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1 !"#$"%& '('!))*+!')+,'(-*.% '/0,'"!#1 23'+!

2 2

3 !")'('!))*+!')+,'(-*.%# $"%& *!)')*+!()*"0$"%&3''*'',*+!(+"'* +/4 5 ' ( )**' $'( +' ) ( 6#'*()*+!#%!1 )'*#$"%& (, )* -*.-/01,.-2/0.-'/ 3 04 ( )*, 5 "6 " 361 +#"*)*+!#"*!)')*+!()*" 7,.8 9 ):/ ));, )) )); 6#$*!*)*+!#',*+!(+"'* <8 " <, =7 )) <> -, '7// <,?&, $, "@, A@'B C (2 #8 9: )8 ; <!, ' ' D@, =E=EF C C00> > >@@@G@)0000!DHI J@, <,, A., J/ C!8,8;<<=K())E=A K 8 " 1@.@/ < A DD$ C ),, ; 5 - A, D'$% 3

4 , 8;<<= K <, E=, C ;*, ;*' A.D&?'DHD/KL 4L ",, N("DDJJ$?'JJ% *, F, EC,81 1 8;<, O+&H45 C00> > >@@)0E0I I 0+&H0 4

5 #+%1!)!>;0"#'*()*+!#?%!1 )'*#$"%&!,, P ; DH D&@(Q,, R E,, D&' 0;A2;<BC Code Nom Superficie (1000 km2) Pop (1000 h.) Pop (1000 h) 1 Adamaoua Centre Est Extrême-Nord Littoral Nord Nord-Ouest Ouest Sud Sud-Ouest Total CAMEROUN

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7 #+%1!)!>0')+,'(-*#$"%& 2 G 25D@$4H $46 5D@$49$46 7

8 4 $4 ( (4 #4 &J@#46 J@$4I@((466 $ J@D J% + +% $@? '?@%& + J@D J% J+% +J% $@?+ 'J@?? J%?D+ J% $@& '?@?H? $@? J% %D?%% $@% '?@$? & +@ J% &&$ $H% $@J? 'J@H& %@ J% %& +J% $@?+ '?@H% : : : : : : : : % & %@J &&$ &D% $@HJ '&@% % J@+ %& D% $@$H 'J@+ % H +@H?%?% $@H '?@++ % D %@H ++& +?% $@?J Y = log (Fij/(Pi*Pj)) Y = -1.5 X R 2 = X = log 2 27 K$4I@(8(46LJ 9;8FM@#469;8EC@J =N 6 ::::::::::::::::::::@ ::::::::::::::::::::@ -SGT:@@@@@G@.G/ :: 8

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

10 @56 ' 5 ' 5 10

11 HHDKA <> )(KB )8 </./ <, E,,, V=V * ),, <))WCF V, E, V);", ), ;@<, E, R; FR;, <, E)E*.?/ <),,, E),,, F@.&/ <;,,,,, <),,, E*,, ), ;=!#8;<BBL ')6 ), *,, 5 > > C 1 7!R R 4J I#4!GC);G C ((GC, = GC= 1 7 R $4JO8(8(4I#4 - GC, E, G UCE, E GC* G GC* G <, ) $4JO8@(6 β; 8@(46 β 8@#46 9α 6 $4JO8@(6 β; 8@(46 β 8D 9α#4 6 $4J8+8/48#48 9α)4 C27 Q 346I#4 C27 5)/ 11

12 @6$*!&&0"'1 *!%#"?!"+,*,'G*)*', E*;,,, ";*, C <;)) ;,, ;G, ;)),, ; < E, )+%$$'6 C,, E ;. ;,, ), ;)* ;),. /@ <, F;, 12

13 #+%1!)!>F0")'+*-(+)-T $+!#1!)"(+%' +1 ('!#')1 +#U"*'"$"%& Hypothèse 1. Les échanges entre deux lieux sont proportionnels à leurs capacités d'émission et de réception Capacités des lieux à générer ou attirer des flux Flux Hypothèse 2. L'importance des échanges entre deux lieux diminue lorsque la distance augmente km Distance km Hypothèse 3. Deux lieux appartenant à la même entité territoriale ont des flux plus importants que deux lieux séparés par une frontière Frontière 13

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

15 $C* )*, +#";0$$)#(*)#?1 **+!)#'()*+! - 70 ",, ; 1 +#";0$4J O8(8(4OJ ΣΣ4$4IΣΣ4(( <.U/, =;, E),,, )*,, ;, E@ ;*, C ΣΣG- GTH++HH., E, / ΣΣGGT$@*% J., E; E))/ OJE8B=D; 9; 0,, ;=*,, N Q, ', =',, N Q,.)/ ',, (.)/@,, ;E;), GC@ N : N NX N5 N ( (5 X - * E $%D& D$ +%$? $J % D+ +D? $HJ $H$ $HH -* &$& D %& HJJ && D+D JJJ +J+ D 8 J% %+ D?H +%% '+J 'D+'?JJ '&% '%& $ 15

