RAINFALL DATA MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS FOR DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTION. by Bonaventure Somé agroclimatologist

Transcription

1 RAINFALL DATA MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS FOR DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTION by Bonaventure Somé agroclimatologist

2 Le Centre régional AGRHYMET Ses missions Contribuer à la sécurité alimentaire et à l'augmentation de la production agricole dans les pays membres du CILSS Aider à l'amélioration de la gestion des ressources naturelles de la région du Sahel Assurer l'information et la formation des acteurs du développement et de leur partenaire dans les domaines de l'agro-écologie au sens large (agro-climatologie, hydrologie, protection des végétaux, ).

3 Le Centre régional AGRHYMET Ses missions Formation des cadres sahéliens dans les sciences et techniques applicables aux secteurs du développement agricole, de l'aménagement de l'espace rural et de la gestion des ressources naturelles : Protection des Végétaux, Hydrologie, agrométéorologie,..

4 Le Centre régional AGRHYMET Production agricole finale liée aux caprices du climat et aux ennemis des cultures Suivi et Avis sur les conditions de déroulement de la campagne agricole et de la période de saison sèche Évaluation des productions agricoles avant la récolte finale. Bilan céréalier des pays du Sahel

5 Sahelian Climatic Context A short rainy season : >3 months, 50 jours 70 jours 90 jours 110 jours 130 jours 150 jours 170 jours 190 jours 210 jours NOUAKCHOTT DAKAR BANJUL BISSAU BAMAKO OUAGA NIAMEY NDJAMENA Longueur de la saison des pluies dans les pays du Sahel

6 Very significant variability of the length of the growing season COEFFICIENT DE VARIATION EN POURCENT DE LA DUREE DE LA SAISON DES PLUIES DANS LE SAHEL NOUAKCHOTT DAKAR BANJUL NIAMEY BISSAU BAMAKO OUAGA NDJAMENA

7 1,75 1,50 1,25 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00-0,25-0,50-0,75-1,00-1,25-1,50-1, annual Index 2000 Downward trend in Seasonal Rainfall ( Y. L Hôte, B. Somé, J.P. Triboulet and G. Mahé, 2000)

8 Rainfall southward shift Baisse de la pluviométrie saisonnière dans les pays du Sahel Isohyètes moyennes choisies des périodes et isohyètes moyennes de la période en millimètres isohyètes moyennes de la période en millimètres NOUAKCHOTT DAKAR BANJUL NIAMEY BISSAU BAMAKO OUAGA NDJAMENA

9 Diminution de la pluviométrie saisonnière moyenne au Sahel. Périodes comparées : et mm 50 mm 100 mm 150 mm 200 mm 250 mm 300 mm 400 mm 500 mm 600 mm 800 mm NOUAKCHOTT DAKAR BANJUL BISSAU BAMAKO OUAGA. NIAMEY Carte spatialisée à partir des données de 450 postes pluviométriques provenant. des pays du CILSS NDJAMENA

10 The National Multidisciplinary Working Group : Gather different scientists with good abilities in agriculture, meteorology, water resources, Plant Protection, agricultural statistitics, Food nutritionists. Focus on the analysis of the rainy season to give awareness to decision makers Task performed : trips in the fields when necessary, issue a newsletter, advice peasants farmers Send data (agricultural, meteorological plant protection hydrolgy, food prices) and information to AGRHYMET

11 Data Collecting Network Meteorology Animal husbandry Hydrology CRA Agriculture Pest and Diseases DISSEMINATION ANALYSIS TRAINING CENTRALISATION BACKUP Hydrology Meteorology Agriculture Animal husbandry 9 NACs Pests and Diseases SATELLITE DATA GROUND DATA CILSS MEMBER COUNTRIES

12 Monitoring the agricultural and pastoral conditions at AGRHYMET Regional Center Need to forecast crops yields in order to : Best management of Cereal crop productions, Early start in food aids programs. Using the water balance simulation to obtain parameters allowing estimate of the yields. Later confirmation techniques based on agricultural census and surveys

13 Famine Early warning Get all information on time from the 9 CILSS member countries at the Regional AGRHYMET Centre : To bypass the problem : Rainfall Estimates from METEOSAT NDVI from NOAA

14 Workshop held in March 2001 with focus on the theme: «How to advise farmers across Sahelian and Sahelian-Saharian areas in order to cope with climatic, hydrological and phytosanitary risks» Farmers needs for agroclimatological information: Onset, development and end of the rainy season, start and end dates, intensity and frequency of extreme climatic conditions, climate predictions, weather forecasting ; Advice on planning farming activities, choices or options with regard to investments in farm inputs, optimum periods for action.

15 Outils méthodologiques utilisant en input l estimation des pluies Diagnostic hydrique des cultures avec les champs pluviométriques (DHC_CP) Identification des zones à risques (ZAR) Estimation de la biomasse herbacée Zones de développement des locusts

16 PREVISION SAISONNIERE DES PLUIES EN AFRIQUE DE L' OUEST, LE TCHAD ET LE CAMEROUN JUILLET- AOUT- SEPTEMBRE ZONE I ZONE III ZONE II

17 ZAR BUT : Identification des zones à risque conjoncturel pour la production agricole Inputs : la pluviométrie estimée à partir les images Météosat Caractérisation agroclimatique du territoire par des analyses des séries temporelles de la pluviométrie

18 Longueur de la saison 2000

19 Les échecs de semis en 2000 Les zones où les semis ont échoué avec possibilité de ressemer

20 DHC4

21 DHC 4

22 Produced information (ARC and MDWG) related to food security Prevention of damage due weather conditions and pests on harvests (Post-harvest storage) ; Building a national safety food stock; Market regulation (transfer from areas showing surpluses to deficient ones) ; Food aid projection; Taking actions aimed at mitigating food crises (off-season cropping, etc ).

23 Monitoring Locust conditions with Rainfall estimates

24 Produced information (MDWG) Related to agriculture Provisional sowing schedule ; Utilization of inputs or other factors of production (fertilizers, pesticides, farm credit ) based on predictions ; Identification of varieties adapted to rainy season Identification of dates enabling to perform farm work under optimum conditions based on shortterm meteorological predictions: weeding, fertiliser and pesticide applications, harvest planning ; Sowing of flood recessional and off-season crops.

25 produced information (MDWG) Related to animal husbandry Planning fodder harvest ; Organisation of rangelands for livestock; Planning transhumance (seasonal movement of livestock) ; Prevention of conflicts among farmers and breeders.

26 Climate Change Project Future Prospects Main objective: Strengthening the capacity of the AGRHYMET Regional Centre, the CILSS member countries and Sahelian populations in order to cope with the impacts of climate change. Expected Results: Improved understanding of the impacts of climate change on natural resource management and environmental protection in the Sahel; Strengthened capacity of the countries of the sub-region as well as the populations concerned in order to participate in global efforts for climate change adaptation ;.

27 Future Prospects (MDWG) Formats and media/tools used for disseminating information Opinions and warning via tables including comments, data sheets, texts, brochures, posters, films, markets, sketches, plays. In appropriate local languages Utilisation of classical media (radio, television, newspapers), NGOs, farmers organizations, extension services. rural RANET (Radio Network).