HOUSING EUROPE 2012 IMPACTS ET INTERACTIONS LOGEMENT SOCIAL POLITIQUES EUROPEENNES OU EN EST LE LOGEMENT SOCIAL EN EUROPE EN PERIODE DE CRISE?

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1 2012 IMPACTS ET INTERACTIONS LOGEMENT SOCIAL POLITIQUES EUROPEENNES OU EN EST LE LOGEMENT SOCIAL EN EUROPE EN PERIODE DE CRISE? SLRB, Midis du logement, 22 mars Claire.roumet@housingeurope.eu

2 Rapide présentation de CECODHAS - Housing Europe CECODHAS - Housing Europe fédération des bailleurs sociaux publics, cooperatives et associatifs un réseau de 44 fédérations nationales et régionales représentant opérateurs locaux and cooperatives de logement. Les membres du CECODHAS présent dans 19 EU pays gérent 25 million de logements. Nous avons des membres en Suisse et en Norvège 2

3 Notre Mission CECODHAS travailler à une Europe qui donne accès à tous à un logement abordable et décent dans des quartiers qui sont durables: socialement, économiquement environnementalement. 3

4 3 MAIN EUROPEAN UNION POLICIES SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC COHESION ANTI-POVERTY SOCIAL PROTECTION SSGIs LEGISLATION EU FUNDS OPEN METHOD OF CO- ORDINATION (OMC) BEST PRACTICES ENERGY ENVIRONMENT WATER LAND protection EU STANDARTS EU LEGISLATION RESEARCH EU FUNDS? GREEN VAT? INTERNAL MARKET COMPETITION STATE AIDS fiscal and economic policies LEGISLATION CONTROL NOTIFICATION DISPUTE ECJ RULING Economic surveillance HOUSING POLICY «FRIENDLY» HOUSING POLICY «COSTLY» HOUSING POLICY «FRAMELY» 4

5 Qu est-ce que le six pack Excessive Imbalances Procedure European Systemic Risk Board financial stability and macro & micro level external and internal imbalances Stability and Growth Pact fiscal policy European semester and the 2020 strategy growth enhancing structural reforms AND. the ongoing debate on EFSF/ESM and 5 Eurogroup goverance

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7 Le marché du logement sous surveillance Externes déséquilibres External positions (e.g. current accounts, net international investment positions) Competitiveness developments (e.g. REERs, ULCs)Export performance (e.g. export market shares) Internes déséquilibres Private sector indebtedness (e.g. credit, debt) Assets markets (e.g. housing) 7

8 The preventive arm of the EIP Policy response Alert mechanism Economic reading of early warning scoreboard indicators to identify Member States with potential risks In-depth review Analysis to distinguish between benign and harmful macroeconomic developments and to identify policy options No problem Procedure stops. Imbalance exists Commission/Council recommendations under Article Severe imbalance Commission/Council recommendation under Article

9 The Corrective Arm Member State is placed in Excessive Imbalance Position Corrective Action Plan Sufficient abeyance Surveillance of compliance with reform commitments Insufficient fine 0.1% of GDP Insufficient: interest bearing deposit Insufficient: Fine 0.1% of GDP 9

10 Identification of problematic imbalances Early warning Sustainability of macro-trends Deviation from equilibrium (competitiveness, credit growth, housing prices) Other factors (GDP growth, demography, catching-up, global imbalances, saving and investment imbalances, housing and other asset markets, shocks) Policy determinants (fiscal policy, financial regulation, labour market institutions) EIP Adjustment capacity Price and wage flexibility Labour market flexibility Financial market intermediation Balance sheet adjustment Spillovers Trade linkages Financial linkages Policy options Wage bargaining system Policy Financial market regulation Response Fiscal policy Growth and structural reforms 10

11 Les politiques liées au logement: surtout la régulation dérégulation financière Politique fiscale (trop favorable à l accès à la propriété Politiques Macro-prudentielle (Loan to Value Ratio, forex borrowing) Reforme structurelle des systèmes de protection sociale, adaptation au viellissement Obstable réglementaire à la construction (building permits) 11

12 La situation du logement social dans la crise Largest in NL, followed by AT and DK. UK, FR, SW and FI also have a large social/public housing sector On the contrary, no rental social housing in EL, very small share in CEE as well as PT, ES 12

13 Housing markets diversity in the EU Tenure split in the EU Estonia Romania Bulgaria Hungary Slovakia Lithuania Slovenia Spain Latvia Ireland Malta Portugal Greece Luxembourg Italy Cyprus Belgium 13 United Kingdom Finland Poland Netherlands France Austria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Sweden EU27

14 Trends in tenures Home-ownership in European OECD countries ( ) Social housing in selected EU countries ( ) 14

15 Les couts du logement: inabordables pour les ménages vulnérables Coûts du logement= 22.5% du revenu disponible (41% at risk of poverty) Housing overburden = 10.1% (37% at risk of poverty) Un tiers des ménages européens fait face à des couts de logement disproportionnés et note une dégradation de leur situation 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 41,0 22,5 10,0 0,0 for total population for population at risk of poverty 15

16 Des inégalités croissantes? OECD note un accroissement des inégalités Impact de la crise: dramatique dans certains pays, avec réduction des dépenses publiques 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 Housing costs as a percentage of disposable income, below 60% median income (i.e. at risk of poverty) above 60% median income gap in housing costs in disposable income between those with an income above 60% of the national average and those below is widening 16

17 Principaux facteurs de l augmentation du coût du logement accroissement des: Prix du logement Prix de l énergie Du manque de logement Nominal house prices increase Gas prices for household consumption 17

18 Visible effects High level of mortgage debt (from 32% in 98 to 52.4% in 2010) Increase in arrears (8.6% and 20%) Energy poverty (52.08 million people) Increase in arrears on: Utilities Mortgage/rent Mortgage indebtedness as % of GDP 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, ,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, European Union (27 countries) European Union (15 countries) 18 New Member States (12 countries)

19 Les listes d attente du logement social Huge waiting lists for social housing: in England, in FR, from to in 3 years in IE in IT Number of households Council waiting lists in England, Council waiting lists 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Year 19

20 Issues raising from the crisis Raising poverty and inequalities as consequence of the crisis = pressure on SH sector Declining socio-economic conditions of tenants = risk of declining income from rents, increased dependency from housing allowances Decreasing public support (direct and through taxation) Difficulties in access to credit Mechanisms linking social housing financing with housing market unstable 20

21 Lessons from the crisis? Housing market highly dysfunctional, private debt as important economic imbalance as public debt for economic stability Financial market instability causes and consequences of housing price bubbles: what regulation that would be supporting social housing providers For the moment only consensus on strict public finance s consolidation without growth policies Importance of intermediary/dedicated source of funding: France: subsidies from state and local authorities but limited. 2.5% employers grants or loans. Main source Livret A (household saving book) and important tax incentives Austria: public subsidies through grants and subsidized loans; commercial loans raised via special bonds by housing banks. 21