16 <(X <? ;C? $;0' 5D./L,.E/L E', Intensité des flux : Fij/(PiPj) 2.0E E E E E Distance en km (Dij) Intensité des flux : Fij/(PiPj) 1.0E E E E Distance en km (Dij) X,? 5D 5 G, E7/9 2 ;* ;., G, E=, ', * +#"0$$)#"#*)!@*!)')*+!()*"6-70 A ) ))C Y- G0.G/ZT@.G/2E.;= E', / - G0GT* Y@.G/2EZ -GT*.E/@@G@.G/., =[/ 1 +#"0$4JO8(8(48@#46 9α 9α L XTY-G0.G/Z\T.G/ X))T'@+\'J@D. $ T?]/ X;(X<$C$4JE8E=8; 9C 8(8(48#4 9;8E; 16

17 0 X5D $M4QE AE+C(,, = - SG N N NX N5 N ( (5 X A N +HD JDH +?JH $+JJ HJ $D DJJ?&% +J +H$ N +HD +&& +?$ J+ &&H +?? +J? D %& J$ NX JDH +&& &&$ ++? J% $D% $&%?J %$ J%? N5 +?JH +?$ &&$ H%& &JD?$D +H $J?D +$ N $+JJ J+ ++? H%& $? +D& &+ J$$ $J+ H+? ( HJ &&H J% &JD $? +$?% $JD $%?$ $&H? (5 $D +?? $D%?$D +D& +$?% HJ% J?% &J& %+J X DJJ +J? $&% +H &+ $JD HJ% $J? H %$?&% D?J $J J$$ $% J?% $J? $%? J +J %& %$?D $J+?$ &J& H $%? J%D A +H$ J$ J%? +$ H+? $&H?%+J %$ J J%D H++HH X, 27? )) )))* E)* C'4J $49$M4 AEJC8,,, = 8 G N N NX N5 N ( (5 X A N % % $DJ '?$+ & '&J 'JH& '?JD '$& '&? '?DJ N %+ % +D% D '?+ H? ' 'D$ 'HH % J?H NX +? % &?% &J J& D 'J? JJ $HJJ N5?$ $ HH% % &%% ' & '?H '?H ++ $&D$ N H& D +& J&D % '?? '&? 'J&$ '$H '$ '& ( ++ &&D $&$?+ 'J?H % '&% '$ 'H$ '$+ '$?D& (5?+ $+H +$?+ '+D '% % '$J 'H$ '$& 'JD+ X '$& '&H ' '?+ 'JJ'J$ '$H % 'J& '+J+ '+& ' $ % '$+J '$J '&JD J$J % $J 'H? J$$ %% D% +??D '&H J+ HD $H$ % $D+ A JD$+ +&D $&$J $$$ 'H'+?D '+?& '$$%H'$&+ '?D % 1 2 <;",,, E, W"., /,, =@X ))2/? 17

18 AE?C!",,, 8 (E! N '?DJ JD$+ ++$H &? N J?H +&D J&$& NX $HJJ $&$J?J&H '$$% N5 $&D$ $$$ +D? 'J% N '& 'H 'H& '? ( '$?D& '+?D '&H 'DD? (5 'JD+ '+?& '?%% '$%$+ X '+J+ '$$%H '?&$% $%? 'H? '$&+ '+J 'H $D+ '?D &+ '$$ $D <;")*,, /7@ 568 )) )) '/ - G A A!G - G DH% H& $%&? &HD A?D$&?&H &$+ % J?D A D%& &?JH$ H++HH A H++HH - SG A A!G - SG HDJ +& $D???%&? A +& JH$ &J++ % $&+$+ A $D?? &J++ H++HH -G0-S G A H++HH A A!G - G0- S %@&& % %@?? 18

19 @#61 )''*)+'*"6-70 A FF;, Q, E.!GT/, E )).!GT%/@ <;, ) )* 'E * )*'EF;))E=.γ/ 1 +#"E0$4JO8(8(48@#46 9α 8γ < )* 'E )E 55? D 9/)FCβ * J8FF8 < )* 'E ) 55? D 9/FCβ * J;8;8 " A?55 /7, E * )) *, ;, ))* 'E* )* 'E γjβ * Iβ * J;8;I8FFJ8;< X 2/ 5 7 9A ; J= N A, ;, )C ; );, Q, E@ <;", =+* )* ),, =E, E)GF=)@ F, ;;))E=* ( D A 0!8,8;<<=K())E=A K8 " 1@.@/<A DD$C),, ; 5 - "''@ A, D'$%, 8 ;<<= K <, E=, C ;*, ;*' A.D&?'DHD/ K L N * 4L ",, N("DDJJ$?'JJ% 19

