Geneva water temperature profiles. Boreal Env. Res., 15, Perroud, M., S. Goyette, A. Martynov, M. BENISTON, O. Anneville, 2009 : Simulation of multi-annual thermal profiles in deep Lake Geneva : a one-dimensional lake-model intercomparison study. Limnology and Oceanography, 54, Person, M., V. Bense, D. COHEN, and A. Amlan, Models of ice sheet-hydrogeologic interactions. Geofluids. (submitted:l 10/2011). Person, M., Roy, P., Wright, H., Gutowski, W. J. Jr., Ito, E., Winter, T., Rosenberry, D., Cohen, D., Hydrologic response of the Crow Wing watershed, Minnesota, to Mid-Holocene climate change. Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull., 119, 3/4, , doi: /b Procter E., Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Neumann M., A regional reconstruction of debris-flow activity in the Northern Calcareous Alps, Austria. Geomorphology 132 :

7 Procter E., STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Neumann M., in press. Exploring debris-flow history and process dynamics using an integrative approach on a dolomitic cone in western Austria. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Díez-Herrero, A., STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Bodoque, J. M., Ballesteros J. A., Dating flash flood events by means of dendrogeomorphic analysis in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Spanish Central System). Geomorphology 118 : Schneuwly, D. M., STOFFEL, M., Changes in spatio-temporal patterns of rockfall activity on a forested slope a case study using dendrogeomorphology. Geomorphology 102 : Schneuwly, D. M., STOFFEL, M., Tree-ring based reconstruction of the seasonal timing, major events and origin of rockfall on a casestudy slope in the Swiss Alps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8 : Schneuwly, D. M., STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Formation and spread of callus tissue and tangential rows of resin ducts in Larix decidua and Picea abies following rockfall impacts. Tree Physiology 29 : Schneuwly, D. M., STOFFEL, M., Dorren, L. K. A., Berger, F., Three-dimensional analysis of the anatomical growth response of European conifers to mechanical disturbance. Tree Physiology 29 : Schwarz, M., COHEN, D., Or, D., Root-soil mechanical interactions during pullout and failure of root bundles. J. Geophys. Res., 115, F04035, doi: /2009jf Schwarz, M., COHEN, D., Or, D., Pullout tests of root analogs and natural root bundles : experiments and modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 116, F02007, doi: /2010jf Schwarz, M., D. COHEN, and D. Or, Spatial characterization of root reinforcement at stand scale : theory and case study, Geomorphology. (submitted : 08/2011). Sorg, A., Bugmann, H., Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Tree disturbance and forest dynamics on a cone affected by debris flows. Dendrochronologia 28 : Sorg, A., Bolch, T., Stoffel, M., Solomina, O., and Beniston, M., 2012: Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia). Nature Climate Change, accepted Stepanenko, V. M., S. GOYETTE, A. Martynov, D. Mironov, 2010 : The LakeMIP Lake Models Intercomparison Project. Boreal Env. Res., 15, STOFFEL, M., Dating past geomorphic processes with tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts. Dendrochronologia 26(1) : STOFFEL, M., Magnitude-frequency relationships of debris flows A case study based on field surveys and tree-ring records. Geomorphology 116 : STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, Tree-ring reconstruction of past debris flows based on a small number of samples possibilities and limitations. Landslides 6 : STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Tree-ring analysis in natural hazards research an overview. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8 : STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., What tree rings can tell about earth-surface processes. Teaching the principles of dendrogeomorphology. Geography Compass 3 : STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Tree-ring analysis in natural hazards research a preface. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10 : STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., and BENISTON, M., 2011 : Rainfall characteristics for periglacial debris flows in the Swiss Alps : past incidences potential future evolutions. Climatic Change, 105, STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., BENISTON, M., Rainfall characteristics for periglacial debris flows in the Swiss Alps : past incidences potential future evolutions. Climatic Change 105 : STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Leutwiler, A., Aeby, P., Large debris-flow events and overbank sedimentation in the Illgraben torrent (Valais Alps, Switzerland). Open Geology Journal 2 : STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Vazquez-Selem, L., Franco-Ramos, O., Palacios, D., Dendrogeomorphic dating of rockfalls on lowlatitude, high-elevation slopes : Rodadero, Iztaccíhuatl volcano, Mexico. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 36 : STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Widmer, S., Sorg, A., Spatio-temporal variability in debris-flow activity : a tree-ring study at Geisstriftbach (Swiss Alps) extending back to AD Swiss Journal of Geosciences 103 : STOFFEL, M., Casteller, A., Luckman, B.H., Villalba, R., in press. Spatio-temporal analysis of channel wall erosion in ephmeral torrents using tree roots An example from the Patagonian Andes. Geology. STOFFEL, M., Conus, D., Grichting, M.A., Lièvre, I., Maître, G., Unraveling the patterns of late Holocene debris-flow activity on a cone in the Swiss Alps : chronology, environment and implications for the future. Global and Planetary Change 60 : STOFFEL, M., Hitz, O.M., Snow avalanche and rockfall impacts leave different anatomical signatures in tree rings of Larix decidua Tree Physiology 28 : STOFFEL, M., Luetscher, M., Bollschweiler, M., Schlatter, F., Evidence of NAO control on subsurface ice accumulation in a 1200-yr old cave-ice sequence, St. Livres ice cave, Switzerland. Quaternary Research 72 : STOFFEL, M., Wilford, D.J., Hydrogeomorphic processes and vegetation : disturbance, process histories, dependencies and interactions. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. doi: /esp Szymczak, S., Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Dikau, R., Debris-flow activity and snow avalanches in a steep watershed of the Valais Alps (Switzerland) : dendrogeomorphic event reconstruction and identification of triggers. Geomorphology 116 : Toriani, D., Calanca, P.-L., Lips, M., Ammann, H., BENISTON M., and Fuhrer, J., 2007 : Regional assessment of climate change impacts on maize productivity and associated production risk in Switzerland. Regional Environmental Change, DOI /s z. Torriani, D.S., Calanca, P., BENISTON, M., and Fuhrer, J., 2008 : Hedging with Weather Derivatives to Cope with Climate Variability and Change in Grain Maize Production. Agricultural Finance Review, 68, Torriani, D.S., Calanca, P., Schmid, S., BENISTON, M, and Fuhrer, J., 2007 : Potential effects of changes in mean climate and climate variability on the yield of winter and spring crops in Switzerland. Climate Research, 34, Uhlmann, B., Goyette, S., and BENISTON, M., 2009 : Sensitivity analysis of snow patterns in Swiss ski resorts to shifts in temperature precipitation and humidity under condition of climate change. Int. Journal of Climatology, 29, Usbeck, T., Wohlgemuth, T., Pfister, Chr., Volz, R., BENISTON, M., and Dobbertin, M., 2009 : Wind speed measurements and forest damage in Canton Zurich (Central Europe) from 1891 to winter International Journal of Climatology, Van der Burght, L., STOFFEL, M., Bigler, C.J., Analysis and modelling of tree succession on a recent rockslide deposit. Plant Ecology 213 :

8 Verstraete, M. M., Brink, A. B., Scholes R. J., BENISTON, M., and Stafford Smith, M., 2009 : Climate change and desertification : Where do we stand, where should we go? Global and Planetary Change, 64, Worni, R., Huggel, C., STOFFEL, M., Pulgarin, B., in press. Challenges of modelling recent, very large lahars at Nevado del Huila Volcano, Colombia. Bulletin of Volcanology doi: /s Worni, R., STOFFEL, M., Casteller, A., Volz. C., Luckman, B.H., Huggel, C., in press. Analysis and dynamic modeling of a moraine failure and glacier lake outburst flood at Ventisquero Negro, Patagonian Andes (Argentina). Journal of Hydrology. Livres (monographies ou volumes édités) BENISTON, M., 2009 : Changements climatiques et impacts : du global au local. Presses Polytechniques et Universitaires Romandes (PPUR), Lausanne, Suisse, 256 pp. Biondi, F., STOFFEL, M., Tree-Ring Analysis of Environmental Change : Principles and Applications of Dendrochronology. Springer Praxis, Heidelberg, New York, ~290 pp. (submission date : 06/2012). Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Rudolf-Miklau, F., Tracking torrential processes on fans and cones Dating methods and their application for hazard and risk assessment. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, ~350 pp. (submitted : 08/2011). Shroder, J., Jr. Marston, R. A., STOFFEL, M., Treatise on Geomorphology : Mountain and Hillslope Geomorphology, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, vol. 7, ~460 pp. (submitted : 06/2011). STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D.R., Luckman, B.H., Tree rings and natural hazards : A state-of-the-art. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, 505 pp. ISBN Surdeanu, V., STOFFEL, M., Pop, O., Dendrogéomorphologie et dendroclimatologie : Méthodes de reconstitution des milieux géomorphologiques et climatiques des régions montagneuses. Presa Universitară Clujeană, Cluj-Napoca, 159 pp. ISBN Thompson, M., Garcia-Herrera, R., and BENISTON, M., 2008 : Seasonal Forecasts, Climatic Change and Human Health. Springer Publishers, Heidelberg, and New York, 232 pp. Chapitres de livres BENISTON, M., 2011 : Environmental Change in Mountain Regions. Chapter 36 of Handbook on Environmental Change, SAGE Publications, London, pp Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Dendrogeomorphology. In : Bollschweiler, M., Stoffel, M., Rudolf-Miklau, F. (eds.), Tracking torrential processes on fans and cones Dating methods and their application for hazard and risk assessment. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, in press. Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Hazards and risks on cones : checklist for practitioners. In : Bollschweiler, M., Stoffel, M., Rudolf- Miklau, F. (eds.), Tracking torrential processes on fans and cones Dating methods and their application for hazard and risk assessment. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, in press. Bollschweiler, M., STOFFEL, M., Schneuwly, D. M., Using event and minimum age dating for the assessment of hazards on a debrisflow cone. In : Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D. R., Luckman, B. H. (eds.) Tree rings and natural hazards : A state of the art. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, pp Della Marta, P., and BENISTON, M., 2008 : Distribution changes of seasonal mean temperature in observations and climate change scenarios. In : Broennimann, S., et al. (eds.), Climate Variability and Extremes during the past 100 Years. Advances in Global Change Research, Springer Publishers, pp Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Moran-Tejeda, E., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Zabalza, J., El Kenawy, A., and BENISTON, M., 2011 : Influence of Winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on climate and snow accumulation in the Mediterranean mountains. In : Vicente- Serrano, S. M., and Trigo, R. M. (eds.), "Hydrological, Socioeconomic and Ecological Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Mediterranean Region", Springer Publishers, pp Nairz, P., Sauermoser, S., Kleemayr, K., Gabl, K., STOFFEL, M., Margreth, S., Lawinen : Entstehung und Wirkung. In : Rudolf-Miklau, F., Sauermoser, S. (eds.) Handbuch Technischer Lawinenschutz. Ernst & Sohn, Berlin, STOFFEL, M., Debris-flow activity in the Ritigraben torrent (Valais Alps, Switzerland) : will there be less but bigger events in a future greenhouse climate? In : McInnes, R., Jakeways, J., Fairbank, H., Mathie, E. (eds.) Landslides and climate change : challenges and solutions. Taylor & Francis Group, London UK, pp STOFFEL, M., Frequency magnitude relationships, seasonality and spread of debris flows on a forested cone. In : Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D. R., Luckman, B. H. (eds.) Tree rings and natural hazards : A state-of-the-art. Springer, Heidelberg, pp STOFFEL, M., Dating of historical events : significance and benefits. In : Bollschweiler, M., Stoffel, M., Rudolf-Miklau, F. (eds.), Tracking torrential processes on fans and cones Dating methods and their application for hazard and risk assessment. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York. STOFFEL, M., Tree-ring based record of debris-flow dynamics and triggering rain storms at Ritigraben (Swiss Alps) since AD In : Bollschweiler, M., Stoffel, M., Rudolf-Miklau, F. (eds.), Tracking torrential processes on fans and cones Dating methods and their application for hazard and risk assessment. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, in press. STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D. R., Luckman, B. H., Tree rings and natural hazards. In : Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D. R., Luckman, B. H. (eds.) Tree rings and natural hazards : A state-of-the-art. Springer, Heidelberg, New York, pp STOFFEL, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D. R., Luckman, B. H., Whither dendrogeomorphology? In : Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D. R., Luckman, B. H. (eds.) Tree rings and natural hazards : A state-of-the-art. Springer, Heidelberg, New York, pp STOFFEL, M., Luckman, B. H., Butler, D. R., Bollschweiler, M., Dendrogeomorphology : Dating earth-surface processes with tree rings. In : Shroder, J., Jr., Hupp, C. R. Butler, D.R., (eds.), Treatise on Geomorphology : Biogeomorphology, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, vol. 12, in press. STOFFEL, M., Schneuwly, D., Bollschweiler, M., Assessing rockfall activity in a mountain forest Implications for hazard assessment. In : Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Butler, D. R., Luckman, B. H. (eds.). Tree rings and natural hazards : A state-of-the-art. Springer, Heidelberg, New York, pp