20 #+%1!)!>C0""+*#'*"")G $2 ' 8"5? *GF.( G /,. G /G@ Loi de Reilly (version initiale) : A ij = M j 2 D ij!c< E;!'.%, ; E?%U, /<., ; E?%U, /^!!'_ T%%%%%%%0.?%/ $ T===!!'_< T%%%%%%0.?%/ $ T= X;!)<@ 8 ", ;),?/+ ;)*EFE( ( E C D ab M a D Oa 2 = M b D Ob 2 D Oa = M 1+ b M a C./<.E/$%%U,, ;E;)F$%%0.2 %@/T;FO2@X,, E ) ; <C Attraction en hab./km Att. Paris.E/ (27 ' Att. Lille X;,, ;* 8 "Q ;)).* F $/ ;)),.* )F$/@;`), C Loi de Reilly (version ultérieure) : A ij = A ij = M j α avec α compris entre 0 et D ij 20

21 ./ =, 8 ",,,,, a F, ;)F V 2 5@-%$$ ;,, * 52 // 8 ",,,, )) ;@<E=, 7 ))), C "/72-55, EU@@G@@U, G :( U,, G : 3 EE G,, )G^,, G,, ; ), 8"C+ 4 J1 4 I@# 4 6 α <,, F,, C( JΣ O + O < EE F ;,, C 4 J+4IΣ O + O D2? 3 EAU@ 3 ;)^ ) <,,., $/ \ )55 %%%%% $@? $@? W?%%%% J@? &@? #/ $%%%% $@? $@? ) $%%%% $@? H@? <;7 )), FR *.`, /R;)).`EEE, ;* /@ 21

22 #+%1!)!>B0"(+)!)*"#(+(%")*+!#)Q ') ;, E=, >, ; 8"@!,, ).2?55/ F,, ),,.2 2/@ D20X )!N@X;;", E ^ ( 5,! N! N Y%V%Y +%%% %%% +%%% %%% Y%V$%Y +%%% $%%% &%%% +%%% Y$%V+%Y %%% J%%% %%% %%% Y+%VJ%Y +%%% %%% %%%% H%%% AE=, *, F) C!", ; E, ;N" ; E, E, * ;!);N@ ;,, E = ; P)@X, ;)),, C n P j D ij Première formule du potentiel de population : Pot i = j=1 D2 X, FY%V%YT?VY%V$%YT?V@C!T.+%%%0?/2.+%%%0?/2.%%%0$?/2.+%%%0+?/T<F8C NT.%%%0?/2.$%%%0?/2.J%%%0$?/2.%%%0+?/TBC8 ; " = > A 2D? " )@ 22

23 A)" 0G;), > C n Formule générale du potentiel : Pot i = P j. f(d ij ) j=1 D2?,, ', F ), ))@ Map. 5.1 POPULATION POTENTIAL IN 1990 (calculated with gaussian neighboorhood / span 100 km) 70 N millions of inhabitants N N N 30 N 20 W 10 W 0 10 E 20 E 30 E 40 E (c) C. Grasland, CNRS-Equipe P.A.R.I.S. (1998) 0 km 500 km 1000 km 23

24 Map. 5.2 POPULATION POTENTIAL IN 1990 (calculated with gaussian neighboorhood / span 250 km) 70 N millions of inhabitants N N N N 20 W 10 W 0 10 E 20 E 30 E 40 E (c) C. Grasland, CNRS-Equipe P.A.R.I.S. (1998) 0 km 500 km 1000 km C C00> > >@@@)000> 0*@,./ 24

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26 ./ 3 = $. J/^3 " =' ), ^ E /!-$'"QE, F@'^.E/XFE\,,, F, )*.- $'E/@<))* E%@ J 98<E&H E8 3 G, ^<')^ \R, =.Uα, =+, )* ), E@ 1 7E0$M 4 JO8+ 8# 4 α./arf, =+-$'$'E =8A P* 8./, RE, )* - SG,., =+/.- G'- SG/@.E/ R)),,,.?/@3 '^,, R' * ^./ 3, =Q,, "^ 26

27 ;0!2 2 2;<BC ;B8( #; 4!(!8,= (9!( -!8XAX # c!<,f (X(X E(!X'N!5 X #E <XL X5 A7!8 4 -; N!(NX AX =(N8 #= (!X'!5! - 7! A'5 c!( F145! #F (!X'!1! -E (5 X! 3;7! A'!5!L! # (!X'A!5!L! -= (4-4 3<c4 ; (X 5 LX -F 5 3E(N!( 5 c!( - 5 X 5 3=(-X E!5!L!'(!84A4( *; B!A<XNX 3F 1 $+%!#*@6= M X 8 4./ * 5 A( 3 5 X5 LAc<< $; N5 X *E X!5 3C5 X5 LA(-X (X$ -!8X :; -!cx 3B5 X5 LAX $E (!X'<X A4 : (!5 ;NX (N!A5 LXcX $= (!X'8 :E (( 7! A'5 X5 L,; N 4 := 5 4!5 Ec!, X5 L!'(!5 A 5 L =<X(AB8(,E (5 A7 ( 27

28 )/;01 2 2A!2 ( 2 2 # XXX88 XXXX8 XXXX8 XXXX8 2 ;<BC A8 Y XXXX XXXX88 XXXX8 XXXX8 ( + $4 #4 $4I( $4I+ $M4 $49$M4! B8(?D%%% DJ%% &%% ++%!$ -!8 XAX JJ%%% H%% $%% J+%!+ (!X'N!5 X D+%%% &D%%?%% +%!J (N8 $%%% H%% %% JJ%!? 145! &H%%% $D%% $?%% JJ% N 7! A'!5!L! H%%%% D?%% J%%?% N$ <c4 $J%%%% %%% +H&%% J% N+ (N!( $%%%%?D%% $$$%% &% NJ (- X J%%%??+%% +%+%% $% 3F 1 $+%!#*@6 C= ; N& 5 X5 LAc<< %%%%% J%% J%%% H% N 5 X5 LA(-X (X H%%% $JJ%% H%%% %% NH 5 X5 LAX D%%% +?+%% ++%%?% NX (N! A5 L XcX H$%%%?+%% D%% JJ% ] ] J%%?%% $ 7! A'5 X5 L?%%%% $HH%% &$%% $J% J] $$] +?%% $%% + c! +%%% $%% J%% ++% ] ] $%% $%% J <X(AB 8 (?J%%% $%+%% $H%% +%% $] J] $%%% H%% 4!(!8 +HJ%%%?H%% $D%% H$% ]?] $+%% &%% $ c! < $$D%%% &&D%% H%% D% ] +] $%% 'D%% + <XL X5 A7!8 4 $D%%% ++%% J%% D% %] +] J%% % J (!X'!5! +?J%%%?J+%% $$%% H+% ] J] $%% %%? (!X'!1! $%%%% $+J%% D%% H?% %] J] D%% % & (!X'A!5!L! J$?%%% +?$%% &%% H% %]?] J%% $%% (X 5 LX ++H%%% DJ?%% JH%% $$% J] &] $?%% $+%% $ 5 c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c!( J%%% &H%% H&%% $% &] +] D?%% 'D%% 7 + (5 X! $?%%%% H$%%?D%% $J% &] $%] DD%% &%%% 7 J (4-4 +?%%% +$+%% +&%% $% D] $J] H+%% ++%% 7? 5 H$%%% +%% $$%% %?] &] +%%% 'H%% 7 & 5 X 5 $H%%% +J%% &D%% $% $] H]?$%% %% 4 B!A<XNX $&%%% +$J%% %J%% % H] +$]??%% JD%% 4$ 5 A(?D%%% JH%% +%%% J% H] +] HJ%% J&%% 4+ X!5 D+%%% $?%% &H%% % ] $?] J&%% $$%% B -!cx $?%%% +?&%% +H%% $&% $] ] J%%% '$%% B$ (!5 $H%%% J+%%% $?%% +$% ] &] J%%% '?%% B+ (( $H$%%% JJ%% J?%% $&% $] %]?%% '&%% BJ 5 4!5 D%%% +H%% $%% +% %] ] +%% '%% ) %?J%%% $%?%% +?%% &JH% 28

29 $;0' 2 2;<BC 2/ 2 2A Volume de migration vers Yaoundé ( ;<BC Population en 1987 E0!2/2 A 29

30 $0' 2 2 2A Y./=, 60% probabilité de migration vers Yaoundé 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% E/=E', Distance à Yaoundé (en km) 100% probabilité de m igration ve rs Yaoundé 10% 1% Dis tance à Yaoundé (e n k m ) 30

31 =0(// 2 A 31

32 F0'2 A 32

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